Humble Beast

Hey I hope you’re right. I hope they don’t invade Taiwan at all. One thing that China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine have in common is that it is these countries #1 geopolitical priority. Nothing else is close. So the lengths they are willing to go and what will happen are harder to predict. What a pessimistic, misguided mindset to have. Discounts human ingenuity. Has been wrong for over 200 years and will continue to be wrong.

Oh shit, looks like we are about to hit the trust the corches phase.

They should leave sanctions in place. Russia can eabod as far as I’m concerned. My point stands that sanctions are not a game changer, especially near term when most of the action happens. To count on China getting “buttfucked by sanctions” is dumb. That was the whole point of the post, not Russia. I’m thinking about the next fight. The big one.

How do you think we would stop Chinese exports? Physical blockade? If Russia can re route their exports then I’m sure the #2 economy would manage. As far as what they import, I think if we try to sanction what they import, especially from other countries then we should expect a tit for tat there that will be extremely disruptive to the global economy and our economy. Acting like we’ll just sanction China and that will show them is naive imo. We depend on each other too much. Mutually assured destruction? If we want to stop them from taking Taiwan when the time comes, we have to be ready to get our military involved directly. The Ukraine/Russia playbook will not work imo. That’s great, but now if you want to expel them it’s going to take a massive effort. Sanctions take time to take effect and don’t always have the effect you think they will. See: Russian income/current account, and Ruble strength. Also, China can prepare for sanctions. We’ve telegraphed what we’ll do. I believe they have the largest grain stockpiles in the world. I shared the article a while back about new oil shipping tankers/routes that a mystery Chinese entity is creating. All I’m saying is if you think sanctions will be a meaningful deterrent or have a big effect on the outcome of any conflict with China I think you’re mistaken.

Damn

More evidence sanctions are overrated tool against larger nations imo. If they produce something everyone needs then it will get to market.

Holy shit this was brutal to read. If Scipio’s “insider/knowledgeable” intel was so fucking useless then why am I even reading all this crap like I can take anything from it?

Nobody likes to see their kids get screwed at a sporting event. And there’s a wide spectrum of behaviors that are how that is manifested. Any deeper than a pretty surface level conversation about why this happened and where would delve into CR territory quickly.

It’s still influenced by the extra liquidity that’s been put out there. It was up 3x over normal before Putin ever invaded. In any case, my guess is it will exacerbated by more liquidity coming in response to global slowdown later this year, early next year.

I know, just a nice parabolic chart. Will contribute to inflation however via electricity prices as well as supply chain disruptions.

Rhine River talk not going away.

How has Chad Wolf looked? Any buzz there?

Shutdown due to high energy prices.

Here’s a real world example of how people like Stassney’s position is untenable. Let’s say SS has a cola increase of 10%. But the poor people working at their jobs only managed to negotiated a 5% raise. We need an expanded IRS squeeze that extra 5% from somewhere. We’re squeezing the last dollars that we can out of everyone.

In WashPark’s defense there are deflationary headwinds. I would say there’s been globalization, demographics and debt levels. But we’re nationalizing supply chains now so that’s inflationary. But yes you’re right that he wasn’t worried about inflation until it was elevated, and now he expects the Fed to go hard. I’m on the record that the Fed cannot or will not go as hard on hikes as the Fed fanbois think. This is getting out of their control.

Good to know. Seems like Putin’s best play is to squat and hold gains as much as he can until winter, then see what effect the energy crisis in Europe has on things financially and politically. That is the real wild card here imo. No one can say with any certainty how severe it will be or what the second order effects will be.