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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. 1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Russia was losing on average 30 a year during Afghanistan in the 1980s.

    And keep in mind this is just 30 that they have photos/videos of.  Plenty that they don't.

     

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    Fun thing about these updates, we are going to get Naval loses shortly with the Dollar Tree D Day.  Here's to hoping for the most disastrous amphibious assault in history.  

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  2. 4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Unsung héros continue to emerge. Cool article about the person running Ukraine's rail system. Add to this the firefighters. 

     

    There is a last-minute change of plan. He won't be leaving from the main station after all. The bodyguards move fast and we follow, racing along the quiet streets behind the convoy, and into the suburbs.
    The Russians would like to kill him.
    Oleksandr Kamyshin is sure of this. So the 37-year-old chairman of Ukraine's railway network constantly changes his travel plans. Never stay in one place too long. Never have a routine that the Russians can discover.
    "We have to be faster than those people who try to track us," he tells me.
    The railway is the country's biggest employer with 231,000 staff across 233,000 square miles (603,470 sq km) of territory - Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe.
    So far Mr Kamyshin estimates his staff have helped to move 2.5 million people to safety. But the vast operation has come at a cost. Schedules have to be constantly updated because of Russian attacks. Since Vladimir Putin's invasion began, 33 railway staff have been killed.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60755198

    It certainly takes guts to operate a train in a war zone. 

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  3. 1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

    I Don't know about that. Missing that parade would be a massive deal. I think he has to attend. And maybe the reason all their tier 2 and tier 3 shit is in the ukraine is they are keeping the modern stuff for the parade. 

    Vlad has pretty much proven he doesn't have to do shit, especially in Russia, he does whatever the hell he wants.  

  4. 2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

    Why not the removal of Putin at this point? He’s proven he cannot be a participant on the world stage. No honor. No trust. Willing to potentially throw in chemical warfare and nuclear because of a galactically stupid invasion with hideous intel and even worse horrible strategy and weapons. We know where he is. Just get it done. Send in one of those people for that purpose. Adios mother fucker! 

    Holy hell, he's in a hardened facility in the Urals surrounded by 50 k of troops.  I'm not saying it's impossible but that would make a James Bond plot look logical and realistic to send in an assassin.  Let's just pretend you could skip to the door of the bunker, it's locked and designed to withstand a nuclear blast.  If Putin is taken out, it will be by someone inside of that, not anyone from outside.  

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  5. 1 hour ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

    To give RU hope via propaganda?

    China wants nothing more than to be one of two super powers and not the third wheel super power.

    Well, if you are China don't you probe every angle at this point, it helps to understand tipping points, right?  I can't blame them for this, it's exactly what I would do as well.  Do a non committal test of boundries? 

  6. 6 minutes ago, J.R. said:

    Agree that they are going to play the middle. Do not underestimate their desire for fellow travelers on the road away from democracy and western ideals. They certainly will not overtly fuck over Russia. It’ll be a 100+ year plan. 

    I'm not sure they have to be that patient in this situation.  Russia was a fading power well before this nonsense, they've only rapidly made this all but a certainty at this point; moving from being a fading power to potentially being completely irrelevant on an international stage (economically they are irrelevant, hence why the world can easily afford to outright shut them out like we have).  The only hold up is the nuclear arsenal, and China can certainly play out a scenario that brings them to the certain 2nd power status out of all of this (which by the way, they are undeniably this right now given their economic power).  China may play a bit of lip service to Russia, but only for ideological reasons.  They don't need some grand long plan.  They might tacitly show Russia some level of basic support, but they have no need nor any economic reason to truly lend support. 

    China has a good deal right now just by being frienemies with the West.  They can send some basics like food for troops and what not, watch the Russians implode, maintain trade status with the West, and in just a brief time swoop in get mineral rights in Siberia and cheap energy as this all shakes out.  

