Humble Beast

Deep bear market. Peak apathy. It happens. Nothing has happened to alter the bull case for bitcoin long term. Like every market in the world, dollar strength has hurt prices. How high can the Fed get away with raising rates before something breaks in markets globally? Several currencies, including big ones like JPY and EUR have experienced large devaluations. I was living at Jester at the time, but evidently the knock on effects of these can take a while to manifest if you look at past crises like 1997. (I don’t think it’s at crisis level yet however.) Spoiler: they end with Fed easing. This guy breaks this stuff down. A former Goldman trader. Excellent follow on the Twitters. A handful of people at the Fed control the entire global economy. Can you get a more centralized system? As for news the biggest recently was the Ethereum “merge”. Went off without a hitch as far as I know. I’ve been pretty vocal with my thoughts on it. Will be interesting to follow how things actually play out on a large PoS network versus the theoretical discussions that have happened to this point. Ethereans will now pivot pretty hard to trashing BTC and PoW mining.

The only sporting event I’ve ever been kicked out of was the Crabtree game about 5 minutes before that catch. Watched it on a big screen tv in the parking lot. CSB This game is massive for them in Lubbock. Always makes me nervous.

Pretty great (terrible) thread. Some good ones, but my favorite is the wife that just did one trade on her own in a year. Made $700k. She should’ve stuck with it! She has talent.

What’s going on in Lebanon is pretty crazy. I didn’t realize funds had been frozen for 3 years.

You want me to explain it like you wear a mask outside? Fine. GDP now is the GDP forecast of the Atlanta Fed. It’s updated with economic data releases and often deviates from wall st estimates. I’ve seen analyses before that show that it’s more accurate than St forecasts. The fact that it’s trending down and potentially going negative for the third quarter in a row is noteworthy and worth tracking imo.

Yep FedEx getting rekt. Pulled guidance for next year. Demand went off a cliff in August evidently.

No CR

I’m sure it’s more common amongst ER/OR personnel because they’re more familiar with starting IVs. And I would say that yes ER docs and nurses party more. ER nurses are typically young and fun.

So it looks the doctor that died did take the bag home with her, unknowingly hooked herself up to a tainted bag and was killed.

Supply chains are already stretched far enough as is, then this happens.

Agreed. But the difference now is if we had crippling deflation the Fed/USG could direct deposit thousands of dollars in the bank accounts of every taxpayer in America. It wouldn’t have to filter through any other mechanisms.

NSFW

Did Japan ever do helicopter money? If they did, certainly not to the level of effectiveness that could be achieved now. Electronic airdrops.

From what I’ve seen it’s at least a $500B write off from the Federal Government. As larger deficits have to be financed then more debt has to be issued. Who buys that? Well I hate to tell you but all roads lead to increasing US debt monetization via the Fed. That’s a discussion for the kindergarten thread though. Anything that accelerates that process is inflationary. As far as how else it adds to inflation more, if you’re removing $10k in debt from personal balance sheets then you remove debt overhangs on consumption. Also, POTUS explained if you remove that debt overhang from people then more people can start their own businesses etc. How does that happen? Those people go get new loans or better terms now that their balance sheets are improved. That’s literally money creation. I’m not saying it’s a massive effect, but again someone asked how you would curb inflation and I explained. Student loan forgiveness will boost inflation. Anything that artificially juices demand (consumption) does that.

This video is worth sharing for a few reasons. NSFW

I’m sorry. You’re right. I was thinking of the build back better push in the summer of 21 when things were already heating up. The other two I stand by. The inflation reduction act will be inflationary, as will student loan forgiveness.

🤔 They’re traditionally an exporter of electricity. Looks like slightly more than rolling blackouts. No big deal.

No. 90% of the time when a CR response starts with so… it’s filled with assumptions or hallucinations or what somebody said. Did I say it was his fault? I was asked what policies or principles I had that would curb inflation. I offered some recent examples. Heavy deficit spending is inflationary. Both sides do it. This has been coming for a while. If it had to go one way i would prefer tax cuts over increased spending because it’s people or corporations keeping their money and not the government misallocating or wasting it. Another key difference between tax cuts in Trump term and the measures I listed is that Biden’s measures have been pursued against the backdrop of already elevated inflation. You would think it would cause people to tap the brakes. But no. As for the Fed, a decade plus of QE and Zirp policy was a disaster for our economy and has laid the groundwork for a lot of the social unrest, disorder and inflation we see today. Unless I’m mistaken no President on either side called for it to stop. They only cry with tightening policy.

Yes. Precisely. If you’re looking for someone to take up for the Fed or our incredibly centralized system, you have the wrong guy to put it mildly.

They’re playing off what the Fed/Powell’s response will be. But the big kids here already knew that.