Shady Ray

Yeah, been absolutely balls deep at work since the spring and haven't posted as much as I would have liked...particularly given the absolute plethora (no/ElGuapo) of quality content that could be derived from this shitshow of a federal government. I'll be in Berlin all week from tomorrow morning early, so I should have a long train ride to try to capture the clusterfuckery of this government. Hell, who knows, maybe Christine Lambrecht will still be Federal Defense Minister, or maybe she won't...or maybe she and Scholz will just keep ignoring the questions whether she plans to resign or not. Hell, does it really matter? The creation of "Schrödinger's Bundesminister for Defense" during the largest European war since 1945 is par for the course for this idiot Regierung.

Yeah, the political angle has been really, really front-and-center here, which has surely been felt by the players. Their biggest sponsor, Rewe Supermarkets, just now pulled sponsorship yesterday over the armband issue, so lots of distractions and unwanted interviews/attention for the players. I don't know how the coverage has been on Fox in the US has been, but here on ZDF it has literally been: Pregame = Reports on human rights violations; Opening kick until halftime = game coverage Halftime = Reports on human rights violations End of half through extra time = game coverage Postgame = Reports on human rights violations And that's not to blame ZDF...fuck FIFA for allowing this shitshow to occur. But that said, yeah, there are a ton of Croats in Munich...around 60k total. Around 300k in Southern Germany alone. And yeah, they ran their own shit. von Horstenau sent a note to Heinrich Himmler (yeah, thaatttt Himler) saying, "Gottttt damn, these Croats are fucking ruthless. Their concentration camps are not nearly as civilized as the extermination sytem you built, Heinrich." Wild shit. Lord help us all if the Serbs and Croats somehow meet up in this one.

Reporting from Munich. The Germans are very pessimistic about their chances to even escape the group. 2018 rattled the confidence in the national psyche. The Croatians around town, on the other hand- of which there are plenty- feel they are gonna win the whole damn thing. I’ve seen more Croatian Checkerboards than German flags this AM then ever before. Will be a fun day.

Not quite sure where else to post, but I’ll give it a shot on this thread. Wife miscarried at 6 months along a couple months back and God damn we are struggling. We are in our early 40s and childless and are realistic enough to know that this was probably our last chance. Adoption isn’t something she is interested in so we are doing that strange dance of looking at each other and knowing that we are all each other has moving forward. Over the last 3 weeks I have started to wake up nightly worried about dying early and leaving her alone. Every morning at 3:30. Like clockwork. I know it sounds stupid for someone at 42 years old, but I am really stressed over it. My job is in govt relations in Germany for a large German company and this Russia shit has me buried balls deep at the office at the moment. 18 hour days isn’t an exaggeration. Trying to balance work and home life and I am absolutely crushing it at work, but not necessarily at home. So it’s taking it’s toll. Kinda lost at the moment. Not sure what to do, but I am doing my best.

Munich central train station about an hour ago. Sat there sipping a beer waiting for my train for about an hour and probably saw 500 come through across 3 trains. Mainly women, children and a lotttt of elderly. Can’t imagine what they are going through.

