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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. 1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

    @BamaATL what say you?

    Factually some of what he says is true, but that's also where knowing the statistical side of things doesn't tell the entire story, i.e. context.  

    1.  Fulton County really has two sides to it, the part north of the Chattahoochee River, where the vast majority of the population is white, and the part south; which is anything but.  (North Fulton County has tried on multiple occasions to form a new county called Milton County, but state law prohibits more than our current 159, so it's been thwarted even when they attempted to buy two poor south Georgia counties into a merger).  Also, not quite sure where he his getting his numbers, the current white vote, updated as of today was 199k white, 155k black , 13k Hispanic, 20k Asian, 55k other.  Additionally, the thought that this is some Republican push doesn't jive with the numbers.  of the 442k that have voted, only 22k 4.9% were day of voters in 2020.  Of the remainder, 71.6% or 317k were ev's from 2020, and 104k or 23.5% are 2020 non voters (the reality is that 2020 non voters aren't likely to buck the county averages by any statistically meaningful amount, rather they are far more likely to follow a similar voting pattern).  It's also not uncommon for the population in south Fulton County to be more heavily involved in day of voting.  Long story short, save a blizzard coming thru Atlanta on Tuesday, I wouldn't expect much a shift here.

    2.  Dekalb County - A similar voting pattern exists, and while the complexity of Dekalb County is different, I also wouldn't look at this as being any different that Fulton. The mere notion that suddenly there was an influx of Trump voters in Dekalb a routine 80%+ Democratic county is so absurd I can't do anything but laugh at it.  

    3.  Cobb County would be the only of the three where there might be some level of concern.  It is the closest of the three to be purple, and the most recent to shift.  However, it's been heading in that direction for 20ish years and turned 4 years ago.  It also has really 3 parts of it.  East Cobb, which abuts North Fulton, a balanced area that slightly favors Republicans, Marietta in the middle (Truist Park-Braves stadium) the most densely populated area, and very Democratic, and West Cobb, again a balanced area which slightly favors Republicans.  

    Turnout will still be important, as it always is, but when basically same 80% has already turned out that did the last time, which is true of all three places, I'd say it's likely the outcome will be about the same, just add in the new voters at a similar percentage.  None of these three areas will have a significant shift beyond a couple of points either way in percentage R to D.  Cobb would be the only one that I would give any chance at moving more that a couple of points, and I'd be surprised if it's more that 3 points in either direction.  Cobb would be the only county where a demographic shift would impact much, and if it proves out, it would be because of an influx of likely Democratic voters, not the other way around.  

    Also, I'd say it's worthy of mention that one of the pitfalls of presuming that racial makeup determines voting decisions in polling is that at least some of the time that's dead wrong.  For example, while white people in North Fulton are apt to be of a Republican persuasion, white people in South Fulton are apt to be Democratic.  Certainly that isn't universal, but that's an important distinction.  I think it matters far more where the people are, not just the stats, and to a degree, you have to at least understand the area and the local politics.  I'd also point out that the same can be said in some south Georgia counties, where while you a county with a high black population; thinking that it makes it automatically Democratic is wrong.  We have a few counties that have a high black population (relative to total percentage, but small overall) but a consistently red (has to do with farming and a whole lot of other history, which is very interesting, but I digress).  

    Bottom line, I don't see a shift here at all.  This is Republican dreamcasting.  

    I put the link for data on Georgia for any interested below.  

    https://www.georgiavotes.com/

     

    • Hook 'Em 6
  2. 11 minutes ago, Woland said:

    Choulex, Switzerland. 15 minutes from downtown Geneva. French Alps in the background.

     

    geneva.choulexgrapes.jpg

    Looks amazingly beautiful, however, I'm now told it will be Nice area, because now my Step Mother and Dad are involved.  This is hilarious, because my Father once fondly described Nice as Gadsden with a lake (emphasis on fondly).  The man should write for Frommers. He also fondly described Venice as Gatlinburg on water, without the carmel apples,  which is even funnier when you consider that he honeymooned with my Mother in Gatlinburg and had an amazingly horrid divorce with her.  Nonetheless, he still speaks of Gatlinburg with some sort of amazing reverence.  

    We live in a completely surreal world, and this election is just part of it.  

