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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. 14 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

    Is there a rule (Geneva Convention)  against filming/photographing detainees? I wanted to know before posting something. Just a lot of Russian detainees walking in a line with hands up. But didn’t want to post the Tweet if that’s not allowed.

    Last I checked, you don't represent a nation state.  

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  2. 2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    IMO - the expense is superfluous considering how reliably they knock out a tank in one shot. That's a pretty incredible force augmentation for Joe boot

    Have to agree with this, when you are at war, the cost doesn't matter if you lose.  You only worry about money after the fact, which means you won.  

  3. 18 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

    That is a great interpretation of how the nukes work and are maintained.  Through testing they come up with a "will work 100 percent of the time" bases on calculations and testing.  Will it work after that?  Yeah but it's an unexplored realm that hasn't been scientifically proven.  Now that we have high powered computers.  They get better with how long.  We have to remember nuclear weapons were developed with very basic computers.  So yeah I would agree with you.  Those nukes are going to work.  Unless 60 years of sitting there had wires get wet or ants for in there and chewed up the wires.  Or the wire gets so brittle.  But the actual core.  Yeah it will make something go boom.

    Like if a crane said rated for 10 tons.  Does it mean it can only lift 10 tons?  No we only tested to 10 tons.

     

    As far as their conventional stuff.  It is the question.  What the fuck are you waiting for.  It is sort of like the question you asked earlier.  Well if this thing is going to go to waste if I don't use it.  Why not use it. 

     

    I suppose the waiting game is the most difficult part of all this.  I've been shocked that the Russian force from the north has either been content to sit in the same spot for nearly a week, allowing the Ukrainians to sit and build defense around Kyiv.  I suspect they are out of gas, and I also suspect they haven't the desire to enter into what they know is their own slaughter.  

  4. Just now, atomheartbevo said:

    When you see those anti-air and command vehicles being captured or destroyed, while people put dollar amounts on them I don’t even know how you actually calculate the cost in terms of tactical or strategic terms. 

    Sunk cost, but it's even worse than that.  The people that designed and manufactured all that equipment did so 20+ years ago.  Same with much of the rest of the "advanced" weaponry Russia will soon need to resupply.  Let's forget that raw materials and the like were and issue.  In order to build this sort of stuff you need people that have done it before, experience matters.  Now superimpose that on something like a 20 year high school reunion.  Basically, if you are lucky you might be able to 10% of the original team to reunite.  All that experience is long gone, and basically you are starting from scratch, but you work in building missiles, wanna do it with 90% greenhorns?

  5. 23 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:


    It’s piss.

    It isn't just that their manufacturing capability is shit, which is true; it's that even if they had the ability to manufacture anything, they can't because they are economically crippled.  Essentially, let's say they had exhausted their cruise missile capability.  They may have the ability to make more, but they were dependent on external materials do so, of which they now no longer have access to.  In short, they have no real ability to replenish any advanced offensive weapons.  Even if they manage to smuggle shit in, it would take months if not years to begin to replenish these sort of stores.  

    Again, I don't think they are anywhere near exhausting conventional munitions, but advanced weaponry, I don't think they have either the ability or means to do this.  

  6. 8 minutes ago, pops said:

    Given that we completely estimated everything about the Russian army... has there been any discussion on the best guess of their remaining level of armaments?   Have they used 1/10th of what they have?  1/1000th?  

    I would guess their manufacturing ability is shit,  but any clue what kind of arsenal they have in reserve?   

    Just one man's opinion, but I would find it difficult to believe that despite all the corruption and theft that has taken place within the Russian military, that a 15 day conflict would come anywhere near depleting Russian conventional munitions stores.  What did get me interested was considering the nuclear stores the Russians have.