That is reallllly complicated at the moment in Germany. The past month basically consisted of the centrist parties (SPD, Greens, CDU, FDP) trying to A) outdo themselves to get ahead of what they were trying to identify as the public mood, and B) inoculate themselves against an avalanche of external criticism from the collective West. That result tended to be hawkish wrt sanctions and anti-Russian measures. However, as I said in one of my longcat posts of the past, gauging German sentiment is VERY difficult to do. Germans at large simply do not behave the same way as other western electorates when it comes to public display of politics. That whole Nazi/Stasi Combo tends to do that. They are not particularly vocal - individually or as an interest group/block outside of Organized Labor. They don’t tend to demonstrate. They don’t tend to openly discuss controversial matters and the difference between a German speaking outside of the house and a German speaking in the privacy of their own homes is extremely different. And I know this tends to be the case with most people to a degree, but public/private opinion is much more disparate with Germans. This is of course a result of the country’s past and the extra steps taken to publicly appear “open and accepting” wrt to foreigners. And Germans tend to have an implicit understanding that media/politicians are going to say and do things designed to show Germany as a progressive, tolerant place. And so long as they quietly toe the line on putting German interest firsts generally, the press/public statements can write what it wants without much backlash. Basically Germans expect their politicians to ACT in their interest, but they don’t have to SPEAK in such a way, per se. No one is going to ding a pol for misspeaking to the global press. So, this combination of things makes it really tough to read the tea leaves as to the mood of the country. But, that said, I think we have entered into a new phase where the electorate has remained largely understanding of the steps that have been taken to date wrt sanctions and generally sympathetic to the Ukrainian people. However, I do feel that is coming to a new phase to some degree. Scholz came out last week and said “there is no compromise possible” when it comes to an embargo of Russian O&G in the near future. Italy then supported this position. But the rest of Europe is pushing for this and the current German government is very susceptible to this type of pressure, as the SPD and Green identity is one geared towards pan-European integration/solidarity/acceptance. But, the politicians recognize that this is simply not possible for the country. There were studies that came out last week in Germany from the Economics and Finance Ministries and other respected institutions that essentially said that an embargo would result in immediately collapsing the German economy with hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately gone like kraut-fueled farts in the wind. And the people are terrified of this and at least a majority of voters are not going to tolerate such a hasty move just because people in Brussels or Warsaw or Kiev are bitching at the Germans for not being team players. However, something like an escalation in Ukraine via Russian chemical attack or expansion of the current war plan would put immeasurable pressure on the government, which then might feel compelled to agree to the embargo, at which time, all structural supports within the various political parties would collapse and where the cards would fall electorally would be anyone’s guess. The question of how deep the sympathy of the average German runs for Ukraine is very much up for debate. No one really knows at this point, but I would bet it ends right about the place where German interests start to take any more of a hit. Right now, the shifts in the weekly polls have been rather benign…the Greens lose a couple of points to the SPD, or vice versa; or the Free Dems lose a couple to their ideological cousins in the CDU, or vice versa, but nothing particularly seismic (notwithstanding a blowout election in the Saarland yesterday where the SPD made major gains, but which was seen as largely local-issue driven). Which is insane given what all has gone on domestically since last September’s elections…but none of the mainline parties are particularly distinct right now - they all kind of blend together - so people are somewhat confused as to differentiation. So, I guess you could say that we are in somewhat of a holding pattern politically. Although I think anyone who genuinely understands German politics knows that something has to give when push comes to shove, which will likely occur once the fallout comes when the hit to Industry comes, along with a rapidly increasing rate of inflation. It is also worth noting that Germans are much, much less tolerant of inflation. This is a nation of cash hoarders who are obsessive inflation hawks, always tuned into the real inflation rate. But the other point that is slowly bubbling up is a growing German backlash to being publicly chastised by the East Europeans, specifically the Poles. Poland’s openness to military action has gotten it a lot of good press in the West, but the Germans are drawing a line politically on Polish/Baltic/Ukrainian leveraging of the situation to gain influence on “tangentially-related” Ukrainian war issues. The German government is being careful to support common European political positioning here, but they are not going to allow the current Polish government to be seen as leaders on anything outside of the Ukraine war, as up until the war were seen as complete nut jobs on other issues important to the European project. So the government is essentially drawing a bright line between prior concessions such as weapons transfers/NS2 and future, less-directly related issues like EU membership, special status for Ukraine, etc. I don’t see a lot of coverage of this in English language media, but it is definitely there in German press. For example, a rush to EU membership for Ukraine. The Poles and the Balts and other former Warsaw Pact countries have been really loud over the last two weeks essentially demanding a "fast track" for Kiev to join the EU, with Zelensky blasting the Germans explicitly a few days ago as being the biggest obstacle for that. This has not gone down well, and even the mainline commenters have said, “Sure, those like the Poles who take take and take from the EU coffers are more than happy to let another net-taker in for more euros sent eastward from GerMoney. But in reality, we cannot and will not allow this.” This has been backed by the Dutch and the Nordics, which means any talk of “fast tracking Ukraine” is likely all for show at this stage. But Zelensky is starting to be seen in a similar light as the Polish leadership, which isn’t good when it comes to influencing Germans in the long run. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, the relationships between the Ukrainian and German governments aren’t good and any positive steps made by the Germans to date have ultimately been made as nods to the US and Brussels, but not to Kiev. And on this topic, Germany is very united. I think that’s why we have seen a resurgence in stories (there was a fresh one this morning in Welt that was literally entitled "Ukraine Really is This Corrupt") reminding the country of how deeply corrupt Ukraine is. The Government isn’t going to budge on this. There was a discussion on the Anne Will program (big political talk show) over the weekend basically saying, “The foolish acceptance of Greece into the EU with their corruption and cooked books has set back progress in the EU/Eurozone by years, and damn near killed the common currency…we aren’t going to rush to green-light Ukraine out of the same concerns.” 
Same goes for refugees…the level of centrist support for temporary, fixed stays (as opposed to open-ended invitations as per 2015 crisis) has been much more subdued than it was with the Syrians in 2015. The Germans are going to accept them and house them until the war stops, but the government and opposition are already pushing out plans to register them and to essentially make it impossible for there to be any form of voluntary relocation within the country from smaller regional centers to more “exciting/interesting” places like Berlin, Munich, and Hamburg, which already struggle to provide housing for their own citizenry. And then, once Ukraine is deemed safe, the benefits will stop immediately. This is a volatile issue that none of the politicians really want to re-open after the clusterfuck of 2015. So, I guess to answer your question…it isn’t clear yet. Germans are gonna German, so the support isn’t nearly as high as elsewhere in Europe. My own personal impression is that the business and political communities are hunkered down trying to avoid negative PR just hoping this will blow over so they can recalibrate next steps.

