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BamaATL

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  1. General Population Growth in Georgia over the past 4 years has been 12%, given the 50% expected turnout, I'm revising the starting point of both parties +6% Repubs - 2,557,374 Dems - 2,569,609 For non voters I am going to add 10% for day of voting so total - 918,500, above charted Dem advantage +140,617, total remainder 528k Scenario Models: Scenario A - Zero attrition (no party drift, Trumps absolute best case). In this scenario, of the 2020 non voters from the remainder of the state Trump wins them at a rate of 60/40 a Republican net pick up of 211,200. Trump 2,768,574 votes, Harris 2,921,466. Scenario B - 3% attrition (Trump, thru combination of abstention of voter cross over, loses 3%). In this scenario, 2020 non voter is split 50/50 outside of the earlier rundown. His starting point is revised to 2,480,653 and picks up 264,000 in non voter for a total of 2,744,654, Harris 2,974,226. Scenario C (the you must shit rainbows scenario) 5% attrition, Harris picks up 70% of 2020 non voters. Trump picks up 2,587,905 votes. Harris 3,079,826. I'll run with Scenario B as my prediction. 5.71 million total votes Harris with 51ish % and a win by nearly 250k. In short, this isn't close from where I sit.
  2. Georgia's EV raw data is in, and it's time for a final prediction. The total EV, both mail and in person combined was 4.003 million, a tremendous turnout (2020's total was right at 5 million). The biggest jump of the page number is the total of 2020 nonvoters, which is 835k. To me, who these folks are voting for will tell the tale. To be clear, I'm completely ignoring the 3rd party candidates in all this, as they represent such a insignificant portion of the vote. Starting Point - I'm taking what I call a standard 2% attrition from each party. This reduction is due to things like death, moving away etc. Republican starting point - 2,412,617 Democratic starting point - 2,424,160 2020 Non Voter based on Democratic stronghold and 2020 percentage percentage, total county, anticipated split Bibb County (Macon) - 8230 total 5048 D/3181 R Net pick up +1866 Chatham County (Savannah) - 25263 total 14903 D/10358 net pick up +4545 Clarke County (Athens/UGA) - 9943 total 6960 D/2983 R net pick up +3977 Clayton County (Metro Atlanta) - 18361 total 15607 D/2754 R net pick up +12,853 Cobb County (Metro Atlanta) - 60,497 total 33878 D/26,618 net pick up +7259 Dekalb County (Metro Atlanta) - 57,839 total 48,0006 D/9833 R net pick up +38,137 Fulton County (Atlanta) - 102540 total 74854 D/27685 R net pick up +47,168 Gwinnett County (Metro Atlanta) 72,365 total 41,972D/30393 net pick up +11,579 Summary - total of non voters from those counties = 355,038, net pick up 127,384. The remaining 2020 non voter population is 480k. Next post will have scenarios, I don't want to retype this shit. Come at me bro.
  3. I completely agree that the media ecosystem is completely broken, but I do have hope. Someone, eventually, is going to realize that more Americans want actual news than infotainment, and they will emerge and crush the current mainstream crap we have going on. The current media is bloated, massively in debt, and lost in the wilderness. That is a situation that makes for perfect conditions for disruption.
  4. Happy Saturday all, time for the Georgia EV final update: 1. Total EV - 4,003,586 2. Female vote count - 2.238 million or 55.9%, Males 1.751 million or 43.7%, Other -15.1k 3. 2020 non voters - 835k or 20.3%, 18-29 309k, 30-39 139k, 40-49 109k, 50-64 151k, 65+ 122k 4. Racial Break Down - White - 2.36 M or 58.1%, Black - 1.058 M or 26.4%, Hispanic - 127k or 3.2%, Asian -113k or 2.8%, Other - 381k or 9.5% A couple of interesting things stand out in comparison to 2020. The Hispanic vote compared the total is off by almost 4 points in the negative. The Asian vote have jumped nearly 2 points during the same period, while Other has jumped 7 points. The black vote is off by percentage in 2020 by 2.5% in the negative, however, this isn't because of no shows at the polls, but rather changing demographics. Case in point, the white vote is down 3%, again, not because of low turnout, but demographics changes. I'm working on a final prediction. which I will post in the prediction thread, which will include more county information. So if you are looking for that, you can find it there. Bottom line, I'm very excited to see such amazing turnout and to see so many people exercising their rights to vote, in particular former non voters. Apathy is the enemy of the Democratic Party, and as I've said before, I don't see any here.
