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Everything posted by Shady Ray
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I have mentioned this on another thread, but Tagesschau is THE nightly news program in Germany. It comes on the main German state broadcaster, ARD, at 8:00 PM and approximately 20 million of the 80 million Germans tune in for it nightly. The opening "gong" rings, and everyone sits down and watches this show. Last night they started off with this as the top story. Full article is quoted, but the highlight: In the Labour Party, the government's unwillingness to take action against money launderers is seen as a problem of the Conservative Party. The Tories are said to have received around six million euros from supporters from Russia over the past ten years. Foreign Minister Truss wants to act quickly. She announced new sanction rules and promised in the House of Commons that those with ties to the Kremlin will have no place to hide - which caused laughter among MPs, because the martial announcement contradicts reality. Many company shares disguised Merely finding out who owns what is quite difficult in the UK. Company shares or real estate are registered to companies overseas. It is almost impossible to trace them. In addition, although the commercial register is transparent for everyone to see, "the authority that keeps the commercial register has no way of checking all the information. In some cases, there's transparent garbage being put together," Keatinge says. "That means there are companies registered in the name of Mickey Mouse, or in the name of a two-year-old girl. Experts are calling for an authority that can track entries in the commercial register, a registry for overseas companies and a strengthening of the National Crime Agency, the investigative body. The proposals have long been on the table, says Keatinge. They just need to finally be introduced in Parliament. Liz Truss has promised that this should happen by the end of 2022. This is probably too late for sanctions to be enforced more effectively. The video is in German, but they post it online with a written accompaniment: This goes hand-in-hand with the sudden stories about US hypocrisy re Russian oil imports. Point being, regardless of whether they are analogous to NS2, Germany is prepping the ground for a situation where if Berlin has to take a hit, London will as well. And if London isn't ready to make that commitment, Berlin isn't going to either.
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As far as influence is derived from the ability to set one's own agenda and autonomously influence certain goings on, they have very little remaining. They will do what they are told by Washington, perhaps running ahead so long as Washington allows them such room. But their front running is done at the permission of Washington and if it ever became problematic to DC, it would stop and they would do as they are told. So IMO they have no true independent agency in this matter. Their military might is completely and entirely at the discretion of the US approval. There is no possiblity that they would ever use that threat without Washington's approval and coordinaton, so in that sense, they are simply an extended US military operation based in the North Sea. They have dutifully lapdogged every stupid policy detour we have been involved with and they have never so much as once exercised any form of independent autonomy with respect tothe US. So it is in that sense that they are an afterthought. They have no power within the EU whatsoever and they cannot influence the situation economically. So in that sense, they are even less significant than an Italy or a Poland, as at least those two can influence within the EU. And while I agree with you that in theory they could make meaningful steps with sanctions, the Tories are completely exposed if anything beyond nominal hand-slaps are doled out as sanctions. Londongrad is absolutely swimming in Russian illicit cash and the existing Tory Govt is too implicated, too weak, and too gutless to do anything significant there. The powers that be in the City of London have no interest in opening up this up. Mrs. Shady is an attorney who worked in the City of London for a few years in the mid Twenty-Teens and she swears it was the most blatant organized money laundering environment she had ever seen. It was absolutely everywhere in certain quarters and it was completely open and obvious. Oh, they'll make a show about slapping an oligarch or ten in Belgravia or Chelsea, but there are way too many British political careers at stake with anything meaningful and the UK economic outlook is certainly not conducive to gutting a major part of their financial service industry, which is essentially all they have left. And while I totally agree that it was a dirty move, at some point Truss needs to know how to handle herself in what is clearly going to be hostile territory. I mean hell, she took an absolute dressing down not even a week ago by the Russian Foreign Ministry for not knowing the difference between the Baltic and Black Seas. This was more than enough notice that her ass was in the crosshairs. And this is pure Idiocracy type shit in a Foreign Secretary. She should show at least a modicum of a clue on the subject matter, or she should stay home leaving it to those who do.
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And this was a complete own-goal. Does anyone think that Truss set out to accomplish anything beyond elevating her own image with an eye on replacing Boris with this trip? Was her input truly needed in this tense situation? No. It wasn't. No one in Foggy Bottom or in Quai d'Orsay is saying, 'let's see what that whip-smart gal Liz Truss can get done one-on-one in Moscow with Sergey Fucking Lavrov." The Brits are a complete non-entity in this conflict, and increasingly so in international relations as a whole. The US matters. The Europeans matter. The Russians matter. The Ukrainians matter. But who in a position of influence in this conflict gives a single fuck what the UK says or does independently? Sure, they can and should signal unity with the allies. But they can do that from abroad like the rest of those not directly involved in negotiations. But is a high profile time-suck from a two-bit player. The US is involved because, well, its the US and the most powerful country in the world and the guarantor of security on the European continent. The Germans and French are involved due to their role as guarantors of the Minsk Agreement, and informally due to their status within the EU. The Ukrainian involvement is obvious. But outside of some unilateral arms shipments and some token troop movements, the Brits have absolutely zero influence here. In fact, the higher profile their involvement, the higher the obstacle to unity becomes. And as @956 Worldwide said, the Brits know good and well that Russia reserves a particularly heightened level of disdain for them and is always gunning to humliate them. Plus, there are huge, huge swathes of French and Germans who will quite literally recoil from anything that the Brits are involved with, particularly after the completely embarrassing shit show they wallered around in throughout Brexit. And the relationship between the French and the Brits - even by those historically sorry standards - is at a particularly terrible point at the moment. Moscow knows that they are just going to do what the US says. Brussels knows this. DC knows this. Berlin knows this. Paris knows this. Mons knows this. Hell, the entire world knows this. So only within the self-inflated ego of a long-dead empire with a recent pattern of self-inflicted gunshot wounds to its own global influence would one think that a high-profile visit from a vapid idiot like Truss would be a good idea. But there is some good news in that the she may not be stuck on foreign policy matters much longer. The bad news is that the odds makers in the UK have her in the top two potential PM replacements for Boris. I would say that there is no way the UK would be so dumb as to elevate her into No. 10, but they do seem hell-bent on reaching peak dysfunctional irrelevancy, so let's not count her out just yet.
