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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. 1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

    I was watching some of Zeihan's videos and on one of them about the Ukrainian offensive he talks about the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge.  He outright speculates that we might have done it. 

    Did I miss something?  We wouldn't have seriously done that, right?

    That's insane, for a lot of reasons and just a couple are below:

    1.  If we had done it, the bridge wouldn't standing, and we wouldn't have hit in just one spot. 

    2.  If we were going to risk a first strike, it wouldn't be on a bridge when there are nuclear weapons in play (we'd shut the power off in Russia first with a cyber attack, followed by an attack on their communication satellites, shortly after we'd sink their Navy (all of it), then we'd hit as many missile installations we knew of with stealth cruise missiles, then we'd down their Air Force (all of it).   Then I guess we could hit the bridge I guess for shits and giggles.  

    Bottom line, it wasn't us.

    Now I have read where some have a theory where we gave the Ukrainians a single ATACMS for this specific task.  I don't buy that either.  If something went wrong, we'd have no plausible deniability as to why they Ukrainians had it.  If you notice, thru out this entire situation we've always announced what weapons we are supplying, and the reason is so that the Russians can't possibly mistake a new weapon in the theater as a first strike from us.  We've had very clear signaling on that.

    What I think the Ukrainians did was somehow trade warhead size for propellant for either a Neptune Missile or one of their in house ballistic missile systems (which they have, I just can't remember the designation right off the top of my head).  The reason I think it was a Neptune is because the strike angle on the video wouldn't visually appear to match a ballistic strike.  The reason I think it was a warhead trade off for propellant is because the explosion wasn't powerful enough to fully knock out the bridge.  How they managed to do this will likely be an incredible story in and of itself, but it's one that we won't know for some time.  

     

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  2. 4 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

    That was my first thought. But I think in order for us to do that, we would want more chaos/fear in the Kremlin.

    But I’m not sure that’s the case. We seem to be supporting this war in a way that sees the best possible path as Russia leaving Ukraine AND Putin staying in power.

    I'm sure our intel is well aware of who is competent and who isn't.  Getting this out in the open makes sense to me only if we are trying to get them to degrade their own capabilities internally (via a purge or whatever).  Considering the fragile state Putin is in, and the likelihood he starts having people whacked anyway, maybe he will take the bait, true or not.  

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  3. 4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Will we need to?  Me thinks Putin will take care of this  himself.

    I think we do need to do this, because it will send a much more clear message globally coming from the United States than whatever murky shit the Russians might do.  (Also, I doubt their ability to actually do a cruise missile strike like this).  Wagner is now a designated terrorist organization recognized as such by the United States and will be treated accordingly.  Destroying one base on a global stage should send a loud and clear message to any Wagnerite operating globally.  The United States will find you, and we will kill you, go home or to Belarus, but don't stay where you are thinking it's business as usual.  If you do, you will die.  

    That is a very clear and concise message to them, and in my opinion, one that needs to be sent.  

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  4. 8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Pressure. We could not hammer them earlier. Now we can. We are not happy with how despots in Africa are aligning with the fucktards. 

    This, I think it's a very public shot across the bow, and I suspect in the near future we will conduct cruise strikes against Wagner positions across the globe.  In the past, I think that even though we've already designated Wagner as a terrorist organization, we've given pause as to hitting them because their ties with Russia gave them some level of cover.  Now that they are disavowed by the Russian state, I think they are fair game.  As a matter of diplomacy we are going to give people a public heads up and after a few warnings things are going to go boom.  CAR makes a good candidate for this to happen, if for no other reason it's not in the Middle East.  If I am going to send a message, this lines up.  Additionally, unlike Ukraine or even Syria, there is no reason to believe their is any actual uniformed Russian personnel their; which equals legally strike on terrorists.  

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  5. 1 hour ago, bolverk said:

    Didn't know where else to put this

     

    I miss the days when a leader could shoot another man in the face, and in turn get the man that was shot to apologize to the shooter.  

     

    Those were simpler times.  The salad days if you will, when our leaders conducted blood for oil campaigns, and orchestrated the awarding of billions in contracts to benefit themselves.  

    By gosh, LIz is right, lets go back to that.  

    Or the Republican clown show is getting what it's long deserved and they can go fuck themselves.  Matter I fact, I hope they start shooting each other in the face again.  

    Oh and as an aside what a piece of work Rick Scott is, a guy who made all his money defrauding social services programs and should be in prison for it.  The gall of these people is unfuckingbelievable.  May he die in a house fire and have social services refuse to help him.  

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  6. 2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    No. Someone else like Newsome steps into the race becuase no one is going to piss of folks by going against an incument. 

    The only reason RFK doesn't mind going against the incumbent is because he's a Republican. 

    My vote would be Ted Lieu, but that's me, and there are several other good ones.  

  7. 7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Something that is bugging the shit out of me - why was Shoigu in civilian attire.

    I get the reason why Putin had today’s meeting advertised far and wide to the Russian people and the rest of the world, but in terms of showing confidence in Shoigu….

    Disagree Season 3 GIF by The Lonely Island

    His cosplay uniform was at the dry cleaners.  