Yeah, there is a lot of ugly stuff surrounding this that has been a subject of a ton of controversy for years here. And it has gotten even worse over the past week, where almost every major daily has run stories about Azov and its less-than-savory elements. But for clarity, no one here outside of the extremist fringes on each side believes the problem is so bad in Ukraine that it justifies/mitigates the moral bankruptcy/criminality of Putin's invasion. However, I do think if Putin would have limited is actions to the Donbass it would not have triggered nearly the reaction that it has here, as the Germans essentially viewed the Donbass issue as an Azov vs. Separatist issue and were prepared to look the other way. Just another example of huge miscalculation on Putin's part. And as background, a lot of the attention to this issue within Germany over the past years has been self-inflicted by the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, who has made Germany's support of Ukraine much more difficult politically. One of the first things he did when he became ambassador was to take a highly visible and highly promoted trip to the grave of Stepan Bandera here in Munich - over the very loud objections of the Merkel government - at which time he attempted to rehabilitate Bandera from Nazi-collaborator/antisemitic war criminal to "Hero of Ukraine" while standing in the middle of Munich, which of course has significance in German culture as the birthplace of the National Socialist movement. This infuriated the Bundestag, which then formally restated the genocidal acts of Bandera against Jews and Poles and reaffirmed the German position that Bandera was a war criminal who colluded with the Nazis to exterminate Poles and Jews. I remember when it happened and the entire political spectrum in Germany essentially, did a collective "What the fuck?" headscratch as to why he thought this was such a necessary move as ambassador to the country that was essentially bankrolling Ukraine's existence at the moment, particularly in light of the 2014-2015 events. It was really ugly. People here didn't (and still don't) really understand that that era for Ukrainians was complex, with Nazis on one side and Soviets on the other...so the nuance of "allies-by-convenience" re Ukrainian nationalism is easily lost for modern Germans, who are understandably trained to knee-jerk strongly against anything that could be seen as excusing/justifying Nazi atrocities. So this creates fertile ground for the Russians wrt Azov and the neonazi narrative. Ever since that time, the relationship between the German government and Melnyk - and therefore by extention Ukraine - has been absolutely terrible...and the stage was set for repeated public discussions about Azov and its ties with neonazi movements within Germany like Der III Weg and the NPD. Which did, in fact, occur regularly on public media...stories on the ZDF showing the Azov regalia, and quoting its founder, Biletsky, etc, which was pretty severe stuff, and documenting ties between the worst elements of German neonazism and Azov, etc. Melnyk through this and a variety of other regular invocations of Germans-as-Nazis helped inject the issue into the national discourse, which in a perverse way only resulted in amplifying the Russian propaganda narrative, which definitely caught on across party lines. This basically gave the Russian propaganda high-octane fuel to embed into German political coverage, which was then exploited by the Russians and by Putinverstehers in various parties. We are seeing the attempted unwinding of this phenomenon now. So that said, the information environment on this topic in Germany is very different than it is elsewhere, as the environment here is obviously quite different when it comes to Nazi-era topics. But again, no one here views this is as justification for what has gone on, and given the brutality of this war, most people now understand that less-than-desirable people are going to end up with German weapons, and that is a price that Putin's actions have caused. Melnyk's history as ambassador here was subject to a write-up on this yesterday in the Frankfurter Rundschau (which is an established paper traditionally associated with the SPD government), where you can get an idea of the tone of the debate:

Prior to this past week, I would agree with you. But after the past week spent in the UK, which consisted of workdays mixed with booze, dinners mixed with booze and work, and a couple of nightcaps that got way too boozy and ran way too late, I have come to the sad realization that I have four consecutive nights in me - max. The horrors of getting old. But I would definitely find a way to "enjoy the sites" during the latter half of that time, so I guess your point nevertheless stands. That said, I am miles behind on this thread. Will read up while my pounding head and aching body recovers now that I am safely back home. But I can report without reservation after a sample size of approximately one dozen very chatty London and Edinburgh cabbies: Nukes over Moscow would be a widely acceptable next step to this voting block.

Robert lookin rough, but his voice hasn't aged at all. Chvrches as a backing band sounds great, also.

Someone Who Isn't Me can confirm that this is absolutely the case. In fact, Someone Who Isn't Me has been on multiple calls lately where the sentence "well, how long until we have to leave the country again and get our assets seized?" has been asked. And if I didn't know very certainly that that Someone Who Isn't Me wasn't you, I would think it was - in fact - you, given how accurate this statement is.

https://www.politico.eu/article/gerhard-schroder-in-moscow-to-meet-putin-in-ukraine-peace-bid-sources/ Gerhard Schröder in Moscow to meet Putin in Ukraine peace bid: Sources Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is in Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday as part of a mediation effort to end the war in Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter told POLITICO. Schröder has come under fierce criticism at home and abroad for refusing to sever his close ties to Moscow following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Even several of his office staff quit last week after he insisted on keeping his senior roles at Kremlin-linked energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom. Schröder, a Social Democrat, served as German chancellor from 1998 to 2005. He has since enjoyed a lucrative business career thanks to his Russian energy roles. “Ukraine wanted to see if Schroeder could build a bridge for dialogue with Putin,” according to a person familiar with the matter. Last week, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, suggested Schröder could try to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. German government officials said they had not been informed in advance of Schröder’s initiative. ============== I mean, I guess its better than a pipeline... but still...Gerhard? Now?

Fear not...Germans can't handle spicy food whatsoever. Particularly that of the messcan variety. So that medium ain't gonna have no kick whatsoever. No exagerration here, but I have had the misfortune of eating store bought German salsa (which in English might as well translate to "ketchup with onion chunks") that was labeled as "hot" and it is something that babies in Texas could handle straight from the bottle. On the other side, quite a few Germans have had the blessed fortune of having a "mild" version of my homemade stuff, and their reaction was as though they had consumed the core of Chernobyl itself. Pussies.

Great recommendation. Thanks a lot for sharing.

Great stuff, Troph. Many thanks for the Cliffs Notes. Seems like a gathering spot of truly learned guys/gals with a focus on what is truly important in life: boats and Cajun's proclivities for going full-on Wooderson on the Water... *Slips on smoking jacket, lights pipe, and pours a fine scotch...and clicks on Page 1 of thread with great anticipation*

Good stuff, 956. Thanks. Another question for you (sorry if this has already been posted, but this thing moves so fast): Have we seen any significant information re the UA forces in the East around Donbass? I know that at the outset of the war, the majority of their forces were stationed along the LOC around the Donbass, but most of the media coverage has been focused on Kiev, Kharkov and to some degree Mariupol, as of late. But the situation around Donbass seems rather static through this whole thing and I haven't seen much movement or coverage on this. Seems like it should be a bigger deal for the Russians, since maximum damage could be inflicted there, but focus on Twitter and in the media of all languages seems to be quieter re the East. Just wondering what's up over there...

I would agree...but the bottom two is a grudging concession for me. Got the shit kicked out of me by two ne'erdowells in Kaunas at the confluence of the Nemunas and the Neris when I was out on a late walk with a smokeshow Lithuanian that I had been trying to get to know in the biblical sense of the word. Took her to a nice dinner in Old Town and thought it would be good idea see the river after dinner. It was, in fact, not a good idea. I was young, dumb and thought I would show my manliness by trying to throw hands instead of just departing with a $60 watch that I picked up at Stein Mart on Anderson Lane and a fistful of litas. That, also, was not a good idea. Vaida took me home and nursed me back to health. Anyway, good luck with that dude, Russians. You'll need it.