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I don't think this was some type of "gotcha" game though. Per Kommersant and the Financial Times, Truss repeatedly told Lavrov that Russia needed to "withdraw its forces from the Ukrainian border" and Lavrov essentially asked the question, "Why? This is our territory...do you not recognize our sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh?" To which Truss responded, "No, Great Britain will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions" Here is a screen grab from the Kommersant article... I mean, it a reasonable expectation that if you, as the Foreign Secretary of a NATO power, nuclear-armed member of the UN Security Council, in the midst of the closest thing we have had to major war in Europe in decades, sit down across from the Foreign Minister of Russia and make the position that the RF should withdraw its troops, you should at least know what fucking geographic region contain the troops you are referring to. It's not like Lavrov threw out some random oblast in the east and said, "Tell me about Magadan Oblast." Due to deference to US leadership in global affairs over the past 60 years, much of the rest of the West has allowed its chief diplomatic posts to become filled by completely incompetent morons who only care about their next political gig. So when they run up against hardened, top-tier diplomats like Sergei Lavrov or Wang Yi, there is always the chance that they are going to have their pants pulled down and spanked like the naive foreign policy neophytes that they are. Bottom line is that there are at least a half dozen people on this thread of degenerates alone who could off the top of their heads identify that Rostov was a Russian Oblast on the Ukrainian border where one of the five administrative divisions of the Russian Military is headquartered (which also happens to be the literal focal point of the Russian buildup), who would then go over and click "Hook 'Em" on a set of perky tits on the Sugar Daddy thread or comment on one the fine cuisines prepared by one of Vic Mackey's lovely ladies. So, it is reasonable to expect Truss to be able to read a fucking brief on the flight while heading over for her photo op, or, at least ask for clarification instead of just running head-long into "Never. We'll never recognize it." And while we can all dismiss this as just a stupid foreign policy kerfuffle, which it certainly is, there are people across Europe who look at this type of juvenile behavior coming from the UK (and lets not even get started on Boris Johnson) and it just serves as one more notch in favor of sitting this one out if this is the leadership we should expect from a NATO power and UN Security Council member. And hell, the complete disaster of her visit isn't just Russian spin ...her twitter feed re this from Brits is absolutely brutal (albeit hilarious) in a way that only the jaded, cynical Brits can do.
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And of course, fucking TASS is all over it pumping out propaganda for all the dim bulbs, claiming that the UK is now refusing to recognize Rostov and Voronezh. The Guardian is saying that she continued to insist on "never" recognizing the oblasts multiple times until the UK Ambassador to Russia finally stepped in and corrected her. Jeeeeeeesus. Top British diplomat refused to recognize Voronezh and Rostov as part of Russia — source After Truss’ statements urging Moscow to move its forces, located on Russia’s soil, away from the border with Ukraine, Sergey Lavrov asked his British counterpart if she recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions. MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss refused to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions at talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday, a source close to the negotiations told TASS. After Truss’ statements urging Moscow to move its forces, located on Russia’s soil, away from the border with Ukraine, Lavrov asked his British counterpart if she recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions. According to the source, Truss insisted that the UK would never recognize Russia’s sovereignty over these regions. Concerns over Moscow’s alleged preparations for an ‘invasion of Ukraine’ have been increasingly echoed throughout the West and in Kiev recently. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov castigated these statements as an ‘empty and groundless’ escalation of tension, emphasizing that Russia posed no threat to anyone. At the same time, the Kremlin press secretary did not exclude some possible provocations to justify such claims and warned that any attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict by force would carry extremely serious consequences. https://tass.com/world/1401173 Can the Brits just sit this one out? Maybe have a few drinks at No. 10? Or maybe go to Beijing to open the pork markets?
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But you should actually appreciate this...it makes your girl up in Berlin look absolutely Thatcheresque by comparison.
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He did. I think he said, "Talking with her is like a deaf man trying to talk to a blind man." And then he walked off the stage leaving her alone on the podium. Lavrov has a particularly heightened level of disprespect for the UK. He has been firm but respectful to all other FMs, but got damn was he brutal today. But Truss represents the peak "social media-ification" of what should be serious positions. Completely unserious climber who up until a few weeks ago actually was being tossed around as a possibe replacement of Boris, although I think that will go to Rishi Sunak. What kind of adult - much less an actual, high-level cabinet member of the United Kingdom - runs around obviously attempting to re-create photo moments of Margaret Thatcher. Today's clear attempt to invoke Thatcher infront of the Kremlin was peak cringe. It was apparently 40 degrees in Moscow today and there she was decked out like she was in the Siberian winter just so she could act like Maggie. She is a completely vapid idiot. Also, Lavrov having to tell her to settle down and let the translators finish translating was even worse.