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  3. 3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

    Seriously, on the France stuff, if you want to learn French just move to a medium-sized city and go out and drink a lot. It's possible to learn it in Paris but it's harder because there are so many people from all over in Paris, you could spend a year there speaking English or Spanish or whatever.

    Medium-sized French city will still have more culture and history than most of America, and housing costs are about half of Germany or the UK. Trains/buses are the best imho.

    To jump start you, here are 4 useful phrases:

    Ce n'est pas de ma faute      it's not my fault

    Je l'ai trouvé comme ça      I found it like that

    Je n'ai rien touché      I didn't touch anything

    C'était déjà cassé      It was already broken

    Well, I forgot to mention (because the whole idea is ridiculous to begin with), she want's to be in wine country with a vineyard.

    Neither of us drink.  

    • Haha 3
  4. 5 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

    I have 3 Birmingham-area Chili's to choose from. All are in paved-over hellscapes. Help me choose.

    From closest to farthest:

    1. Homewood, "Wildwood Centre", which is no longer wild, wooded, and never was a "centre". I was last inside this one maybe 15 years ago and ordered at the bar where they didn't try to give me that sticky flashing touch-screen. Homewood is mildly blue but who knows what will drag into a Wildwood Centre Chili's.

    2. Fultondale, Northside of Birmingham in the Forever 1978 suburbs. The Chili's is perched out over I-65 and will no doubt be full of people from Florida or northern states fleeing homicidal post-election mobs. Years ago at a nearby shopping center my suspiciously ethnic wife felt that she was receiving glares from the Pinkfolk. West Virginia starts about ten miles north of this one.

    3. Trussville, Northeast of town, at the bottom end of a massive parking lot of a mall and across the street from a graveyard. An odd burb that went from "country village" to "let's park our money here" inside of 20 years. I went to an art show there a couple years ago and it's a place where you can tell they want art, but at the same time they're kinda pissed off about it. Many of the men look like Barney Rubble.

    Homewood, no question.  It is the birthplace of yours truly, and much like the North Korean leaders, the place of my birth is a sacred one.  I have graced it with a Chili's as told in the prophecy, just for you RD.  

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  5. 3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    I have been operating under the assumption we have to beat back Trump one more time.

    But seeing the extent his fanatical fanbase is, particularly the Evangelical Christians, I am not entirely sure we won't see him again in 2028 at age 80 or whatever. He is God's anointed to these people.

    Which baffles me. There are many things I have thought about Donald Trump over the course of his time as a celebrity but 'beloved and revered by Christians' was not one I ever thought I would see.

    He isn't even born again or anything. This isn't even George W Bush saying "it was ok that I did cocaine, I have found God and been forgiven but your ass is going to prison." No, he is still the same sleazebag.

     

    A - he won't be alive

    B - It's one thing to lose closely and make the argument you can win again, lose in a blow out and run again is sort of like putting up Walter Mondale another time.  The big money is not doing it, and they will demand big changes.

    C - he's had coattails the past four years, which has helped protect him because of the potential, after a blowout, everyone with power is going to walk away from that, because they will be concerned for themselves first, not him.  

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  6. 6 minutes ago, quigley said:

    whats-the-big-deal-with-the-selzer-poll-

     

    Don't care. If Selzer's off by 5 and Trump wins IA by 2, Harris will win WI, PA, and maybe OH (!?!?)

    More importantly, Dems win Senate races in WI, PA, MI, OH. Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA.

    GOP needs to win Senate races in NE, MT, TX, and FL. Those aren't all independent of each other so I'd put the likelihood of Senate staying 50-50 as better than even.

    I was talking about Sezler being potential light on her Democratic support, i.e, not Harris+3 but Harris +6.  But valid point nonetheless.  

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  7. Given today's info, just wanted to put out a few districts to perhaps keep an eye on in Georgia.  I think we will know these outcomes pretty quickly Tuesday.  All incumbents listed.

    1.  GA 6th (Northeast Metro Atlanta) - Rich McCormack was drawn to be R+11

    2.  GA 11th (Northwest Metro Atlanta) - Treason Tour Guide Barry Loudermilk R+11

    3.  GA 12th (Augusta) - Rick Allen R+8

    With congressional districts picking up a few points isn't unreasonable in general, if it's breaking much better than anyone thinks these are still long shots.  However, it is worth an early eye Tuesday evening.  

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