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Posts posted by BamaATL
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3 minutes ago, quigley said:I agree with you that 493k 2020 non-voters is the story. But who are these people? Most of them (2/3), are not young so had the opportunity to vote in 2020 but didn't.
Is Stacy Abrams machine mobilizing a bunch of new voters, again? Has Roe energized more women? Or has Elon placed brain control devices in a bunch of Georgia Bulldog fans?
Is this good or bad news?
Again, look at where the vast majority of these votes are. 40% of the non voter is from 5 counties (out of 159 total), some of whom have a historical percentage of Democratic margin of 90% (each county varies some as low as 60%). In any event, it's reasonable to believe that while this vote varies it a bit, it doesn't deviate dramatically from the area. For example, in Dekalb County, which is an 85% Democratic County, 40k worth of Trump voters didn't just suddenly move there. This is a heavy turnout, in strongly Democratic areas of previously non engaged or low engaged voters.
Again, of the 180k out of 492k I pointed, out I only went into 5 major Democratic counties, there are others. The nonvoter turnout in Democratic counties is easily half of the statewide total. Even if Republicans take 55% to 45% everywhere else, they can't overcome 70% to 30% in the Democratic areas.
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Georgia EV overnight update
1. 2.791 million votes now cast
2. 2020 Early Votes now stand at 2.11 million (200k shy of 2020) 75.5% of total
3. 2020 Day of Voters 192k 6.9% of total
4. 2020 non voters 493k 17.6% of total this is the story, young voters 18-29 lead this with 163k. Among previous non voters, Clayton, Dekalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett make up approximately 180k.
5. Females outpace males by 320k, but remain at 55.5%
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Just now, Js1 said:
There were 1.3 million people waiting outside. They won’t let them in! - Trump
Big sticklers for fire code in that outdoor arena.
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11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
Res ipsa loquitur
Looks packed. Forsyth County is about 30 miles due north of the perimeter of Atlanta, very much part of Metro Atlanta, and very much Republican.
I've taken dumps with more heat than this.
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14 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:
Thank god we can stop pretending Mizzou deserves to be ranked. They are Starkel.
Drew Pyne is having a tough day.
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39 minutes ago, quigley said:
Fantastic data gathering, but i disagree with your optimism.
440K new voters with only a third being young doesn't fill me with hope. I'd love to be wrong with this election proving that get out the vote really matters, but I don't think that's the most likely way this thing ends.
You have to consider where that vote is coming from, and over half of it is in Democratic strong holds (I've been highlighting Atlanta, but there are others in the state. At any rate, 40k worth of people in Dekalb County, that went 90% Democratic didn't just show up to voter Trump. Some of them will, but the split should be somewhere near representative, think worst case 80-20. Well that's a big difference, and net positive of easily 30k. In a state decided by 11k last time, that's the story.
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2 minutes ago, Crapinon said:
I kinda like the Skycast broadcast. No announcers and you get the same view the QB has as the play develops.
I went to watch that and clicked on the Spanish one, honestly, way better than Tessatore, and my Spanish is pretty awful.
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Brady Cook gonna go, thought he was out.
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3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:
If Trump wins he's found a new way to do it by somehow getting the least enthusiastic base I can ever remember in any election in my adult life to get out there and carry him to a win.
I don't think that's it, at least not entirely. What you have is the Maga people that are big, loud and stupid, and they've gotten the media's attention. As a result, and because of 2016 and polling misses, these folks are grossly skewing the narrative.
Basically, what everyone, and I mean everyone seems to have forgotten is that the silent majority is what really carries the day, not the loud and brash. That is what is under-represented in everyone's modeling. It's fairly ironic as well, for most of my life, every time I'v heard someone mention the silent majority in the past when discussing politics its been someone making a Republican point; that isn't the reality this time around.
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6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:
It’s been how many elections now where Atlanta is spotlighted, and I still can’t read or hear Cobb county without thinking of the big boss man being introduced.
Well, I could do a wrestling theme to it if you want. We could have Abdullah the Butcher land, the Dog faced Gremlin land, DDP land, etc.
Side note, in Ben Hill, Abdullah owns a house of ribs and Chinese food. I'm not making that up either.
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40 minutes ago, Bullneck said:
Focus group input on naming is fine, I hadn't figured out anything else to call it. One of the issues with the other names is that it implies all of Metro is balanced in a similar way, it isn't, not even close. Metro is so large, but it's also that you can go ten miles in one direction either way, and the political reality is night and day. For example, I live in Cherokee County, where it's a 60/40 Republican tilt. However, I live 3 miles from Cobb County, which goes exactly the opposite. When I refer to fortress Atlanta, it's just the democratic strongholds of the metro area.