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Jesus Christ, the UK is such a fucking disaster. How can you send a Foreign Minister to meet with Sergei Lavrov who doesn't genuinely care enough about the issue to know that Rostov Oblast - the fucking massive oblast that borders the literal focal point of tensions in Southeast Ukraine - is part of Russia. I mean seriously, Rostov-on-Don is the HQ of the Russian Southern Military District...it is literally in the name. It is in the first sentence of the Wikipedia entry for "Russian Southern Military District".
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I think you have this pretty well nailed-down. IMO, the chaos has been on balance a W for Putin…so far, at least. He has absolutely laid bare the fault lines between EU/NATO member states. He is facilitating the removal of any final vestiges of empathy that the Germans have for certain East Europeans and the stage is already being set for a new Chancellor in Germany who is at least open to the idea of removing any Merkelian velvet glove to leverage all those German euros over the East. There are already rumblings about that in the press here…it is basically, “Wait, what? We give billions to the Poles and the Ukrainians to fix their backwards infrastructures and they are going to continually bring up National Socialism and blast us in the international media because we don’t want to give the nutters running Ukraine our weapons or allow them to have continued influence over our gas supply as a transit state? Ok, we’ll see about that once this blows over.” Of course it isn’t stated this way, and this is of course going to be packaged in full-on Euro-diplo-speak and carried out by the next Chancellor, but its coming in some form or another. The view here is that the EU is hamstrung by the concept of each and every nation being able to thwart a move by the rest of the block and in order to truly carry out change/self-determination, that is going to have to be reined in, and German chauvinism is going to inevitably come back to the age old German criticism of the EU “we pay the cost to be the boss here.” Of course, @956 Worldwide’s prior post about the Czech view on federalism perfectly encapsulates the view of the other side on this. And there is the completely neglected coverage of how rickety the internal Ukrainian situation is getting by the day due to the external pressure on an already dysfunctional and ruthless domestic Ukrainian political landscape. There is absolutely a strong argument to be made that the existence of the Russian pressure alone is fracturing the existing political environment. Anyone who says that Ukrainians are rallying around their leadership at the moment is straight lying or uninformed. The exact opposite is happening. The former president, Petro Poroshenko, a first rate corrupt oligarch con-man has now regained the lead in the polls over Zelensky and is exploiting every day of this tension for his own gain, along with the pro-Russian elements who are doing the same. And if Ukraine descends into intra-Ukrainian bickering and chaos, which is truly the Ukrainian way, all the more benefit for Putin. And the divisions between Western Europe and the US right now are glaring and to a large degree are being papered over as simple “neighborly disputes” in the media. From Putin’s standpoint, the mere threat of military conflict in Ukraine has been enough to generate public degree of divergence within the western block. If anyone thinks that there is going to be a “rally ‘round Ukraine” effect here in Germany if Putin goes actually in, well, I have a shiny new German-engineered bridge to sell. At most, there would be a short moment of collective condemnation until the impact actually hit Germany, and then there would be complete outrage throughout the electorate. And that outrage would be directed everywhere…Russia, the current German Govt, Ukraine, the US, and perhaps even NATO itself, as Stoltenberg is seen here is far, far too belligerent and inflammatory for his specific role. No one can accurately say who would bear the brunt outside of the current coalition government, but there would be enough displeasure to go around. But from a strategic perspective, why invade? What could Putin possibly gain that isn’t currently unfolding due to the mere escalation of pressure? Both in the EU and within Ukraine? He doesn’t want to invade and occupy Ukraine…why would he? The only piece of Ukrainian land that contains strategic value for Russia is Crimea, which is already a fait accompli. They don’t need the space, and they don’t need the resources, and I just don’t buy that he would do such a ridiculous thing for some idea of East Slav romanticism. He would inherit nothing but problems. He is not stupid enough to believe that he is going to be able to install some pro-Russian stooge to run the place after invading and withdrawing…the country is far too galvanized against Russia and there are far too many weapons lying around to secure a pro-Russian Govt’s monopoly on violence. Any such puppet-regime would be completely fucked the second Russian troops withdrew. They just wouldn’t have the numbers for that. So in that light, I just don’t see why he would invade. Attack, yes...sustained invasion, I just can't see it. But he has diplomatic concessions yet to secure, which to a large degree justifies his continuing to go "all in". But hell, I admit I could be wrong. Additional ramblings spoilered for length below...
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Yeah, I am not saying it holds water, but it will with the German public who is getting sick of the entire situation and is getting tired of being preached at by the US. The Germans are slow to get rolling when it comes to breaking with the US, but the wheels are now turning. This is playing out exactly like Iraq War 2. And Scholz isn't nearly the bulldog that Schröder was, but the next chancellor is going to have a serious set of balls and is very much prepared to move toward an independent way...and the rate Chancellor Scholz is going in the polls, "Chancellor" Merz is going arrive a lot sooner than any of us thought.
