Humble Beast

UK getting hammered, but sharing this more for the comment from a thread favorite. As I saw it described online, the market is forward looking. It’s telling us there aren’t going to be enough energy in Europe this winter. All that’s left over is the rationing. Who wins and who loses. Unfortunately while helpful politically in the short term, goosing demand into winter by subsidizing usage is potentially going to worsen things. 80% storage is great, but no flow will negate that.

The ultimate goal for governments and elites worldwide. Can’t be allowed to happen here.

"No more of the arguments, and the back and forth and the vitriol and the finger pointing," she said. "Everybody should be treating this like the crisis that it is." from Chicago leader of public schools. I get why she doesn’t want to assign any blame. Mistakes were made. Smh.

Not any good options honestly. You don’t want mass closing of small business or residents getting 10x electricity bills, but each of these measures should exacerbate the problem unless I’m mistaken. Price caps will hurt supply. Windfall taxes will discourage exploration (longer term effect). Subsidization/bailout payments will keep demand artificially high through winter.

Very nice

Both ladies ripping the ball. Kontaveit not playing scared. Was surprised to see she’s 40-1 to win the tournament despite being #2 in the world. Made tour final last year.

I wonder if there’s a thread on USC site where people share their thermostat settings? Also, they ask you please not charge your electric vehicles during these times.

They’re going after Saylor now. I have no clue on the merits, but pretty Interdasting that he’s the first person they go after.

Coming back to the energy transition. If we’re really going all in on this, this needs to be addressed yesterday.

Bailout coming for consumers, not industry. Seems small in the “single-digit billions”.

Not Taiwan, but interesting.

Abominable propaganda? Banned? You need to calm down. I’m making an assumption here, but based on your recent negs you don’t like me making jokes about a gay couple’s dog getting monkeypox. Well I can assure you I don’t care at all about them being gay. I started a whole thread laughing at straight Colombian guys boning donkeys. If people get caught or admit to fucking animals I will laugh at it. Baaa means no.

Thanks again for telling me what I think. As far as my positions go and if they’re dynamic or not, I’ll just give two areas where my thinking has evolved over time. I used to be a pretty staunch free trade supporter. No restrictions. As i came to understand the effects of the resultant offshoring of jobs and hollowing out of our middle class I’ve realized protectionism has its place. Also on a semi related note, I’ve always been anti money printer as you know. I’ve come around to the idea that we will need large scale targeted fiscal stimulus to onshore every sensitive industry that we can and quickly. If we’re being honest it will support persistently high inflation and will weaken the dollar somewhat but will help ensure our national security. I don’t see how either of those are pro Putin stances, but you keep living in your fantasy world where Vlad is moving my hands on the keyboard.

You think you’re quite the mind reader, don’t you? I don’t think there’s anything European countries could do at this point to change the course of events. The cake is already baked, so your hallucinations about my unspoken message are moot. I’m more interested in following the repercussions of the energy price spikes and resulting shortages, as well as how the international financial system evolves. It’s a dynamic situation. Your thinking is very static so I realize it can be hard to keep up.

That was Ireland, but in any event I meant Europe the continent. Here is a UK example. There will societal fallout from this happening at scale. I don’t see any viable solution other than printing money and bailing people like this out to some extent. Unfortunately you can’t print more gas or more solar panels.

European politicians are going to need plans to deal with this asap.

Just realized the link wasn’t working. Working one in this tweet.

Crossposting from global spring thread. Noted Ctedit Suisse analyst I’ve shared here before. https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/fed2f2e0-3c1f-43f2-82b9-47b2159f15d3 Relevant to inflation thread. The kind of spending initiatives he sees as necessary and likely are going to be massive. The amounts along with continued de-globalization will continue to boost inflation. Also he ends with key point that for a couple key reasons there’s almost no reason for our adversaries to roll over their existing US debt into new debt purchases. More support for the idea that the Fed will have to step in bond market in a big way.

This is an awesome piece. Really good break down of the current geopolitical and financial situation. The world is being broken in the US led west versus sanctioned countries. He calls them Tricks. Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea. He also sees South Korea as a potentially more tenuous ally than i would’ve thought. https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/17ce71b5-5f54-4f5c-95a0-f35e70fd54d9 Too long to spoiler even but the ending sums it up pretty well. I’ve edited some content out in between these excerpts. “To ensure that the West wins the economic war – to overcome the risks posed by “our commodities, your problem”; “chips from our backyard, your problem”; and “our straits, your problem” – the West will have to pour trillions into four types of projects starting “yesterday”: (1) re-arm (to defend the world order) (2) re-shore (to get around blockades) (3) re-stock and invest (commodities) (4) re-wire the grid (energy transition)” “I think that the above four themes (re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire the electric grid) will be the defining aims of industrial policy over the next five years. How much the G7 will spend on these items is an open question, but given that the global order is at stake, they will likely not be penny pinching. If Tim Geithner were in charge, he’d put “a lot of money in the window” to show who’s in charge. And hopefully it will be like that... ...and if so, any investor will have to be mindful that the above to-do-list is: (1) commodity intensive (2) capital intensive (3) interest rate insensitive (4) uninvestable for the East” “Finally, uninvestability means that for certain large countries in the global East, it makes absolutely and categorically no logical sense to roll their investments in G7 debt claims. Not just because of what happened to Russia’s FX reserves, but also because rolling a $1 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities means that you will fund the West’s effort to re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire... ...against the East. And we are back to where we started on the cover page: Dale Copeland’s theory of trade expectations is the right frame to think about world from here, and sadly things make no sense to continue like they used to, be either from a real (trade/production) perspective or a financial (FX reserves) perspective... ...which is why Bretton Woods III is destined to happen. It’s already happening, and we will explore the Bretton Woods III topic in detail in our upcoming dispatch:”