Humble Beast

Just heard an interesting timeline laid out for how inflation could play out over the next 6-12 months. US economic data seems to indicate that the economy is rolling over and thus inflation should come down to the 6-7% range. The next shock to cause a bump in inflation will be related to the European gas crisis. As we get to November and December and there are real natural gas shortages due to Russia cutting off supplies, then a lot of European and especially German industry will have to be curtailed. Unfortunately this will cause a new supply chain shock throughout western economies akin to the Covid lockdowns. We could then see a bump in inflation to double digits. I’m not sure what to make of the prediction numbers wise, but the reasoning makes a lot of sense. It doesn’t matter if Covid shuts down your factories or if it’s a lack of energy. Same problems result. And Germany specifically is quite integrated in western supply chains. Damn. And to top it off there’s no reason outside of benevolence for Putin to not pursue this strategy. They’ve already been pushed mostly out of the global economy by sanctions so less concern about global supply chains. He obviously isn’t too concerned about the day to day of his own population anyway. Plus you get a nice boost in inflation that will further challenge highly indebted Western nations. This is bad. I guess something to watch. Hope it doesn’t transpire in that sequence.

As we’re seeing in Germany this not only hurts residential consumers, it kills industry when you’re paying 10x historical rates for electricity.

NeonMoon wants to cut spending. Bozo sounds like a Ron Paul acolyte/sound money acolyte. These are money printing bottom signs. We should get money printer brrrrr soon. What will cause it? Idk. Emerging market blow up? Something Eu or Japan related? Those are my guesses based on who the strong dollar is hurting most.

Love that this is in primetime. They just had mens 100m heats. Personal crush Allyson Felix about to run in some heats as well.

I think outlawing import or use of synthetic fertilizers is a long way from just “doing anything green”. Do you have any dispute with the argument that mandating organic farming was a tipping point in Sri Lanka’s decline? Or did it play just a minimal part in your mind?

More Sri Lanka/Germany breakdown here. A crazy stat I had missed was Germany’s first trade deficit in 3 decades in May. Their energy policies are going to lead to industry leaving an economic powerhouse.

I would trust you, a trained Marine, over these cops. I’m telling you these guys are not military. You graduate high school, then go to the Junior College and get certified and become a cop. This whole disaster has been really weird. When you know a story more closely than the news heavily reporting it, you realize how much the reporting can shade things.

Well put. hey man, if he wasn’t raised in a family that produced super bowl mvp quarterbacks or college football legends then he would never be ranked so high! Ok, but he was. He has all the physical size of his uncles and I see a strong arm on tape. Supposedly he loves talking ball too. I mean he’s on their trajectory clearly. This is dumb.

I’m just laughing at the parade of blowhards acting like you know how the fuck you would act in such a situation. Handling life and death situations is a unique deal. I watched the video. Those guys were all scared shitless, especially initially. Cowards yes. But eventually more and more people showed and I think they kept waiting for someone to show up with a fool proof plan. Oh look now they have rifles. Oh look now they have shields. But it took a cedar chopping mother fucker that didn’t care, to go In and lead the charge. The leadership is/was at fault. If they had strong leadership at the beginning they would’ve been able to stop it earlier. You’re exactly right. But these aren’t Dallas Pd or anything. It’s small town officers. Took the Border Patrol that deal with shady shit to handle it.

I generally don’t like cops and these guys all fucked up majorly but that falls on their leaders to make them do their jobs they were trained to do. They chose the job, but being a Uvalde cop does not stress you in that way, so you’re not prepared. You just give speeding tickets. Until you’ve been in life and death situations you don’t know how you’ll handle it. I’m guessing a lot of the people maddest about it, never have been in one. A lot of you that are most emotional would fuck up. Just saying.

Wow I had no idea the baby maker was DB coach at A&M. Incredible

Jesus you’re old.

I don’t know percentages, but you have to include ESG/energy transition on your list. A massive part of the supply side problems that people like to blame is underinvestment in fossil fuels. Look at the poster child for green movement, Germany. Shutting nuclear plants for environmental reasons while paying astronomically for natural gas. And it’s only going to get worse. Also, an another input is prolonged easy money policy. Way before all this shit happened we kept rates zero and continued QE for YEARS past when it was “necessary”. Just priming that pump. That’s demand side over time.

I agree that even 1 is justification. It wouldn’t have been many though. Evidently a lot of them were shot in the face. TMI. After watching to the end I’m not sure of what all can be done. Obviously all law enforcement leaders there need to be fired. I’m not sure what legal remedies are available. If there’s criminal charges or lawsuits related to negligence that can be brought they should be. The rank and file, while cowardly and pathetic, weren’t refusing to go in after being told to. Everyone was standing around with thumbs up their asses. Not sure what else can be done about that. The town needs police officers and most of them are locals who got trained at the junior college in town. So much of this stuff is complicated by all the interminglings of a small town. I just found out today that the male teacher that was injured is Pete Arredondo’s cousin. Can you imagine? There’s tons of stories like that that complicate things. I’m sure these feelings are behind a lot of how the mayor and officials are acting. They realize the town cannot move on if they’re tearing each other up, but then they go about it in jackass ways. I’m sure they’re worried about liability as well. There’s a lot of anger in town. People want to blame somebody and be mad at somebody about it all because it makes no sense for someone to do this. It’s hard to accept that there’s just fucking evil out there. And also now people are fighting about money which never helps.

Yeah there was a lot less of the shooting at the funeral home and walking around. He just got after it. The guy walking in a vest over a plaid button up shirt and jeans at 1:18:45 is the guy that took him out. If you follow him the last few minutes you see he’s the one who finally goes all the way to the back.

Neither. It’s all bad. The town is really broken up about it all. I’ve seen people that were there come out saying not to blame the cops because it’s the gunman’s fault. If everyone stays mad at the cops then no one in town will be able to move on. I don’t know if I agree with that but I understand it. It all sucks.

Actually 100% sure it’s him. Im only 15 mins into the full length tape, but it’s a painful watch. They’re obviously scared shitless and not trained very well. They didn’t do their jobs. Or even close. We’ll never know how many they could’ve saved. Sadly I don’t think it was many. He did a lot of shooting before they showed up. Another striking thing from the video was how quickly he moved. Media reports and stories I heard made it seem like he was walking around outside a long time. It gave me chills watching the people walk up to the wrecked truck and then run away in horror. One person falls over doing it. Then he emerges from the ditch. Just awful.

I’m 99% sure thats the teacher’s husband that’s a cop. I’m sure he’s dealing with a lot of guilt and what if’s.