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As expected, Germans starting to hit back at US pressure in the big papers. Top story in Die Welt this morning:
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Wow. Deutsche Welle continuing their change of tone in coverage to actually introduce Finlandization by name into the conversation. They also get into the disconnect with the US. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-us-show-disunity-on-russia-policy-says-expert/a-60698151
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Ukraine’s Army Is Underfunded, Outgunned and Not Ready to Stop a Russian Invasion The Defense Ministry had proposed spending money on pricey waffle towels when basic supplies were more urgently needed. ByMarc Champion , Daryna Krasnolutska, and Nick Wadhams January 5, 2022, 6:10 AM GMT+1 ... When the Defense Ministry came to parliament in December with its shopping list for 2022, news of the Russian troop build-up had long since broken. But the number of bulletproof vests it wanted to buy was just half the amount needed for current troop numbers, let alone the reserves that would be called up should a Russian invasion materialize, according to Serhiy Rakhmanin, an opposition lawmaker and member of the parliamentary committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence. Due to a lack of funds, there weren’t enough rifles or helmets on the list either, said Rakhmanin, a former journalist who has been critical as a lawmaker of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his government. There was however a request for remarkably pricey waffle towels and Soviet-era radiation detection equipment that’s no longer of obvious utility. “I had a question: OK, let’s say war starts tomorrow, do you really need this stuff?” Rakhmanin said. The towels and detectors were removed from the list. The Defense Ministry has pledged to upgrade its procedures, blaming delays in procurement on bureaucracy and promising to reduce classified contracts in order to reduce corruption. Multiple requests for a response to Rakhmanin’s claims did not elicit a comment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/ukraine-news-army-underfunded-not-ready-to-stop-a-russia-invasion
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Merkel is said to be 5'3", so using the Merkel Measurement, neither Putin, Scholz, or Macron appear to be over 5'4"...and hell, Zelensky isn't even a full Merkel. So yeah, we are probably fucked.
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Writing to you bunch of degenerates is a welcome coping mechanism used to distract myself from pointless meetings and those certain teleconferences about mundane shit I don't really care about. So, in fact, it is you who should be thanked...or blamed if I die in an industrial accident because I didn't pay attention to some corporate BS about emergency safety management this morning.
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This is the ultimate question. The German speaking reporter from Reuters followed up with Biden after he said "If Russian tanks cross the border, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it" by asking him, "but how will you do this since this is a German project under German control?" to which he said "I promise you we will be able to do that." And he may be correct...sanctions from the US are certainly powerful deterrents. But how will that play here? My guess is not very well. If the US starts to sanction German companies associated with NS2, who have invested billions in German infrastructure, to benefit German companies and German taxpayers, it is going to be politically very difficult for German citizens to support German politicians who fail to take an active, hostile position to the US. Particularly if rolling blackouts occur. It will be open season for anti-Americanism here...well, at least more open season than it already is, which is, of course, always en vogue to some degree. This has a major risk of being seen as heavy handed interventionism and if that happens, it won't be good. The Americans need the Germans to get on board, but if they do, they run the risk of committing electoral suicide if war kicks off and the power goes out, which no politician will do.
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The general perception in this morning’s big papers here is that Biden’s statement re NS2 was an attempt to pressure Scholz publicly and that Scholz’s continued refusal to even address it by name is a strong indicator that Germany, in fact, is not prepared to kill it outside of the most extreme example of "invasion". And this sentiment is further supported by the fact that yesterday Ukrainian President Zelensky abruptly cancelled his previously scheduled meeting with a few hours notice with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on the grounds that she would not commit to killing NS2 in case of an invasion. IMO, the Zelensky cancellation is even stronger proof that that the German government has not, in fact, agreed to kill it. This has brought intense scrutiny to the crumbling Ukrainian-German relationship, with Zelensky and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister getting special scorn in some corners of the establishment. IMO, we are treading dangerously close to a discussion that neither the US nor the German government wants to have publicly in Germany, specifically that of the sovereignty of Germany with respect to its own domestic issues such as energy supply. And while I personally understand the fact that this is by no means a purely domestic issue, it is nevertheless widely is seen to be that here. Political opponents on the right and left flanks of the centrist parties are already throwing around words like “colony”, “vassal” and “occupied”, which is, of course, silly, but which will gain traction in some degree if this is seen as the US asserting its own power to unilaterally kill a project that corporations, trade unions, and professional services providers alike all want to see come into place...and that the Germans spent billions to build. Generally speaking, overt US influence in Germany is not something that is desired, but it is something that will continue to be tolerated so long as it is not disruptive within domestic affairs, and a unilateral killing of NS2 will be seen as precisely that. Above the fold this AM, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung addressed this as a unilateral action by the US today, and not a joint position: On an anecdotal note, I am onsite at our corporate HQ for much of this week. As is the sacred practice of all employees in Germany, we took lunch yesterday precisely at noon at the company canteen, which is essentially the melting pot of all elements of a German company and is THE place where company gossip, politics, current events and news are discussed over inappropriately high-calorie lunches which tend to render the second half of the day fairly uncomfortable and unproductive. By pure happenstance I ended up sitting across from the head of the company’s Betriebsrat, which is essentially a government mandated “Workers Council”. This is effectively a minimum “independent” labor union that every company is required to have, even if the business itself hasn’t opted to become part of a larger Trade Union. And in companies that do have a unionized workforce, such as ours, the head of the Betriebsrat is typically a factory/laborer type employee with tight ties to the relevant