    As has been eloquently summarized here by others, the Russians have only the following to trade, in order to be brought back into the financial world:

    1.  Putin's head on pike

    2.  Nukes

    3.  Mineral Rights

    4.  Energy (that the west has already locked out and China is currently using)

    5.. Allowance of UN peacekeeping in country with free and fair elections.  

    My bet is that China makes a play on the mineral rights and energy and basically leaves the rest to the West.  Kind of a here, you deal with the political mess, we will take the resources.  

  7. Just now, immamac said:

    imagine not having enough military firepower to fight a month of 40% of your deployed force at war for less than 30 days. 

    Russia is beyond fucked, no one will care even if they withdraw now and they will be forced to denuclearize to join the international community again. 

    The great part about russia denuclearizing is I think it's actually a path forward for everyone to denuclearize - the main reason we kept them is because of them, not because of China -China doesn't want nukes, they just have to have them because we have them. I'm not sure if we want nukes or not, but if Russia didn't have them I think there could be some serious lobbying done to get rid of them forever.

     

    This is 100% right and the best news.  Eventually, Russia will want to get back into normal financial relations, and in order to do so, they are going to have to trade something.  The only thing they have to trade at this point are the nukes.

    Putin stole from his military, made it not really able to fight, seems to have forgotten that he did that, invades a country and is humiliated by farmers and western weapons, destroys his economy in a manner of weeks.  Leaving no economic path back without having to trade nukes.  

    The guy is a fucking genius.  

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  8. Just now, TaxMaster said:

    Maybe? Half of German energy comes from Russia and I don’t think their energy needs are seasonal enough for it to not deal a major blow regardless of the time of year.

    My point is, he's essentially given the largest amount of time possible for Germany to come up with another solution for next winter.  That's extraordinarily shitty timing on Russia's part.  Putin ain't exactly Carl Sagan.  

  9. Just now, dimyh said:

    Yeah I was wondering about the timing of it all once it became a full fledged invasion. Seems like waiting 4-5 months would have been more ideal. For a guy that is so passionate about history, Putin sure is a dumbass about some major Russian events.

    I mean its weird he wouldn't of thought of cutting off energy to hedge against sanctions, right?  The best time to do that would be to leverage just before coming into winter.  

  10. 1 minute ago, TaxMaster said:

    Anyone know what Germany/the EU’s gas reserve situation is like? I gotta think Russia completely turning off the taps to Europe without warning would have a very slightly better risk/reward than using nuclear or bio weapons. Im not an O&G guy, but if Russia suddenly stopped western energy exports until, say, financial sanctions were lifted…is there global production capacity to even meet Germany’s industrial needs? 

    Well, if that is their plan they picked a shitty time to do this, it's almost spring time.  That wouldn't really hurt until winter next year, in my eyes.  Giving Europe ample time to find alternatives.  Come to think of it, seems Putin picked on of the worst times to do this anyway, given the ground conditions in Ukraine now (wouldn't have much mattered the Olympics and all, it was still strategically a shitty time frame.  Why he didn't do this late summer is baffling to me.

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  11. 9 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

    Let's not forget all their giant RE companies coughing up blood many months back (Evergrande and others)

    Oh they are all upside down, its a matter of how much.  They are doing their own quantitative easing, albeit behind the scenes.  As you say China's economy sucks, our will eventually get hit with it, just a question of how bad.  Hopefully just a small bump in the road.  Turning a blind eye to their shenanigans on money may well be in our best economic interests at the moment.

  12. Just now, utee94 said:

    Something is very wrong over there, without a doubt.  Typically when demand on products like the ones my team manages increase dramatically, they're able to stand up new manufacturing lines in a matter of weeks, and entirely new manufacturing facilities in under 6 months.  It's been over 18 months now and they haven't recovered.  This is not normal for them.

     

     

    Everything I've read indicates they had a bigger real estate bust than we did 15 years ago.  Only difference, is that they (their government) has intervened to prevent a giant free fall.  Given that they can essentially privately cook the books, at least for a while they can conceal some of the economic hardship.  But eventually, when you rob peter to pay paul, there is only so long you can go before the house of cards falls.  

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