BamaATL

Factually some of what he says is true, but that's also where knowing the statistical side of things doesn't tell the entire story, i.e. context. 1. Fulton County really has two sides to it, the part north of the Chattahoochee River, where the vast majority of the population is white, and the part south; which is anything but. (North Fulton County has tried on multiple occasions to form a new county called Milton County, but state law prohibits more than our current 159, so it's been thwarted even when they attempted to buy two poor south Georgia counties into a merger). Also, not quite sure where he his getting his numbers, the current white vote, updated as of today was 199k white, 155k black , 13k Hispanic, 20k Asian, 55k other. Additionally, the thought that this is some Republican push doesn't jive with the numbers. of the 442k that have voted, only 22k 4.9% were day of voters in 2020. Of the remainder, 71.6% or 317k were ev's from 2020, and 104k or 23.5% are 2020 non voters (the reality is that 2020 non voters aren't likely to buck the county averages by any statistically meaningful amount, rather they are far more likely to follow a similar voting pattern). It's also not uncommon for the population in south Fulton County to be more heavily involved in day of voting. Long story short, save a blizzard coming thru Atlanta on Tuesday, I wouldn't expect much a shift here. 2. Dekalb County - A similar voting pattern exists, and while the complexity of Dekalb County is different, I also wouldn't look at this as being any different that Fulton. The mere notion that suddenly there was an influx of Trump voters in Dekalb a routine 80%+ Democratic county is so absurd I can't do anything but laugh at it. 3. Cobb County would be the only of the three where there might be some level of concern. It is the closest of the three to be purple, and the most recent to shift. However, it's been heading in that direction for 20ish years and turned 4 years ago. It also has really 3 parts of it. East Cobb, which abuts North Fulton, a balanced area that slightly favors Republicans, Marietta in the middle (Truist Park-Braves stadium) the most densely populated area, and very Democratic, and West Cobb, again a balanced area which slightly favors Republicans. Turnout will still be important, as it always is, but when basically same 80% has already turned out that did the last time, which is true of all three places, I'd say it's likely the outcome will be about the same, just add in the new voters at a similar percentage. None of these three areas will have a significant shift beyond a couple of points either way in percentage R to D. Cobb would be the only one that I would give any chance at moving more that a couple of points, and I'd be surprised if it's more that 3 points in either direction. Cobb would be the only county where a demographic shift would impact much, and if it proves out, it would be because of an influx of likely Democratic voters, not the other way around. Also, I'd say it's worthy of mention that one of the pitfalls of presuming that racial makeup determines voting decisions in polling is that at least some of the time that's dead wrong. For example, while white people in North Fulton are apt to be of a Republican persuasion, white people in South Fulton are apt to be Democratic. Certainly that isn't universal, but that's an important distinction. I think it matters far more where the people are, not just the stats, and to a degree, you have to at least understand the area and the local politics. I'd also point out that the same can be said in some south Georgia counties, where while you a county with a high black population; thinking that it makes it automatically Democratic is wrong. We have a few counties that have a high black population (relative to total percentage, but small overall) but a consistently red (has to do with farming and a whole lot of other history, which is very interesting, but I digress). Bottom line, I don't see a shift here at all. This is Republican dreamcasting. I put the link for data on Georgia for any interested below. https://www.georgiavotes.com/

@Gatorubet offered earlier to help women in this sort of situation.

well if that has you concerned, I know this will for @Js1 sushi is back on the election trade thread prognosticating about statistics.

Finally, Operation Werewolf!

Looks amazingly beautiful, however, I'm now told it will be Nice area, because now my Step Mother and Dad are involved. This is hilarious, because my Father once fondly described Nice as Gadsden with a lake (emphasis on fondly). The man should write for Frommers. He also fondly described Venice as Gatlinburg on water, without the carmel apples, which is even funnier when you consider that he honeymooned with my Mother in Gatlinburg and had an amazingly horrid divorce with her. Nonetheless, he still speaks of Gatlinburg with some sort of amazing reverence. We live in a completely surreal world, and this election is just part of it.