industry trade union, which in our case is one of the big boys of the “Big 8” unions which make up the larger “German Trade Union Confederation”, which is the largest and most powerful union confederation in Europe. This forms the hard core of Olaf’s SPD electorate. The SPD IS trade unionism in Germany, and trade unionism IS the SPD. They are twins born from the same movement. Anyway, I have known him for a while, so we can speak relatively freely. Our conversation of course turned to the Russia situation and I honestly couldn’t determine who was more pro-NS2…our C-Suite or the foremen on our factory floor. And that is what is so sensitive here…we often talk about German Industry and I think it is inevitable - particularly in the US - that people associate “Industry” as big monied interests with interests in lower overhead and access to Russian markets who lean on bought-and-paid for politicians. However, in the case of energy supply, that is not strictly the case. Trade Unions like IG Metall and Ver.di, which are EXTREMELY powerful in Germany are pressuring Olaf and his SPD, medium-sized business owners (of which there are a TON in Germany) which are dependent on affordable energy for proper margins are pressuring the CDU and FDP. White collar workers and corporate execs are pressuring the CDU. Rank and file commies are pushing die Linke and the far-right is pushing the AfD. The only ones not getting any pressure from their base are the Greens, who are ultimately going to be dragged down into the dangerous single digits if energy supply gets squirrelly. And the media is pushing, of course, as they tend to have a larger degree of transatlantic tendencies due to the fact that they run in much more international, cosmopolitan circles. So what we are witnessing here is a president who is getting beaten up in the media for not being hard enough on Russia, while he is responsible to organized constituencies that have no desire to damage Germany’s own interests for Ukraine. With respect to the Macron coverage, which I agree totally with @956 Worldwide's take, the German coverage is definitely in line with what 956 identified as the French take. The German press has given Macron really strong support this morning and have definitely fallen on the side of “progress is being made with Putin and the path of Macron should be taken seriously”, which to some degree is a backhanded way of saying “the US is exaggerating the inevitability of war.” Here is a full translation of top story in die Welt, which is one of the major daily papers: To me, this really does feel like the French and Germans are working in concert and preparing to throw a ton of pressure on Ukraine to re-implement elements of Minsk 2. And we will probably get some sense of that over the next week, as Macron is set to meet with Zelensky today and Scholz will see him next week. It seems that they are trying to create an image of a “third way” between the Russians and the US. And I think it is important to point out that while we understandably talk about the French and Germans in this context, there are quite a few other EU member states who are quietly avoiding the slings and arrows while hiding behind the Germans. These would also prefer to protect their own national interests over having anything to do with Ukraine. I am thinking specifically about the Italians, the Austrians, the Hungarians, the Greeks, the Croats, the Slovenes, perhaps the Spanish. Point being that a French-German attempt to placate Russian demands is not going to be isolated to those two countries and I expect there to be a more public alignment between the Franco-German position in coming weeks if this continues to draw out. Which, of course, is a benefit to Putin as the cracks within the EU and NATO are definitely showing.
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And, with Whisperin' Olaf Scholz on his way to the US to meet with Biden this week, he gives a final interview with German state media, ARD, where he is asked about NS2. Early last week Jake Sullivan said that NS2 “would not be going forward” if Russia attacks Ukraine. That would be a huge development here, and to date it was simply treated as an throw-away statement coming out of the US and has not been confirmed by one single member of the Govt. They have been asked about it multiple times, to which they dutifully answer the way they have for months: “As always, all options are on the table", but none of them have been willing to confirm or to commit to what Sullivan said, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out tomorrow in DC, as Olaf is certainly going to be pressed on it. I can tell you that the phrasing that he uses in German in his answer is an exercise in significant wordsmithing: “Wir haben sehr konkrete Vorbereitungen mit unseren Verbündeten in der EU, mit den USA sind wir im engsten Gespräch über die möglichen Sanktionen, die wir ergreifen können.” This translates roughly to “We have very concrete preparations with our allies in the EU, and we are in close conversations with the USA about possible sanctions that we can take.” The way this is phrased in German is “yeah, we have prepared with our allies in the EU, and we are talking with the Americans about what we can do.” He then goes on to specifically say, “we have agreed that we WILL decide together when the time is right”. Very, very noncommittal language here that indicates that nothing has been agreed to date. He also announced that he is going to Moscow next Monday, as well as Kiev. https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-travel-kyiv-february-14-moscow/ https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/vor-seiner-usa-reise-interview-gipfel-mit-dem-kanzler-ein-wort-meidet-scholz-wie-der-teufel-das-weihwasser_id_49619911.html Finally, German Minister of Defense doubles down once again saying no weapons to Ukraine, but that they will consider sending additional troops to Lithuania. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-considers-bolstered-troop-presence-in-lithuania/a-60676609
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The highly influential French diplomat Hubert Védrine (Former Chief Foreign Policy Advisor and Chief of Staff to François Mitterrand/ ex French Foreign Minister/ regular Macron foreign policy advisor) gave an interview to Le Journal du Dimanche that came out this morning. He indeed seems to be setting a very different narrative for French audience consumption leading up this week’s diplomatic activities, and this should be seen as coming from someone very close to Macron, so it is more significant than some washed up diplomat. If this captures Macron's thinking, then it is definitely going to ruffle some feathers in the US. Védrine talks about how the strategic value of Ukraine to the Alliance/Finlandization should not be a taboo subject, talks about how this is not just about Ukraine but that the whole of European security should be up for discussion (the US has tried to focus the discussion on the Ukraine issue), and criticizes the American reliance on sanctions, specifically calling out the "sanctions industry" in the US as being "the worst of American policy". Full article machine translated and pasted below, as it is behind a hard paywall. https://www.lejdd.fr/International/hubert-vedrine-au-jdd-le-statut-strategique-de-lukraine-ne-peut-pas-etre-tabou-4092063
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Macron to see Putin in Moscow on Monday, then on to see Zelensky in Kiev on Tuesday. Good coverage from France 24
