BamaATL

Honestly, I'm just hoping that they start making bath tub vodka full of impurities and they start killing themselves with it. I get the point about cottage manufacturing earlier mentioned, and it's benefit to the Germans in WW2, but these aren't the Germans.

Stop following me around. You are blowing up my spot man.

Popular vote: Harris 83.3 Million Trump - 71.1 Million Electoral College - Harris easily north of 300.

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread. The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap? I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere. However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically. So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening). There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed? This is bumpkiss. The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.

Georgia over night data dump takeaways: 1. 1.936 million have now voted. (A bit lower than the news reported last night, I'll give them a bit of leeway). 2. 1.522 million voted early in 2020 3. Women now outpaces men in voting by 214k or 55.3 to 44.2% 4. Election day voters from 2020 represent 110k of the turnout or 5.7% 5. 2020 non voters represent 304k or 15.7% So where are the non 2020 voters coming from? Democratic Strongholds - Bibb County 2.2k Chatham County - 10k Clayton County - 6.4k Cobb County - 22k Dekalb County - 20k Fayette County - 5k Fulton County - 39k Gwinnett County - 23k Muscogee County - 4.8k Richmond County - 3.4k So of the new votes, regardless of demographics, 133k come from major democratic strongholds. (This obviously doesn't include every Democratic county - there are 159 total county here, just the major ones). Based on that, my guess is that at least 50% of the 2020 nonvoters are in Democratic areas.

I'm 45, I think he broke in the year I was born. I remember being in little league several years later and every coach trying to teach you his delivery.

If they'd have only done the meeting in the bunker, Tom would've gotten the job done.

Fantastic article, well worth the read.

Not sure, but the sure as hell are whining about it on the radio, which is bizarre considering. As it relates to the conversation, a disappointing number thus far from that area is non voters from 2020 (i.e. students). Thus far, only 1,700 have voted.

Ironically enough, or not, the one Democratic stronghold not yet reporting strong returns is Clarke County (where UGA is in Athens) at only 12%. It's smaller population though (86kish expected votes).

The math at current says at least 40k, at least. To be honest, I think that's conservative as well.

I'm gonna shoot my shot. Harris will win Georgia, and it will be announced on election night. Wasserman will have seen enough by about 10:30 eastern time. I'm waffling a bit on numbers and want more data, but it's happening.

The local news in Atlanta - NBC affiliate 11 Alive, just reported that sometime in mid afternoon over 1.95 million votes have now been cast. No raw data until tomorrow, but I expect we will have crossed 2 million votes.

You jest, but sadly this is extremely true. I read a stat a while ago about Native American missing women and presumed murdered and it was shocking.

It was a legit good question, and until today, I hadn't broken that out, but as I said, after examining the data, the small 5% that this proved out to be isn't enough for me to be concerned about a false positive, not once you weigh out the other factors.

I'm hyper focused on Georgia, so I will leave the other states to people that have been tracking that, but as to Georgia, it's looking really good. I'll make a prediction, amateur is it maybe, come November 2nd (early voting ends on November 1). Based on everything I am seeing right now, Dems are outpacing performance from 2020. I'd like to see us build an even larger bank, and hopefully over the next 10 days we will bank it.

Looks like going after the vodka is now squarely on the agenda

Georgia data dump update: 1. 1.69 Million votes cast - and yes, it's great to finally have a 69 to include in my update 2. Relative to 2020 - this is 6% lower participation at the same calendar date, somewhat misleading, due to Covid, returns were accepted a bit earlier in 2020. By the end of the day today, we will surpass that rate, and by the end of this week move early votes will be cast than all of 2020. 3. Of the 1.69 Million votes almost exactly 100k are mail in, significantly lower, again Covid. In person voting is definitely the flavor of the day. 4. 1.33 Million of the votes are from early voters of 2020, represent 79.1% 5. The female vote now outpaces the male vote by 183k or 55.2 to 44.4% 6. 2020 non voters represent 262k, with the youth vote (18-29) outpacing the elder vote (65+) by 20k. This group represents 15.6% of total votes cast and Dems are winning it. Per @Helobious who brought up a good point about turn out and Republican early voting this time around skewing the numbers higher, this does not at all appear to be the case. Between the 79.1% retention and the 15.6% of new, that would leave only a differential margin of 5.3%. Fortress Atlanta (all percentages relative to 2020 turnout) Clayton County - 39k or 18% Dekalb County - 120k votes cast or 20.5% Fulton County - 196k votes cast or 22% Random Rural Republican turn outs Pickens County - 6750 votes or 23.2% Rabun County - 4400 votes or 29.4% Habersham County - 7500 votes or 22.6% Plenty to be excited about, turnout yesterday was almost 300k, with 2.3 million being the tally from 2020 of early voting. At the current rate, we will meet that by end of day Wednesday or early Thursday.

I've earlier conceded that part of the turn is absolutely increased participation from Republican voters, that is undeniably true. The devil is in the details though, the female vote and the non 2020 voter youth bump is real. I'll have more updated info in the morning after the data dump for today. Something I haven't done the last week is do a break down on a few rural Republican counties to see if this completely tracks, which I will do in the morning.

Interesting thought, if the equipment is as old and antiquated as reported, the reality might be that the parts aren't standardized and would require machinists with the know how. While that sounds easy, it sure as hell isn't.

Things are looking very promising in Georgia. Just updated to about 1.65 Million votes.

Unofficial 2 p.m. Georgia update, more than 1.6 million have now voted, per the local news.

I understand where you are coming from, and you aren't wrong. I just wonder if there is a way to flood them with business to the point of the party's influence almost being ebbed away. I know that is counter intuitive. However, if money started flowing down hill because it was omnipresent, the thought that the government could tamp down that new found financial freedom and opportunity it presents seems unlikely to me. Admittedly, it's an odd thought, break communism with prosperity, but I'd still point out, nothing else is working.

The old, kill em with kindness mantra. We tried force, that went poorly, and now we've tried a 60 year cold shoulder, maybe it's time for a different approach, and yes I know Obama tried.

I don't think that's a bad idea at all. 60 years of this enough, we can be different and be friends. Additionally, where has all this gotten everyone?