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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. Georgia's EV raw data is in, and it's time for a final prediction.  The total EV, both mail and in person combined was 4.003 million, a tremendous turnout (2020's total was right at 5 million).  The biggest jump of the page number is the total of 2020 nonvoters, which is 835k.  To me, who these folks are voting for will tell the tale.  To be clear, I'm completely ignoring the 3rd party candidates in all this, as they represent such a insignificant portion of the vote. 

     

    Starting Point - I'm taking what I call a standard 2% attrition from each party.  This reduction is due to things like death, moving away etc.  

    Republican starting point - 2,412,617

    Democratic starting point - 2,424,160

     

    2020 Non Voter based on Democratic stronghold and  2020 percentage percentage, total county, anticipated split

    Bibb County (Macon) - 8230 total 5048 D/3181 R Net pick up +1866

    Chatham County (Savannah) - 25263 total 14903 D/10358 net pick up +4545

    Clarke County (Athens/UGA) - 9943 total 6960 D/2983 R net pick up +3977

    Clayton County (Metro Atlanta) - 18361 total 15607 D/2754 R net pick up +12,853

    Cobb County (Metro Atlanta) - 60,497 total 33878 D/26,618 net pick up +7259

    Dekalb County (Metro Atlanta) - 57,839 total 48,0006 D/9833 R net pick up +38,137

    Fulton County (Atlanta) - 102540 total 74854 D/27685 R net pick up +47,168

    Gwinnett County (Metro Atlanta) 72,365 total 41,972D/30393 net pick up +11,579

     

    Summary - total of non voters from those counties = 355,038, net pick up 127,384.  The remaining 2020 non voter population is 480k.

     

    Next post will have scenarios, I don't want to retype this shit.  Come at me bro.  

     

     

     

     

     

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  2. 2 minutes ago, quigley said:

    I disagree. I know several Trump voters of different races and income levels. Some of them are really, really smart. These are generally good people who I trust. One is a close friend. The media ecosystem in America is broken and feeds this lie that we're so different.

    I imagine you know several people from your time in the military that are Trump supports. Did they unlearn the lessons that brought them to serve?

    I completely agree that the media ecosystem is completely broken, but I do have hope.  Someone, eventually, is going to realize that more Americans want actual news than infotainment, and they will emerge and crush the current mainstream crap we have going on.  The current media is bloated, massively in debt, and lost in the wilderness.  That is a situation that makes for perfect conditions for disruption.   

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  3. Happy Saturday all, time for the Georgia EV final update:

    1.  Total EV - 4,003,586

    2.  Female vote count - 2.238 million or 55.9%, Males 1.751 million or 43.7%, Other -15.1k 

    3.  2020 non voters - 835k or 20.3%, 18-29 309k, 30-39 139k, 40-49 109k, 50-64 151k, 65+ 122k

    4.  Racial Break Down - White - 2.36 M or 58.1%, Black - 1.058 M or 26.4%, Hispanic - 127k or 3.2%, Asian -113k or 2.8%, Other - 381k or 9.5%

     

    A couple of interesting things stand out in comparison to 2020.  The Hispanic vote compared the total is off by almost 4 points in the negative.  The Asian vote have jumped nearly 2 points during the same period, while Other has jumped 7 points.  The black vote is off by percentage in 2020 by 2.5% in the negative, however, this isn't because of no shows at the polls, but rather changing demographics.  Case in point, the white vote is down 3%, again, not because of low turnout, but demographics changes.  

    I'm working on a final prediction. which I will post in the prediction thread, which will include more county information.  So if you are looking for that, you can find it there.  Bottom line, I'm very excited to see such amazing turnout and to see so many people exercising their rights to vote, in particular former non voters.  Apathy is the enemy of the Democratic Party, and as I've said before, I don't see any here.  

     

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  4. 3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

    My FIL, who was an early Tesla adopter, is fully convinced Elon is one of the smartest people on the planet.  I am also a Tesla owner and am very happy with my car and also appreciate Elon's early contributions to the EV sector, Space X, etc.  Yes, I know he wasn't the main catalyst behind some of that, but we can't deny the marketing push by his celebrity, at the very least. 

    THAT SAID, I tried to tell the FIL last week how Elon has completely lost his god damn mind and shouldn't be allowed to be on the board of pretty much any of his companies now and he was absolutely not having it. 

    FIL: "Don't look at his politics!  Look at what he's done to change the world!"  

    Yes, I too once thought this way, well, until his politics went off the god damn deep end.  Basically when he bought Twitter to spy on his girlfriend and Covid broke his brain.  

    I find myself in much a similar boat, though I've never been one to hero worship, which seems to be an issue for lots of people.  As a shareholder, I honestly hope he gets deported and divested.  I bought in early because I liked the general vision and agreed the auto industry was ripe for a shake up, that has been good to me.  I've stuck with it because I've seen demonstrable results, both in product and profit, often times in spite of his childishness and kooky ideas. However, I never intended to hitch my wagon to a radicalized psychopath.  Divesting from it now would almost seem like letting him win.  Also, while I don't believe in him at all with anything, I do believe the company has the stand alone talent and capability of delivering.  

    Just for the record, even though I know it's good for me, I am absolutely floored anyone drives that abortion of a truck, and yet every day, I see more of them.   I'm not sure what shocks me more, just how fucking stupid it looks or the fact that some idiot paid 100+k for it.  

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  5. 31 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    Imagine secretly talking to Putin while spreading lies and attacks on important Democratic politicians and important Democratic core voters on your social media site might make you enemies with the Democrats in DC?

    I am not sure what his plan was, just gamble that the Democrats would lose power and never gain it again?