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Yeah, I gotta watch it or I'll end up deep even deeper in the weeds, and nobody wants that. But I really do believe that we are in the middle of a very critical phase in EU and Transatlantic politics that has the potential to be a watershed moment which analysts will eventually identify as a spot where things started to change into a new era of multi-polarity. Europe is flat footed here, but necessity is going to require it to catch up. There is an intrinsic pulling of attention to the East - particularly with the Germans - and there is very much a conflict within the German elites themselves as to whether a third-way/triangulation position is viable. One of the things Wilkerson in the above video talks about is Colin Powell saying to him in 1989, "After Mitterrand and Kohl are gone, the future leaders of Europe will not have their identity re atlanticism firmly rooted in the actual experience of the War. That's when the transatlantic relationship will fray and then sever." I think we are simply dealing with this natural drift of a relationship that is exacerbated by lots and lots of mercantile interests in Russia and China. Again, I go back to the above video at the 10:10 mark where you actually have a DW anchor saying, "The trust that was broken by the US arising out of Iraq War II lingers in the minds of Europeans to this very day. We see it every day in our reporting. There is a suspicion that the US wants war and that its end-game is the establishment of perpetual war which demands the continuous production of weapons. Is there validity in this suspicion?" To which Wilkerson replies, "there sure is." This is unbelievable content coming from German state media. It is far and away the most criticial that I have ever seen DW and I really don't see that it is being accurately covered in the US at the moment.
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You would think, but there are a lot of other issues going in the background that - at least to a French President or a German Chancellor - are far more significant than the future of a Ukraine that, let’s face it, no one in Paris or Berlin really cares that much about. Plus, neither government really believes this is as likely/possible as the US/UK does. Ultimately, from Macron’s standpoint, this whole issue in Ukraine is a major distraction that is now costing him precious time in an environment in which he FINALLY has some room to maneuver now that Mama Merkel and the British are gone. Macron has a certain idea of how Europe should look and function. Outside of the budgetary hole left by Brexit, which was certainly a loss for the EU, the departure of America’s proxy in Brussels has given France much more opportunity to shape Europe. Macron envisions some type of EU that is co-lead by France and Germany and which functions in much more of a federalized way…specifically in abandoning unanimity and moving to majority voting for foreign policy/security decisions taken by the block. Unfortunately for Macron, however, Germany doesn’t quite see things this way…yet. The Germans associate the Latins/Greeks as being lazy and living beyond their means, always seeking help from the bountiful, supple German titty, all so that they can continue living their nice and comfortable ways of life while the Germans work their asses off (relatively speaking…by American standards the Germans don’t work nearly as much or as hard). However, with the departure of Merkel and the subsequent “unorthodox” and unstable tripartite coalition in Berlin, Macron has a golden opportunity - at least in his mind - to secure meaningful reform with respect to fiscal policy and as he so often calls it “strategic autonomy”, for the EU, supposedly allowing for less influence from non-EU powers….read, the US. While boring in comparison to topics of war and peace, securing reforms in this direction would be legacy-defining acheivement in the grand scheme of European integration. After his likely re-election in April, Macron would be able to focus entirely on his goal of this further EU integration, which will invariably benefit France across the board if they are the ones driving it in Brussels. And by reasonable estimates, he would have 2-3 years to make meaningful changes in this area, as Germany is not up for another federal election until late 2025. So he’s hoping to maximize the few years that he has to work with a generally soft, malleable Olaf Scholz in Berlin, who comes from a party open to deeper European integration, even on issues of finance and budgetary matters. This is a golden opportunity for France to reshuffle the upper echelon of EU politics and policy, and it would allow them to set the initial course on what will be a greater journey to a reformed EU with their targets in focus. But there is a huge, huge problem for Macron's vision on the horizon...and that is this guy: Friedrich Merz was just elected head of the CDU, after they had run en entirely incompetent, pathetic little man, Armin Laschet, against Scholz last September because the CDU couldn't stand the idea of letting a popular Bavarian from the junior-partner CSU, Markus Söder, take the Chancellery. Laschet squandered a 25 point lead in the six weeks following his replacement of Merkel atop the CDU. He was a disastrous candidate. Don’t even get me started on his incompetence as a politician. But in the time since Merz formally took over the CDU a couple weeks back, the CDU has reversed course and surpassed the governing SPD and is moving towards re-solidifying its recent position as the dominant political party in Germany. This should not give any hope to those who think that the SPD is suffering losses due to their non-involvement position re Russia, as in fact the CDU is just as obstinate on that front. They want NS2 and they oppose SWIFT/Banking sanctions. They might make some noise supporting a reconsideration of arms to Ukraine, but nothing beyond tokenism made for the sole purpose of rattling the Scholz government in its early days. Anyway, Merz is the complete and total opposite of the CDU coin from Merkel. He is known to be ruthless, he is blunt, he is cocky, he is comfortable with public displays of power, and he is much, much more comfortable with a Germany that publicly flexes its muscle at the EU level, even if it is perceived to be in a patronizing way towards smaller and weaker EU members. He is also the closest thing that Germany can get to having the highest tier of German Industry formally in the Chancellery. He is a corporate lawyer/executive-level operator with a deep, deep history in conservative governments stretching back to the early Helmut Kohl years, where he and a group of other young Christian Democrats decided to form a tight knit group called the Andean Pact, in which they all agreed to help escalate each other into the highest level of German Industrial and Political Power, which they successfully did. He is something akin to a German mix of Dick Cheney (minus the hard-on for foreign wars and interventions), and Helmut Kohl insofar as he will advocate ruthlessly for German interests within the workings of European politics and will go a long way to secure them. Without getting into historical details, Merkel knifed Kohl in the back, thus washing this inner core of CDU “good old boys club” out of the scene for twenty years. With Merz back - which Merkel did everything possible to thwart for the past 3 years by escalating