    My understanding (via reading the Atomic Commission) is that the expected shelf life of weapons grade nuclear material is approximately 45 years.  Meaning anything constructed from 1976ish to present should be considered viable.  That having been said, apparently in experimental studies, the lifespan may well be 85 years, depending upon storage and maintenance.  All that having been said, during the SALT II agreements, it's likely that anything creating up until that time (roughly 1986ish) has by now likely long since been retired (Ironically, much of this may well be the fuel at the nuclear power stations in Ukraine).  Basically, we should have every reason to suspect that the vast majority of the Russian nuclear arsenal is in fact live and active.  The question mark would be whether or not the maintenance on the actual delivery systems themselves has been done.  I'd be betting on not so much, but that's just my gut but its based on the operational elements of the rest of their military, which frankly appear to be in shambles. 

    Of that 6000, lets say only 10% is actually operational.  The problem would still be that potentially Putin has 600 working nuclear weapons; that's certainly enough to give me pause, and I'm guessing its the same for the people that actually make decisions on these matters.   

     

    At any rate, I don't think munitions are the Russian problem.  The truth is the lack of maintenance on their fleet is doing them in, both Air and Ground.  

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  7. Just now, FartingMonk said:

    It takes weeks and weeks to set something up like that.  If you're gonna do that then I would go with the Home Alone route and just set traps everywhere

    I completely get what you are saying, but at this point they've had nearly two weeks of on going siege and war.  In a scenario like that, don't you use all the resources available to you?  This is fairly common stuff, and in this instance you aren't looking for pinpoint demolition, more of a kinetic energy demolition (i.e. you don't need a study or heavy engineering, just using it at the appropriate time can make a difference).  This stuff is pretty common because its so stable.  If you have it, don't you use it?

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  8. So I got to thinking again, I wonder how much construction demolition explosives they'd have in a place like Kyiv?  It makes me wonder if you know you may face a siege with an eventual invasion into the city, would you take these type of explosives and set fallback points with it?  Perhaps even knock a few buildings down either on top of them or at a minimum in their way.  It may not come to that, but if they did have any semtex or a more modern equivalent, wouldn't you do that?  I know I would.  

  9. 7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

    awwww shit. I know this looks great, but allows Russian artillery to move forward and set up. Move civilians out so ya don't have to feed them once you take the city. 

    Odds on it remaining in place? Is Russia that overextended? I don't think they give zeros fucks about the civilians. 

     

    Perhaps its also an option for Ukraine to redeploy weapons to counter the artillery with weapons?  Let us hope so.  I agree, at the point Russian forces aren't to be trusted, but perhaps they will lull as well.

  10. 4 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

    VX is chemical.  Google 'Covid' for how bioweapons can work.

    The bioweapons false flag threat is the one that has most concerned me the last several days.

    The nuclear FF threat may (or may not) be a bluff to discourage the aircraft transfer and other issues.

    I realized VX was chemical almost immediately after posting, but that's ok.  Bio is what I have the least understanding of, Covid is one thing, and while it's been awful, I know that there is worse shit out there.  My question is, if they do a bio weapon release, is it likely to be more or less contained?

  11. 1 minute ago, Captain Obvious said:

    As opposed to just siphoning off funds for all manner of military equipment, not telling most of them till the last minute where they're going, and leaving them with little to no real plan?  He's killed many of his own soldiers already.

    Very fair point, it just seems more appalling that he is going to vaporize some of them now.  You are right though, how big of a leap really is it?

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  12. 1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

    It’s worse than this. Rosneft didn’t make its $2b bond payment and Gazprom won’t make their $1.3B bond payment tomorrow. This had very wide res hung consequence and will lead to hundreds of other borrowers missing upcoming bind payments. This alone will set back Russia’s economy 10 years by freezing them out of the global market.

    What's a bit concerning about all this, is that at some point this will all be over, Putin will be gone (hopefully sooner than latter), and then we are going to almost have to Marshall Plan almost all of Eastern Europe to get this situation to stabilize.  Hopefully we can set the stage for long term partnership and democracy out of all this, combined with nuclear disarming in the region.   Maybe that will all be worth it, but its going to be a gigantic restoration effort, like I said the comparable to the Marshall Plan, so all the economic ruin we instituting now we will be left to also undo.  

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