Shady Ray

Deputy prime minister raises prospect of closing Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany, and says rejecting Russian oil would be ‘catastrophic’ for world https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/russia-threatens-europes-gas-supplies-as-west-mulls-oil-import-ban-over-ukraine-invasion "Germany relies on Russia for more than half of its gas and coal supplies and more than a third of its oil. To compensate for lost Russian gas, the country would need deliveries from the world’s entire 600-vessel fleet of liquefied natural gas tankers, business lobby DIHK estimates." https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/germany-signals-opposition-to-cutting-essential-russian-energy On a completely unrelated note, any of y'all know how to best prepare yearling Golden Retriever on a Weber Smokey Mountain? Type of smoke flavor would likely be treated furniture scraps, old amazon delivery boxes and dried leaves...just not sure whether to use butcher paper or foil. Asking for a friend...

Y'all kick ass. Thanks a lot for the info. I feel so much better now. This has been stressing me out a bit. Plan is to do nothing more than site sailing during the day, so the keel boat course would probably be enough, but I am going to go ahead and take the next step up as y'all recommended. It won't hurt. I just checked and they offer both courses out there. I made a promise to myself when 2022 came that I would slow down at work, start taking more time for myself and pick up a true hobby that would let me check out from the grind a bit more. I am pretty well-set in my job and I am content to stay here until I retire in 20 years or so, but I need to start moving in a more balanced direction or I am going to keel over dead by 45. I was thinking a few rounds of golf per month or some nice mountain hikes...but not a fucking boat. But it was my father-in-laws, who even by German standards is insanely anal and he has kept it in great shape. He is late 70s now and just can't do it anymore. We were watching a soccer match last week with the in-laws. When halftime came he said that he wanted to get rid of it and had a call from a guy at the Marina wanting to buy it and they were discussing price. His routine has always been: Pay the one marina on the lake to take it out at the end of the season in September, and then haul it to the foothills of the Alps to a huge barn owned by a nice Bavarian farmer, store it there for the winter, bring it back down in early May, have the marina put it back in, and sail all summer. Rinse, repeat since 1974...a few years later my wife came along and she essentially grew up swimming and sailing from that buoy. But the entire set up is awesome and can't be replicated. The marina is packed to capacity with typical Munich types, so getting a place there is a huge pain and would take years. The waiting list on getting a buoy lease at the moment is 17 years long as per the Bavarian state website. Since it is one of the 250 owned by the state, the annual lease fee is just $300. The private ones are thousands annually. The access to the mooring buoy would typically require one to put in a dinghy at the marina, and then row along the shore for quite a ways until you reach the buoys. But the in-laws have a long-standing relationship with the private landowner who owns the lake front property right in front in which they get access to walk through his land, and use of his storage shed for their dinghy and paddles and supplies, in exchange for an annual payment of a nice bottle of Pear Schnapps and a late-fall grilling session at his bier bench table where they bring the meat and they all socialize for a while. The storage at the farmer's (huge) building is $250 euros per season, and is again based on a long-standing personal relationship that I could never replicate on my own. In short, it is a bunch of older, OG Bavarians who have been doing this shit with each other based on generational relationships and not for monetary gain. Just a little booze money for the spare space in the barn or the use of the shed and access. When he told me he was selling it my heart sank. I rarely go out there, as they go during the weekdays and I work a lot, but the idea of it always being there was comforting. But then I heard my wife's voice whisper, "Oh, papa. Bitte nicht." and I looked over and saw her eyes welled up. We are childless and she is struggling with that inevitability right now, and this was just too much for her. I knew at that moment that I was absolutely and completely fucked and sure enough, seven days later I had bought the damned thing. But what felt like obligation is now a lot of excitement and I am ready for it to get warm. Anyway, probably a bit more info than was warranted, but there's a lot going on at the moment and you anonymous internet strangers got to hear it. So that said, I do have him around to help me understand the maintenance/basics and it will keep it in the family, and my wife is completely in to pick it up with me. I almost feel like this was supposed to happen and now I am both feet in. Anyway, here's the lake, Starnbergersee about 20 minutes south of Munich: You can see the marina here and where the boats are in the bottom right is where the buoys are located if the photo would pan out just a touch:

I think you may have misinterpreted both of my posts... I don't think the JCPOA is a backwards step whatsoever. I am a huge supporter of it, as a matter of fact. But my post didn't even mention my own beliefs on it. But for the record, I think it was a terrible idea to do kill the thing in the first place and I hope the administration can get back into ASAP. And I never said it was a backward step. My post was that Russia's geopolitical calculation had changed re the JCPOA and that Israel was not for it, which is explicitly what they said, so that was likely driving Bennett's urgent involvement in making the rushed trip to Moscow. And as though to confirm my position that Russia now had an incentive to gunk up the wheels and was now doing that exact thing, Iran came out today and said the same thing: "Vienna participants act and react based on [their own] interests and it's understandable," Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said in a tweet Monday. "Our interactions with 4+1 are also solely driven by our people's interests. Thus, we're assessing new elements that bear on the negotiations and will accordingly seek creative ways to expedite a solution," he added. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202203078818 https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-obstructs-iran-nuclear-deal-as-the-kremlin-frets-over-oil-income/ Re China...I agree with you. They are not natural allies whatsoever. And you are exactly correct...Russia has no desire to be subservient to China. But they have totally fucked themselves into having that as one of their only viable options though, and China has too many incentives to allow their economy to completely collapse. But they certainly will not prosper even to the pathetic degree that they were slogging by prior to the war. My point in quoting Münchau is that their value to a hungry, vulture like China is going to make Russia's dependence on China even deeper.

