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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. I haven't worked in apartment construction or renovation for a while now, but I can tell you right now there is going to be a massive problem of building collapses in this country.  All of the older buildings, pre 2000s didn't have open concepts, and what wound up happening is that every money manager pushed for older style apartments to be renovated to meet this conceptual standard and maximize market value accordingly.  The problem is, they all pushed for it to be done on the cheap, non engineered, non permitted, etc.  It doesn't take much of load bearing walls being compromised for you to have a big problem, worse, it might not be immediately noticeable, and the problem can seemingly sit dormant for years; but it's not dormant, its a time bomb.  

    I'm not saying that is what has happened here, but this is a big problem.  

     

    And I suppose its ok to blame Ken Paxton.  

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  2. 2 minutes ago, Nivek said:

    Missiles so fast they are caught on a dash cam.  Missiles so powerful they can shut down 2 lanes of traffic in one direction for about 2 minutes.  

    If you have to yell at the top of your lungs that you have the best words, maybe you don't?  If you run around telling people how unstoppable your missiles are......

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  3. 2 minutes ago, statsman said:

    Drones hitting civilian housing in Moscow is not good. What’s going on? It could be:

    1. Ukrainian tit for tat. 
    2. Ukrainian drones meant for military targets going off course

    3. Partisans of Ukraine going rogue

    4. Russian false flag

    Given the distance to Moscow,from Ukraine, and the (crude) drone tech, my guess is #3 or #4. If it’s #3, they need to get those guys under control. 

    It's certainly not a good look if the Ukrainians suddenly started hitting civilian targets.  I'd understand the impulse, but given that they are dependent on western opinion and aid for this, I don't think they'd do it, at least on purpose.  Putin, on the other hand, has a history attacking his own people to serve his own needs and foster public sentiment.  My guess would be 4, for the purposes of full mobilization would be the most likely scenario.  It's interesting he withdrew from an arm's treaty yesterday, and today this happens.  

  4. 3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Or worse

    national-vacation-dog-scene-o.gif?resize

    I think I'd rather be in the family truckster than a T55.  You think you hate it now, but wait til you drive it.  

    Also, sorry for previously engaging with a certain someone, until just recently I didn't understand just how much of a waste of time that is.  

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  5. 46 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

    At what?

    Quoting Ukrainian accounts that directly contradict regarded DT thread narratives? 

    So you really think they are attacking hospitals and apartment buildings because they are doing well?  It might be because they are the biggest buildings in town when they hit them.  I'm sure occasionally they hit something of value militarily but it sure isn't often.  The electrical grid I understand, it made some sense, and bear in mind they likely had maps and drawings of most of its locations from the Soviet days (not real intel, just old info).  I guess they haven't hit supply trains coming into Ukraine because they are just performing good will gestures.  I suppose they like the challenge of Himars, or are looking forward to facing at least 9 brigades of western combined arms.  I guess that is possible, they have consistently shown themselves to be grossly incompetent, but maybe it's not that, maybe they just want a bigger challenge.  

    I think they are going to get to see.  While all that might be true, I'm guessing its far more likely that they don't have a fucking clue where the Ukrainians really are beyond the front lines and city based intel.  

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  6. 25 minutes ago, Bevo said:

    What happens if Lukashenko dies?

    If Lukashenko is already dead then in theory fresh elections should be held and a new president elected; however, that is unlikely to happen.

    Belarus was thrown into uproar after Lukashenko massively falsified the results of the August 2020 elections, returning himself to office with a massive landslide. The few independent results from the voting reported by rebel polling stations# suggest that the wife of an opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, actually won by a landslide. The country erupted into mass demonstrations within hours of the official result being announced and the head of the Central Election Committee fled the country in fear of her life. Tikhanovskaya fled into exile a few days later after being threatened with arrest by Belarus’ KGB. Her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, has been in jail ever since.

    The authorities will be unwilling to risk a repeat performance. Fresh elections would almost certainly ignite fresh protests, which were only quelled before by Belarus’ freezing winter in 2021 and brutal police repression once the crowds on the street every weekend became small enough to manage.

    Lukashenko has already prepared the ground for one of his sons to take over by increasing the authority of the Security Council which his son chairs. Similar to the informal mechanisms used to choose successors in Central Asia, Lukashenko has merely institutionalised a similar confab of the elite and given it a legal base.

    It remains to be seen if the Security Council will be allowed to take power or choose a successor, as Russian social media is already speculating that the Union State deal signed with Russia in 1999 could be rushed to completion and Belarus subsumed into Russia in some form. At the least the Kremlin will interfere and push its own preferred presidential candidate on Minsk to maintain the tight bonds between the two countries and increase its control at the same time.

    Oh, I'm well aware of the history, and why this can't happen and won't happen.  But that doesn't mean that Putin is.  What we know is that this is a guy who is sitting in an information bubble of his own choosing.  He doesn't read outside sources; he doesn't have but a small group that advises him, and by all accounts that group has only gotten smaller.  He seems to collect people around him that only share his worldview (or reinforce it for their own personal gain).  In short, his downfall will be his own hubris (call it vanity, ego, whatever you want), his self belief, deluded as it is, and this could be yet another example of this.

    Long story short, if this is what he is up to, it's going to backfire spectacularly.  While I think that's apparent to everyone who is basically paying attention; for Putin it may well be another big blind spot.  

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  7. 1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

    If true and Belarus ends up in some turmoil, I don't think there is much Russia can do, if they can't even protect their own borders.  If they shift forces over to try and keep a lid on Belarus, that helps Ukraine out, and opens the door for more Russians invading Russia actions.

    This may just be legit poor health, so grain of salt with all this:

    If Putin is behind this it would make some sense because at this point we all know how prone he is to magical thinking.  His thought might well be that with Lukashenko out of the way, he can just take Belarus thru his will (remember I did say magical thinking) and simply absorb them into his new empire.  He likely has people around him that would say this would work (I'm sure he can trot out a bullshit map or two in this scenario as well).  With that in mind, his thought would be that he could immediately mobilize the  Belarusian Army and open a new front in northern Ukraine.  One that would prevent the Ukrainians from launching their offensive elsewhere.  

    Of course the reality is very different.  If Putin were to attempt to seize Belarus in the wake of a Lukashenko death, I think there is a far better possibility of a full scale revolt in Minsk.  I also don't think the Belarusian military would take orders from him.  Given that Russia's military is bogged down in Ukraine, it's not as if Putin has the ability to take Belarus by force.  Instead, if this is really what is going on, I'm sure he's getting told that Russian-Belarusian unification will be greeted with flowers, and that troops won't be necessary as the Belarusian military will immediate accept transfer for command.  In the end, in this scenario, he could well lose what has until now been a friendly staging area for the war in Ukraine.  To boot, if he already has been staging tactical nukes in Belarus, there is a chance these get taken in the midst of revolt.  

    All this having been said, we know Putin is a master strategist, and this sort of catastrophic thinking/planning is now part of his M.O.  If there is a shitty choice to make, he will do it.  So I can't dismiss this as a possibility.  

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