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  8. 23 minutes ago, The Dog said:

    WIRE FRAUD

     

    You have to wonder if at this point he told Meadow's biographers on tape that he lost the election and then showed off how much he had raised by doing so.  When the Jan 6th indictment comes down this won't be a surprise to me.  It's completely on brand.  

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  9. 15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    So far, no casualties have been mentioned, but this is happening like in the same block as another fire from 2016.

    This is probably a top 3 horrible ways to die for me.

    2016 fire for comparison

     

    So Bob,

    You remember when we used that diesel bi-product as flame retardant?  As it turns out, maybe not our best thought.  

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  10. 22 minutes ago, dimyh said:

    Been percolating some thoughts about what all transpired. Some of this is quite obvious but there are a few key things that I haven't seen mentioned.

    It is quite clear that Priggy values the power and money that comes with leading Wagner. He has seen firsthand the shit show that's happening on the frontlines. He knows the incompetence of the RAF with their leadership. The order to sign contracts with the RAF is a direct threat to his lone cash cow(*). Absolutely no way he can lose all of that power without some type of compensation. The push to Moscow is the classic Russian business negotiation tactic -- make maximal demands with as much threats as possible. He's not looking to overthrow Putin but to find the best cash out option for his military IPO. Maybe he lucks out and Putin actually sacks Shoigu and Gerasimov, possibly promoting Priggy or someone at least not a total asshole to the Wagner concept. Or in this case what actually transpired was a soft landing in Belarus.

    Why Belarus? Well there are not many exile options for Putin. Everything is under sanctions or under siege. Plus Belarus does provide some flexibility on Putin's terms to shut down Wagner. The decree from RAF was that any mercenaries operating in Russia or Ukraine needed to sign contracts. With Priggy operating out of Belarus there is technically no violation of running a skeleton crew of Wagner operations. He can still direct affairs in Africa, possibly provide training for the next round of Russian mobniks, and continue to consolidate his most loyal staff while the majority of Wagner crew can be sold off to the RAF. The enforcement of Russian laws can be very arbitrary but sometimes they can be quite pedantic and by setting up shop in Belarus, Priggy and Putin can sidestep some of those accusations.

    And if Priggy is not allowed to operate Wagner at all, then he's cashed in whatever he could into a spot adjacent to the political power structure. He now has some political clout, demonstrated by the random Russian's cheering him once he left Rostov-on-the-Don. His rants and ravings appeal to that basic Russian strongman fantasy. If he can outlast Putin from getting poisoned/ejected then he might have some wiggle room into the new administration. Especially if he can continue to have some low-level mercenary forces working from him then he may very well be the scapel that the final coup wields when they make a move against Putin. Though I have to wonder how thrilled Lukashenko is with volunteering to be the Airbnb for this guy. Never trust a scorpion.

     

    * Does anyone know if Priggy still has the food contracts with the RAF? That is where he made his big cash, moving up from the restaurant biz and finding a way to siphon that govt cheddar.

    I can't imagine the Russian government would continue to pay him the food business, contract or not, while they have exiled him for mutiny; but then again, you know, it's Russia.  On a positive note, at the current rate, the need to feed Russian soldiers won't exist for much longer anyway.  

    I was doing some thinking earlier, on the high side Russia is losing 20k per month and it's at least 10k.  To put that in perspective, that's a Vietnam equivalent at least every 6 months, if not a quarter.  The other thing that comes to mind is every week they are losing the equivalent of 4 to 5 large high schools worth of young men a week.  Holy shit, that's a staggering loss on a weekly basis, with no end in sight.  

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  11. 10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

    Wasn’t this asshole a fucking hot dog vendor before he became a mercenary leader?  How does one decide on that career transition?

    Truck Masters, I think it was. 

    Little known fact, Douglas MacArthur started the Varsity here in Atlanta prior to WW2.  *See note 1

    I think his hot dog stand is both true and euphemistic.  He got out of prison and opened a hot dog stand, however, he was really a drug dealer, and he laundered the money thru the hot dog stand.  I have to imagine that money laundering in Russia isn't terribly difficult.  As he began to branch out in his criminal activities it allowed him to start rubbing elbows with other crooks, and then he came across Putin; time for next level shit.  Here we sit.  

     

     

    Note 1 - Not at all true.  

     

     

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  12. 5 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

    7qmgcn.jpg

    I go to LA Fitness with my wife, and I have even told her, and she agreed, that should she no longer be here or something unthinkable like that; that the Yoga class is easily the most fertile ground for a guy like me in his mid 40s.  Plenty of ladies in middle life who look like they probably aren't very satisfied with life and looking to have some fun.  Younger fellas, if you want a cougar experience, this is the place.  

    Stay away from that Zoomba class bullshit, those people look crazy.  

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  13. Grain of salt considering the source on the latter, but even if it's half that it would put them on pace for loses of 10k per month (20k for face value).  I've seen estimates of Russians in country at anywhere from 250k to 400k.  In either case, that's a huge number and each passing week and month the exponentially greater in terms of thinning their lines.  The Ukrainian plan to continually attrit them is working, even if slowly.  

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