I lived in Kaunas for a year in the early aughts. I know it has modernized quite nicely over the past 20 years, but if one thing is for certain: you don't want to fight with bartenders from Kaunas. And you definitely don't want to fight with bartenders from Kaunas who feel compelled by righteous anger.

Lulz...China gonna take all those Russian resources without even setting a foot in Siberia. Prepare that anus, Vlad...Xi gonna shove his Wang Yi so far up that ass it'll be Peking out ya throat. Yeah yeah yeah...I'll see myself out: ————- China considers buying stakes in Russian energy, commodity firms Any deal would be to bolster China's imports as it intensifies its focus on energy and food security — not as a show of support for Russia's invasion in Ukraine, sources said China is considering buying or increasing stakes in Russian energy and commodities companies, such as gas giant Gazprom PJSC and aluminum producer United Co. Rusal International PJSC, according to people familiar with the matter. https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/china-considers-buying-stakes-in-russian-energy-commodity-firms?r

Well, shit...fucked up that photo...let's try again:

Got damn, Troph, this is great stuff. Wish I could pos rep even more. I remember that exact feeling when starting law school, so hits close to home and all that. I binged a bunch of intro to sailing shit on Youtube last night and woke up so excited that I just said "fuck it"... turned on my out of office reply, loaded up the dog and drove out to the farm this morning just to check it out. Hopped onto a relatively empty A95 autobahn heading south towards Innsbruck at around 6:30 AM and felt excitement that I hadn't felt in a long time. Not sure what I thought I was going to do once I got there outside of walking around the boat with Eli Manning Dumbface, but once I got there I proceeded to, well, errrr, walk around the boat with Eli Manning Dumbface. But it sure was fun. Anyway, I will sit back and learn as much as possible from this thread...but before doing so, I took a pic... looking forward to posting a bunch more come May:

Yep. I mean...not to be too cynical, but the longstanding obstacle to closer ties with Ukraine has not really had anything to do with the Ukrainian people, but rather the high level of corruption within its existing state structures. But essentially importing its people and leaving the corrupt system behind...welllllll, that's something that blonde-headed, blue-eyed European industry can get behind. There was an article in the local Münchener Merkur newspaper today that was essentially titled, "Munich Construction Industry Ready to Support Ukrainian Refugees With Jobs" and I thought, "Lulz...I bet you fuckers are...for a lot less pay than your average Pole or Croatian". But yeah...Western Europe can virtue signal all it wants, but its a lot more palatable to its electorates for a bunch of blonde Ukrainian's to show up at the central train station than other iterations of migrant waves. I have followed the "anti-foreigner" commentary already today on German TV and the discussion has been, "Where are we going to put them given our urban housing shortages?", which is actually a valid question, but one that the country will sort out. But it is much different than their previous narrative surrounding the Syrian/ME influx, which was basically "Beheadings: Will they do them before or after they rape your wife? Next after these messages."

Yeah, this is going to be a huge deal. Germans are saying that Berlin Hauptbahnhof got 15,000 on Sunday and another 15k yesterday, which is small potatoes given what Czech is going through. It is absolutely unreasonable to expect the immediate neighbors to bear this type of brunt given their relative size and economic capacities, so there can't be the resistance by other EU member states to accept some type of distribution scheme the way there was in 2015 with the Syrians/others. I think a lot of lessons were learned in 2015 and there is going to be zero fucking about in Brussels when it comes to countries across the Continent pulling weight...this absolutely cannot be left for Poland and Czech to manage alone. You don't take your share and provide support, cohesion funds should be cut. Period.

Heh. I've been on the wagon since Jan 1st and plan to be until next week when I am in London and Edinburgh for work. Otherwise, trying to get into post-apocalyptic fighting shape, so keeping the extra beer calories away. But if shit goes sideways and Bob the Golden Retriever is on the menu, Looter Guy from Katrina will no longer be the go-to meme for booze looting...it'll be a dude in a burnt orange sweatshirt rolling a keg of Augustiner Helles through the darkened streets of central Munich. I'll make this site so proud on my way out.