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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:
The goal is not to win court cases or even the election. The goal is to inject enough disinformation, confusion, and lawfare into the system so that the House, state legislatures, and local officials can just appoint DJT president.
Well, no worries, our expedient legal process should help us sort thru all this by 2047.
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1 minute ago, Radical Larry said:
She should hold a rally at Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
That's the spike the football moment, what you do is post up there once 270 is crossed and give a speech.
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- Popular Post
Georgia overnight data dump highlights:
1. 2.614 million votes have now been cast
2 Women outpace men by 300k 55.5% to 44% (a .1% uptick from yesterday)
3. Vote totals against 2020 - EV voters make up 76.4%, day of voters 6.6%, and non voters 17%
The 2020 early voters now make up 2 million of the 2.614 million, while the day of make up 174k. The big question then, who are the 444k non voters from 2020 (this will determine the winner)?
Demographic breakdown of the non voter
White - 237k
Black - 107k
Hispanic - 22k
Asian - 19k
Other - 59k
By Gender
Female - 233k
Male - 199k
Other/Unknown -12k
By Age
18-29 - 140k
30-39 - 64k
40-49 - 55k
50-64 - 89k
65+ - 88k
Unknown - 9k
Fortress Atlanta 2020 Non Voters
Clayton County - 10k
Cobb County - 31k
Dekalb Couny - 30k
Douglas County - 6.2k
Fulton County - 58k
Gwinett County - 38k
So the curious thing this week will be if we see a voting turnout that runs out of steam. We've now exceeded EV turnout by 300k from 2020, and 2020 EV voters that haven't voted only represent about 325k. I've been expecting a bit of slow down, but yesterday proved to be the exact opposite. It now appears that Georgia will easily exceed 3 million votes cast by Friday, the end of EV. The real question is how high this total will actually go. Is 3.5 million possible? Well I'd have certainly told you no before all this, but now I think it's almost assured.
The engagement is fantastic, and I certainly believe that favors us strongly. Apathy is our enemy, and I don't see any.
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22 minutes ago, safe sex said:
Awesome restoration. See it in a theater if you can.
I actually preferred the Documentary Now! version.
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5 minutes ago, CTC2 said:
I’m old. I’ve gotten where I avoid things that make me dumber (this board excepted) and try to listen to people who are smarter than me.
As I said, I’m old. I’d rather watch classic boxing matches from the 70’s than UFC. I think social media has rotted our brains.
My impression is that Joe Rogan (who I can’t think of as much greater than his role on that show where people ate maggots), is not someone who would make me smarter by listening to him. Maybe unfairly, I don’t expect that most of his audience is smarter than him.
But, maybe I’m just old.Nope, you are pretty much spot on.
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1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:
Meh, every big city newspaper in TX has endorsed D's for years and it don't make a shit. Anyone waiting for the Washington Post to weigh in with an endorsement to make up their mind who to vote for doesn't need to be voting in the first place.
Also, never forget that Woodward sat on Trump telling him how awful Covid was going to be so he could sell some books. Fuck him.
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7 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:
Ok I’m gonna let you in on a secret. No bro who listens to Rogan is undecided, nor will their minds be changed at this point in the race. A lightbulb isn’t going to suddenly go off in their head. Shit, I bet the majority of them aren’t even going to actually vote. She needs to spend the next 10 days getting her people out. Not chasing the mythical white bro vote
To me, for all the people saying she should do Rogan's show it has always come back to this. Basically, to what end? At least to me, it's always struck as akin to saying she should go do an interview or something with Clay Travis.
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5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:
SDE …
He must have gotten a Groupon for empty regional commuter air hangars.
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In positive news, the AJC is reporting that EV in Georgia has crossed 2.5 million ballots cast, more than 50% of the total turnout in 2020. No raw data dump until tomorrow, but at a minimum that means 200k voted today.
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Just now, immamac said:
She's the sitting Vice President. She can't do a fucking no limits podcast. Are these people fucking crazy?
Joe Rogan is more apt to ask about the government controlling the weather than he is to ask about our nuclear deployment, but yeah, that's a good point.
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2 minutes ago, quigley said:
I need to see what he looks like walking up and down stairs.
Just imagine a racist walking up and down stairs.
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1 minute ago, wood said:
LOL. Is that in a hangar here in Austin?
Sure looks that way, also looks like one that isn't full.
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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:
Those damn Amish. Probably didn’t answer their cell phones either to clear it up.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
in Cloak Room
Posted
This is correct.