  5. I find myself in much a similar boat, though I've never been one to hero worship, which seems to be an issue for lots of people. As a shareholder, I honestly hope he gets deported and divested. I bought in early because I liked the general vision and agreed the auto industry was ripe for a shake up, that has been good to me. I've stuck with it because I've seen demonstrable results, both in product and profit, often times in spite of his childishness and kooky ideas. However, I never intended to hitch my wagon to a radicalized psychopath. Divesting from it now would almost seem like letting him win. Also, while I don't believe in him at all with anything, I do believe the company has the stand alone talent and capability of delivering. Just for the record, even though I know it's good for me, I am absolutely floored anyone drives that abortion of a truck, and yet every day, I see more of them. I'm not sure what shocks me more, just how fucking stupid it looks or the fact that some idiot paid 100+k for it.
  6. No private citizen is begging to made an example of more than him. I'm absolutely convinced that at this point his company's, save twitter, are successful in spite of him; and further, would be better off without him. In a way, I feel bad for the people at Space X, who are doing amazing things, and I don't think it would matter really who is in charge at this point. I might be in the minority here, but I'm highly interested in what they are doing with the Boring Company as well. I'll leave Tesla out all that. At any rate, he's put a big fat target on his back, whereas if he'd just kept his mouth shut and silently contributed, like most rational billionaires, he wouldn't be getting a second thought. I don't know what will come out of all this for him, beyond actually having to pay more in taxes, but people have long memories and I suspect he's invited way more trouble for himself than he ever bargained for.
  7. If you are trying to impress a lady, you have to go with the shareables. In my experience, nothing says, "I'm interested and serious" quite like the Triple Dipper. that might be deliberate, nobody wants to go to the Panthers, nobody.
  8. The AJC has reported that Georgia had 4,000,009 votes counted at close this evening, with more to be tabulated overnight. For reference, in 2020 the vote totals were 4,999,960.
  9. Well, some Republicans would never ever ever vote for a black woman, but here we sit. I'm not a Texas Hispanic, but the point is, giving up on people isn't the way. Even if we can't get to one generation, the next one may well be one election or two from being on the clock, and things change.
  10. I could describe W many ways, hero would never be included.
  11. well, it's either that or watch the San Jose Sharks.....
  12. California has a big enough homeless issue already.
  13. Just runs up the score a bit more in my opinion, I'll have some final math tomorrow with the totals of EV, but my guess right now it's over 100k Harris in Georgia right now.
  14. That's actually not true, and part of the issue for their leadership, the math moving forward gets much more difficult for Republicans. Their most bankable base, the elder automatic R voter will be dying in droves between now and then, and they know it.
  15. Much like the Chili's talk, and Hall and Oates, this is my fault.
  16. I should add, however, that once the big EV dump occurs in all counties, if my math is more or less correct, we will have approximately 75% of all votes accounted for. That's why I think Georgia will be called fairly early either way, because the bulk of the remaining vote will be Atlanta, and the math gets pretty easy for analysts at that point. I've been saying Wasserman says he's seen enough come 10:30 est, and right now, I'd actually bet the under on that.
  17. I do believe we will have a winner in Georgia relatively early, however, I'm not convinced that every county will be on the same schedule of data dumps. I.E., while the plan is for everyone to start dumping data from EV at 8 EST, I think that's unrealistic. I still expect big counties to lag.
  18. It's broken down a bit differently, but 30-39 on 2020 non voter is 118k. 40-49 is 95k. Of total non voter its female - 394k, male 331k, other 9k
  19. Let her know that she isn't alone, my wife, who did 2 tours in Iraq has never felt the need to carry as a civilian. However, should shit go south Tuesday, she is adamant about carrying from now on, while we finalize where we will be moving to out of the country (I don't really want to leave, but hey life is an adventure, so ok). She is also adamant about laying low for a couple of weeks post election because at least a few nutjobs will do something (I think she's absolutely right on that).
  20. That's my guess based on everything we are seeing. I took what I am calling a standard attrition of 2% and applied it across the board (i.e. deaths, people moving out of state, etc.). Then I added the 2020 non voters to date and add 10% on top of that for day of non voters. When I put all that together, I come to 5.7 million. I didn't account for the fact that 8.3% of day of 2020 voters have participated in EV, so it might be a little lower, but I don't think by much (think 5.4 to 5.7 million total votes). At any rate, apathy is always the Democrats biggest enemy, and to be quite frank, I don't see any (at least that jumps out as a huge statistical anomaly). If I had one slight, and I do mean slight concern, it's that the African American early vote is down relative to percentage by 1 point, I wish that wasn't the case.
  21. GA overnight takeaways 1. 3.695 million have voted 2. Women now outpace men by 438k, however it's a .1% downtick from yesterday 3. 2020 non voters now make up 734k, the 18-29 demo is 264k Today is the last day of EV, though mail in will continue to come thru. However, to date, the total mail in vote has been 230k, at that rate, any amount that continues to come in will be statistically marginal. This time tomorrow, final data from EV will be out, and I will work on a final projection in the prediction thread. My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.
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