lesser, weaker CDU “heir apparents” - the heavy hitter Conservatives are back and likely to assume the levers of control of Germany, so the CDU will look and behave much differently, which will influence the dynamic at the EU level. But perhaps nowhere is Merz more rigid and austere than with respect to the EU financial mechanisms. If he rises to the Chancellery, the idea of European debt subsidized by Germany will be killed. The Bundesbank will become assertive again vis a vis the European Central Bank, as it was a few years back, and Merz will have an indisputable mandate from the voters NOT to budge on any deeper financial integration. This is a huge problem for Macron and Draghi’s goal of a power shift to a Rome-Paris alliance. That will be dead in the water, which will kill the foundation on which this Franco-Italian reformation plan is built. Here are yesterdays German polls: As you can see, the trends favor Merz and I would not be one bit surprised to see the CDU settle back at around 35%, with the SPD settling back to 17-19% within six months. Because that is the natural political landscape here. The 2021 election was an anomaly driven by Merkel Fatigue and Incompetent Armin Laschet. So you have a weird situation where a new Chancellor kind of backed his way in without a true political base, which is terrible for stability. But the fundamentals of German politics put the CDU at around that 33-37% mark, occasionally rising into the low 40s under Angie. But what is important to remember is that Germany is currently in a three-way government with two center left wing parties, plus this weird third wheel Free Democrat party, which essentially represents peak German mercantilism/social liberalism and is only tangentially invested in this government's success beyond their own political upward mobility. This is the first time in the Post-War era that Germany has needed a three-way coalition, so we are in uncharted waters here, but the fact that the new inherently weak coalition had no time to get its sea-legs under it before this Ukraine crisis kicked off has left it completely unstable and ripe for snap elections within the next 18-24 months. Furthermore, there is a huge scandal bubbling up involving inappropriate dealings between Scholz and the Warburg Bank, stretching back to his time as mayor of Hamburg. I won’t bore with the details, but just know that it is ugly stuff and the question is not “if” that scandal hits, it is “when.” The discussion on that is starting to shift from the whispers of the political class to larger distribution increasing visibility and my bet would be it will explode at a time when the CDU is ready to assert enough power to get to a possible two-party coalition, possibly with the Free Democrats, who, of course, are in the existing Scholz coalition as the red-headed step children. If early elections happen, Merz will be the next chancellor. And if they somehow don’t happen and the current coalition serves out, barring some type of drastic scandal involving Merz, he will still be the next chancellor. And the day that happens, Macron’s vision of a future EU will be much, much less likely. So there is absolutely a window here of anywhere between 1 and 2.5 years that is ripe for the picking SO LONG AS Europe doesn’t get bogged down in the issue of Ukraine. And as much as we have discussed Macron’s nascent idea of an EU Army, Merz is even more hard core on that front. While he is a transatlanticist to some degree with deep connections to Washington, he is ultimately a Europe Firster and will be much more open to accelerating a path towards an independent EU foreign policy, only in this case, the spoils of such an eventual expansion will not only go to the French Defense Industry, but will also be shared with German Industry. So, on one hand, Macron will have an ally in the drive to push deeper into an independent path, but on the other hand, it will not be driven solely by Macron and will be influenced by a much more assertive German Chancellery. Here is a letter he co-signed from 2018 relating to the need for deeper European integration on military matters between France and Germany. He specifically calls for immediate steps towards deeper military integration between the “original members of the EU, plus Poland and the Baltics" and the abandonment of unanimity on foreign policy. Of course, if this ever got going it would be a long, slow process, and it will be one that the Poles and the Baltics will be skeptical of, given their tight relationships with NATO and the US. However, with someone like Merz and Macron at the helm of German and France, you can rest assured that Merz specifically will be much, much more willing to leverage EU cohesion funds to try and bring the Eastern Europeans into closer alignment with the Franco-German view. That has shown to bring mixed results, but my point is the tone will change and there will be intense pressure from the big players for deeper integration. I totally agree with 956 that Europe's ability to do this has been less than effective. It has actually been an embarassment to behold. But the drive hasn't really been there, and the question will be whether this is an actual first step towards anythingn significant. So, back to the original point, both France and Germany have major incentives to get this resolved and done ASAP. France wants it done so Macron can maximize the remaining time to drive deeper integration on his/French terms, and Scholz needs this to go away so that his government can settle in from the constant shaking that it has experienced since it took over and prepare for the ascendant CDU. Scholz knows good and well that economic fallout from a Russian war in Ukraine will end his government. Macron knows that a new non-Scholz-led German government will therefore end any chance of being able to operate for a while without Darth Merz on the other side of the Rhine. We are in a very uniquely transitionary 18 months here. And there is a marked shift going on during the past two days in German media. Deutsche Welle, which is of course the German public broadcaster and is closely aligned with the federal government’s viewpoints, ran the following segment last night. It is a remarkably frank and fascinating interview. It is in English, but they translated the entire interview on the German DW channel. It a 15 minute interview with former deputy director of the USMC War College/former Colin Powell Chief of Staff, Lawrence Wilkerson, and the presenter gets into what is going on in the US. It is not portrayed by Wilkinson in a positive light. They discuss a lot of things that to date have been associated with Russian propaganda. They go in depth with Wilkerson where he says our current involvement in Ukraine is "insane", he talks about how foolish NATO expansion was in the first place and he says it needs to stop, they go into interests in Washington who want to see wars happen, they mention by name Lockheed Martin/Boeing/Raytheon/Northup Grumman etc. as potential beneficiaries by name (even referring to them as oligarchs), they talk about the idea that the US is overextended with Article 5 obligations, and they talk about how the legacy of Iraq II is the erosion of European trust in the US Intel Community. This isn't RT. This is the Deutsche Welle in prime time. Now, they have other pieces that are much more trans-atlanticist, but the point being the debate is now opening up to include ideas that were to date deemed as somewhat taboo, and that is no accident.