Some social influencer couple in I think New York had a pet squirrel, which is illegal, because you know rabbies and shit. The Health Department found out from the videos online, got it and euthanized it. Somehow, because of fucking course, this became political.

Well, if I had half of one Presidente, they wouldn't need to anesthetize me either, win win!

Well, I forgot to mention (because the whole idea is ridiculous to begin with), she want's to be in wine country with a vineyard. Neither of us drink.

My wife is now convinced we can buy a chateau and run a b&b. We have no experience in hospitality at all.

Fuckers are against the sweet taste of freedom from tyranny.

So I undersampled the half of the gender population that votes more often, and then the largest and most important city, but beyond that, I'm on it.

France here, may happen anyway, my wife has gone down the rabbit hole of moving there out of necessity to now out of want. Neither of us speak French, what could go wrong?

Better get used to roller food my man.

Ah-hoo, werewolfs of Macon, Ah-hoo.....

Homewood, no question. It is the birthplace of yours truly, and much like the North Korean leaders, the place of my birth is a sacred one. I have graced it with a Chili's as told in the prophecy, just for you RD.

Sadly, I can't join in the Wednesday Chili's celebration. I have a colonoscopy Thursday, and I don't think that would be appreciated. However, less than one mile from where I am having the procedure there is, you guessed it, a Chili's. I have already had my wife to commit to this for lunch Thursday. She is baffled as to why I would request this.

A - he won't be alive B - It's one thing to lose closely and make the argument you can win again, lose in a blow out and run again is sort of like putting up Walter Mondale another time. The big money is not doing it, and they will demand big changes. C - he's had coattails the past four years, which has helped protect him because of the potential, after a blowout, everyone with power is going to walk away from that, because they will be concerned for themselves first, not him.

Does this mean we are going to get pictures of Tricia Helfer and Katee Sackoff in the thread now?

Every time they shoot someone during a no knock their go to is wrong address, so they sure use that when it's beneficial to them.

I was talking about Sezler being potential light on her Democratic support, i.e, not Harris+3 but Harris +6. But valid point nonetheless.

It'll be a new world after this, because if you treat women poorly politically you do so at your own peril. Once any political group realizes that they have power, they don't give it up, and the biggest take away from all this is going to be the realized power of women in politics; not just as a leader or leaders, but as a political group. Moving forward, when candidates are selected, legislation, etc, the very first question Democrats need to ask is, "are women going to be happy with this?" I will tell you who is unequivocally going to struggle with this, Republicans.

A last bit of food for thought, what if Selzer is wrong? But not in the way we all knee-jerked to, i.e. within her margin or error of 3; instead of 47 in Iowa it'd be 50. Now that friends, would be a lot of fun.

Given today's info, just wanted to put out a few districts to perhaps keep an eye on in Georgia. I think we will know these outcomes pretty quickly Tuesday. All incumbents listed. 1. GA 6th (Northeast Metro Atlanta) - Rich McCormack was drawn to be R+11 2. GA 11th (Northwest Metro Atlanta) - Treason Tour Guide Barry Loudermilk R+11 3. GA 12th (Augusta) - Rick Allen R+8 With congressional districts picking up a few points isn't unreasonable in general, if it's breaking much better than anyone thinks these are still long shots. However, it is worth an early eye Tuesday evening.

A little bit of a Georgia update, Republicans have now filed by my count their 4th lawsuit in the last week to try to basically stop voting in Fulton County pretty much all together. These are entirely baseless and continue to be thrown out. They are only doing this to my knowledge there, and my best guess is that they are so far behind that the only chance they feel they remotely have is for Fulton County to be stopped all together. Funny thing is, if my math is remotely correct, I don't think even that would be enough.

He's about to find out he has no coattails