    Though I guess I am unclear why the Democrats currently in DC are waiting around until November 5th to take care of this obvious national security risk.

    No private citizen is begging to made an example of more than him.  I'm absolutely convinced that at this point his company's, save twitter, are successful in spite of him; and further, would be better off without him.  In a way, I feel bad for the people at Space X, who are doing amazing things, and I don't think it would matter really who is in charge at this point.  I might be in the minority here, but I'm highly interested in what they are doing with the Boring Company as well.  I'll leave Tesla out all that.  

    At any rate, he's put a big fat target on his back, whereas if he'd just kept his mouth shut and silently contributed, like most rational billionaires, he wouldn't be getting a second thought.  I don't know what will come out of all this for him, beyond actually having to pay more in taxes, but people have long memories and I suspect he's invited way more trouble for himself than he ever bargained for.  

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  6. 17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    So, when Aubrey joins us at Chili’s on Wednesday night, should I order the 3 for me with the Smashburger, or go old school with an Old Timer with cheese (and pour one out for the Rojo Burger)? I really want to get this right, and make a good impression on her.

    If you are trying to impress a lady, you have to go with the shareables.  In my experience, nothing says, "I'm interested and serious" quite like the Triple Dipper.  

    2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

     

    poor guys draft stock is tanking

    that might be deliberate, nobody wants to go to the Panthers, nobody.  

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  7. 2 minutes ago, cattail said:


    This is spot on. Some of the most anti black racist folks I’ve ever been around are Texas Hispanics. It was eye opening and shocking. The democrats aren’t living in reality when they think otherwise. A not small percentage of that demographic will NEVER vote for a black presidential candidate. Makes zero sense, but it is what it is.

    Well, some Republicans would never ever ever vote for a black woman, but here we sit.

    I'm not a Texas Hispanic, but the point is, giving up on people isn't the way.  Even if we can't get to one generation, the next one may well be one election or two from being on the clock, and things change.  

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  8. 1 hour ago, Js1 said:

    And this. 

    Literally, just fucking elect her and then go back to picking Republicans in 2025/2026 and beyond.  For the love of God, you will get another chance in 2028 if she wins.  

    That's actually not true, and part of the issue for their leadership, the math moving forward gets much more difficult for Republicans.  Their most bankable base, the elder automatic R voter will be dying in droves between now and then, and they know it.  

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  9. 2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    I do believe we will have a winner in Georgia relatively early, however, I'm not convinced that every county will be on the same schedule of data dumps.  I.E., while the plan is for everyone to start dumping data from EV at 8 EST, I think that's unrealistic.  I still expect big counties to lag.  

    I should add, however, that once the big EV dump occurs in all counties, if my math is more or less correct, we will have approximately 75% of all votes accounted for.  That's why I think Georgia will be called fairly early either way, because the bulk of the remaining vote will be Atlanta, and the math gets pretty easy for analysts at that point.  I've been saying Wasserman says he's seen enough come 10:30 est, and right now, I'd actually bet the under on that.  

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  10. 29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    I know @BamaATL mentioned it, but in case it got lost, Georgia is confirming fast results on Tuesday.

    All early voting will release about an hour after polls close and Georgia officials anticipate being done counting by midnight. 

    Hard for me to see this drag through the week - GA says they will finish Tuesday night, FL is fast, NC is pretty quick, Michigan/Wisconsin are quicker than 2020 and PA had a Senate call just after 1am eastern time, so there's 5 of your 7 swing states who could finish or be close to finished Tuesday night.  We will, of course, wait all week for NV/AZ due to how slowly they count the mail and how long it can be received for. 

    I do believe we will have a winner in Georgia relatively early, however, I'm not convinced that every county will be on the same schedule of data dumps.  I.E., while the plan is for everyone to start dumping data from EV at 8 EST, I think that's unrealistic.  I still expect big counties to lag.  

  11. 4 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

    Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

    Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

    Let her know that she isn't alone, my wife, who did 2 tours in Iraq has never felt the need to carry as a civilian.  However, should shit go south Tuesday, she is adamant about carrying from now on, while we finalize where we will be moving to out of the country (I don't really want to leave, but hey life is an adventure, so ok).  She is also adamant about laying low for a couple of weeks post election because at least a few nutjobs will do something (I think she's absolutely right on that).  

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  12. 4 minutes ago, texastough said:

    Compared to less than 5 million in 2020? Seems good?

    That's my guess based on everything we are seeing.  I took what I am calling a standard attrition of 2% and applied it across the board (i.e. deaths, people moving out of state, etc.).  Then I added the 2020 non voters to date and add 10% on top of that for day of non voters.  When I put all that together, I come to 5.7 million.  I didn't account for the fact that 8.3% of day of 2020 voters have participated in EV, so it might be a little lower, but I don't think by much (think 5.4 to 5.7 million total votes).  At any rate, apathy is always the Democrats biggest enemy, and to be quite frank, I don't see any (at least that jumps out as a huge statistical anomaly).  If I had one slight, and I do mean slight concern, it's that the African American early vote is down relative to percentage by 1 point, I wish that wasn't the case.  

  13. GA overnight takeaways

    1.  3.695 million have voted

    2.  Women now outpace men by 438k, however it's a .1% downtick from yesterday

    3.  2020 non voters now make up 734k, the 18-29 demo is 264k  

     

    Today is the last day of EV, though mail in will continue to come thru.  However, to date, the total mail in vote has been 230k, at that rate, any amount that continues to come in will be statistically marginal.  This time tomorrow, final data from EV will be out, and I will work on a final projection in the prediction thread.  My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.  

     

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