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BamaATL

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Everything posted by BamaATL

  1. Again, look at where the vast majority of these votes are. 40% of the non voter is from 5 counties (out of 159 total), some of whom have a historical percentage of Democratic margin of 90% (each county varies some as low as 60%). In any event, it's reasonable to believe that while this vote varies it a bit, it doesn't deviate dramatically from the area. For example, in Dekalb County, which is an 85% Democratic County, 40k worth of Trump voters didn't just suddenly move there. This is a heavy turnout, in strongly Democratic areas of previously non engaged or low engaged voters. Again, of the 180k out of 492k I pointed, out I only went into 5 major Democratic counties, there are others. The nonvoter turnout in Democratic counties is easily half of the statewide total. Even if Republicans take 55% to 45% everywhere else, they can't overcome 70% to 30% in the Democratic areas.
  2. Georgia EV overnight update 1. 2.791 million votes now cast 2. 2020 Early Votes now stand at 2.11 million (200k shy of 2020) 75.5% of total 3. 2020 Day of Voters 192k 6.9% of total 4. 2020 non voters 493k 17.6% of total this is the story, young voters 18-29 lead this with 163k. Among previous non voters, Clayton, Dekalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett make up approximately 180k. 5. Females outpace males by 320k, but remain at 55.5%
  3. Big sticklers for fire code in that outdoor arena.
  4. Looks packed. Forsyth County is about 30 miles due north of the perimeter of Atlanta, very much part of Metro Atlanta, and very much Republican. I've taken dumps with more heat than this.
  5. Drew Pyne is having a tough day.
  6. You have to consider where that vote is coming from, and over half of it is in Democratic strong holds (I've been highlighting Atlanta, but there are others in the state. At any rate, 40k worth of people in Dekalb County, that went 90% Democratic didn't just show up to voter Trump. Some of them will, but the split should be somewhere near representative, think worst case 80-20. Well that's a big difference, and net positive of easily 30k. In a state decided by 11k last time, that's the story.
  7. I went to watch that and clicked on the Spanish one, honestly, way better than Tessatore, and my Spanish is pretty awful.
  8. Brady Cook gonna go, thought he was out.
  9. I don't think that's it, at least not entirely. What you have is the Maga people that are big, loud and stupid, and they've gotten the media's attention. As a result, and because of 2016 and polling misses, these folks are grossly skewing the narrative. Basically, what everyone, and I mean everyone seems to have forgotten is that the silent majority is what really carries the day, not the loud and brash. That is what is under-represented in everyone's modeling. It's fairly ironic as well, for most of my life, every time I'v heard someone mention the silent majority in the past when discussing politics its been someone making a Republican point; that isn't the reality this time around.
  10. Well, I could do a wrestling theme to it if you want. We could have Abdullah the Butcher land, the Dog faced Gremlin land, DDP land, etc. Side note, in Ben Hill, Abdullah owns a house of ribs and Chinese food. I'm not making that up either.
  11. Focus group input on naming is fine, I hadn't figured out anything else to call it. One of the issues with the other names is that it implies all of Metro is balanced in a similar way, it isn't, not even close. Metro is so large, but it's also that you can go ten miles in one direction either way, and the political reality is night and day. For example, I live in Cherokee County, where it's a 60/40 Republican tilt. However, I live 3 miles from Cobb County, which goes exactly the opposite. When I refer to fortress Atlanta, it's just the democratic strongholds of the metro area.
  12. Well, no worries, our expedient legal process should help us sort thru all this by 2047.
  13. That's the spike the football moment, what you do is post up there once 270 is crossed and give a speech.
  14. Georgia overnight data dump highlights: 1. 2.614 million votes have now been cast 2 Women outpace men by 300k 55.5% to 44% (a .1% uptick from yesterday) 3. Vote totals against 2020 - EV voters make up 76.4%, day of voters 6.6%, and non voters 17% The 2020 early voters now make up 2 million of the 2.614 million, while the day of make up 174k. The big question then, who are the 444k non voters from 2020 (this will determine the winner)? Demographic breakdown of the non voter White - 237k Black - 107k Hispanic - 22k Asian - 19k Other - 59k By Gender Female - 233k Male - 199k Other/Unknown -12k By Age 18-29 - 140k 30-39 - 64k 40-49 - 55k 50-64 - 89k 65+ - 88k Unknown - 9k Fortress Atlanta 2020 Non Voters Clayton County - 10k Cobb County - 31k Dekalb Couny - 30k Douglas County - 6.2k Fulton County - 58k Gwinett County - 38k So the curious thing this week will be if we see a voting turnout that runs out of steam. We've now exceeded EV turnout by 300k from 2020, and 2020 EV voters that haven't voted only represent about 325k. I've been expecting a bit of slow down, but yesterday proved to be the exact opposite. It now appears that Georgia will easily exceed 3 million votes cast by Friday, the end of EV. The real question is how high this total will actually go. Is 3.5 million possible? Well I'd have certainly told you no before all this, but now I think it's almost assured. The engagement is fantastic, and I certainly believe that favors us strongly. Apathy is our enemy, and I don't see any.
  15. I actually preferred the Documentary Now! version.
  16. Nope, you are pretty much spot on.
  17. Also, never forget that Woodward sat on Trump telling him how awful Covid was going to be so he could sell some books. Fuck him.
  18. To me, for all the people saying she should do Rogan's show it has always come back to this. Basically, to what end? At least to me, it's always struck as akin to saying she should go do an interview or something with Clay Travis.
  19. He must have gotten a Groupon for empty regional commuter air hangars.
  20. In positive news, the AJC is reporting that EV in Georgia has crossed 2.5 million ballots cast, more than 50% of the total turnout in 2020. No raw data dump until tomorrow, but at a minimum that means 200k voted today.
  21. Joe Rogan is more apt to ask about the government controlling the weather than he is to ask about our nuclear deployment, but yeah, that's a good point.
  22. Just imagine a racist walking up and down stairs.
  23. Sure looks that way, also looks like one that isn't full.
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