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And Boris is just falling apart, which gives Macron even more space. Boris literally had to cancel a scheduled phone call with Putin on Monday because he was stuck making a statement to Parliament the UK’s current domestic shitshow, where he is teetering on the verge of a confidence vote due to his regular partying during Covid restrictions. The investigative report came back on Monday basically saying they was a culture of drinking at Downing Street in total violation of protocols in place at the time, so he had to go and try to spin his way out of the mess. So he makes time to fly to Ukraine for a photo op and to announce some new UK-Poland-Ukraine security alliance, and then tries to reschedule for Tuesday afternoon, and the Kremlin tells them to fuck off and wait until Wednesday. It is a total PR clusterfuck. So what happens is that many in an already skeptical Western Europe look to this completely disheveled trainwreck leader of a once great EU power who is flailing both on their island and then over in Ukraine and they look to Macron and say, “Meh. At least you aren’t Boris”.
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And just to clarify...there is no circumstance where the French would openly cut a deal without Washington, but what I am referring to is a situation where Berlin and Paris essentially find a way forward on the topic of Ukraine itself (not the larger issue of European security apparatus) and drag the US into a situation where there is immense pressure to go along with it to avoid the risk of a public and destructive discourse within the alliance, a la Iraq War II.
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While it may be going largely unnoticed in a lot of the US media, the French might be making some progress with the Russians on the narrow scope of Ukraine itself, while at the same time flexing some diplomatic muscle with the local citizenry in Western Europe and in France. This afternoon’s phone call will be the third time in a week that Putin and Macron have spoken via video conference…once on Friday, again on Monday afternoon, and now again today. And the latest is that Macron may make a visit to Moscow to meet directly with Putin - a visit which may also include Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron has also had regular calls to Zelensky, apparently in an attempt to continue reviving the Normandy Format under which Minsk II was negotiated, and there is another one scheduled for after Macron meets with Putin today. https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/macron-to-discuss-ukraine-crisis-with-biden-and-putin-in-separate-calls It is of course too early to tell if there is any substance there, but the tone of the readouts from the Russian Foreign Ministry have been very cordial to the French, as has been the case the other way around, and this is doing nothing but helping Macron domestically. Of course, much of this is part of Putin’s efforts to divide allies and nothing does that better than playing to the Gaullist streak in Macron and in the French electorate at large. But it is starting to appear that there actually may be serious discussions going on and IMO the Germans and French are leaning very heavily on Zelensky to agree to certain elements of Minsk II as a foundation for some type of resolution on the topic of the Donbass. We will see in the next few days whether that bears fruit. Zelensky will face extremely strong headwinds domestically if he tries to move towards a Minsk II rehash, as it has never been popular in Ukraine, but the Germans and French would absolutely love to see this gain traction, as it will remove a lot of the pressure to join with the US on measures that they do not want to see implemented, and I would not put it past Berlin and Paris to start to use their own sticks and carrots with Zelensky. Particularly as there appears to be some type of disconnect between Zelensky and the US. If Macron comes out of this ordeal with the perception that he was a leader who helped avoid an escalatory cycle between Moscow and Washington (whether he actually did or not), he will cruise to re-election in April. Valerie Pecresse, his most viable competition, who comes from the center right Republicans, is tanking at the moment and it is almost assured that the election is going to be fought between Macron and the far right Marine Le Pen. Again. Le Pen has already been on record in support of detente with Russia, as that is the position of the French far right base, and, as such, foreign policy will be a huge topic taken off the table for Macron. And while it is easy to scoff at the idea of the French actually making any headway here, this is a very big deal for Macron and he is certainly incentivized to do something. The French, along with German acquiescence, could play a role here diplomatically ...local media still reports on how enraged Macron remains over AUKUS and cutting a deal with Russia whereby the Americans were excluded would be quite some payback - and more importantly for France, would accomplish an objective of demonstrating their ability to lead European Foreign Policy without Washington's involvement. The Germans are taking a lot of the flack in the international press for refusing to play nice, but the French can by no means be said to be aligned with Washington on this ordeal. There is a growing murmur here that Scholz and Macron are gearing up to pursue an independent track along with the Italians (PM Draghi also met directly with Putin this week) and I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on any momentum there over the next few days.
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