From today's Welt: "Expensive Energy" European Gas Price in Euro per Megawat-Hour / Electricity Price in Euro per Megawatt-Hour =============== Agricultural Prices Wheat Price in USD per Bushel / Potash Fertilizer in Euros per Ton ==================== Price Explosion of Materials of the Earth in 2022 in Percent European Gas Wheat Brent Crude Palladium Soybeans Aluminum Nickel Corn Pork Lumber Tin Platinum

I have mentioned Wolfgang Münchau upthread, but he is one of the best commentators out there when it comes to European politics and economics. Used to be editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland, currently weekly syndicated columnist in Handelsblatt, El Pais and Corriere della Sera...dude has been a serious EU economics analyst for over 30 years now. Anyway, an important bit from his column today that is running counter to what much of the Twitteratti echo chamber in the US is rambling on about: China will bail out Russia ... "The whole idea of economic sanctions is premised on the notion of western monopolies and monopsonies. This was the world of a bygone age. The only real monopolies we see emerging are China’s and Russia’s hold on important raw materials, which the west needs to import. Western-dominated financial infrastructure, like the Swift payment communications system, are losing their monopoly status. China and Russia have built their own infrastructure. And when Visa, Mastercard and American Express stopped business in Russia over the weekend, Russia switched to a Chinese system. "Don’t delude yourself with statistics from economists who tell you that the Russian economy is the size of Belgium and the Netherlands. You get to this number when you translate Russia’s rouble GDP into euros based on the rouble’s currently devalued exchange rate. This completely underestimates the economic scale of Russia. For China, this is a big opportunity. '"The situation reminds us of an old marketing story: two western shoe companies are sending sales to a remote underdeveloped country. One responds: there is no market. Nobody wears shoes. The other says: There is a huge market. Nobody wears shoes. A Russia subject to western sanction is a huge market for China, because nobody there has dollars, visa cards and iPhones. Russia is a culturally and scientifically advanced country with a population of 144m, the size of Germany and France combined. If you compare Russia to the Netherlands and Belgium, you are a shoe salesman of the first kind." Full thing spoilered below: Couple that with the position of China's FM Wang Yi just now: "No matter how treacherous the international storm is, China and Russia will maintain their strategic determination and promote the comprehensive cooperative partnership in the new era." Ol' Wang knows the score...this entire ordeal is going to end up being a bonanza for China. And that means that this pressure to end this thing quickly is going to fade...I think we are definitely settling in for a protracted conflict. China has so much to gain from this that they are going to make sure that Russia doesn't collapse while they collect a ton of goodies.

Surly Armada, short question from an idiot novice. I have recently come into ownership of an Ott Yacht International 806. It is exactly the model below and it is immaculately maintained. And I mean immaculate. Along with the boat, I have 27 years remaining on a 30-year lease on a mooring buoy owned by the Bavarian Government on a very nice lake outside of Munich. These leases are virtually impossible to secure anymore, so it is a really, really unique opportunity for me to take advantage of. But there is a minor problem that stands in my way of enjoying this vessel...I have no idea how to sail. And i don't know fuck all about what it takes to learn to sail. So my question for you learned men of Boats-N-Hoes: Is it possible for me to learn on this boat, or do I need to start off with a smaller, basic sailboat while I put this one away for a couple of years while I build up my skills? Or could this work for a beginner? I am a complete novice and don't want to bite off more than I can chew here. So, outside of getting a cool forearm tattoo and banging prostitutes in various ports of call, any ideas how best to become a sailor of this fine vessel? https://www.ott-yacht.de/yacht_international806_start_en.html

Breaking on German news at the moment: https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/wirtschaft/preise-steigen-um-60-prozent-erdgas-beben-in-europa-79375272.bild.html We are going to be so fucked.

Story about some prior drills re this shit from a couple years/months back: https://www.wired.com/story/russia-internet-control-disconnect-censorship/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-disconnected-global-internet-tests-rbc-daily-2021-07-22/

Just posting this one for reference, as it actually seems to lie somewhere in between the overly simplistic "broad swathe" maps and the one that just shows the roads that the Russians has secured as being under Russian control. And this one shows the encirclement strategy attempts a bit clearer. This is the middle bowl of Russo-Ukrainian War Map porridge, IMO.

In a modern era where we have progressed past designated gender roles, do statements from a guy who describes himself "a free spirit" warrant the same amount of skepticism as would a woman with the same self-designation? Because I’ve never met a dude that described himself as a “free spirt”, but as an Austinite I have known plenty of women (biblically and platonically) of that sort. Good weed, commitment-free sex, and top-shelf hummus? Yes. Inside knowledge of state secrets about Russian coup attempts? Ehhhhhhhhhh, undecided.

IMO, the minimum requirement for putting stock in a particular outlet should be whether they post/print stories that would constitute good and bad news for each respective side...particularly in situations like this one, where there is plenty of good/bad news for each side to go around. But there are certain outlets that are regularly posted and quoted as reliable by blue checks on social media that literally post nothing but good news for the Ukrainian side. Which to some degree, I understand is important to keep up spirits for an underdog like Ukraine, but it shouldn't be treated as reliable news and it does a disservice to those who rely on media coverage for their understanding of the events on the ground. And for a bunch of jerk-offs on a college football board I guess it isn't a big deal, but the degree that those blue check mark journos that amplify some of these clearly biased outlets as fact gets annoying, as it requires a ton of sifting through to get an accurate picture. I have essentially just switched over to German language media since the desire for Twitter peer-group-acceptance by German reporters is essentially zero. Twitter-impact just isn't something that is that big of a deal here...probably because half the individual words in the fucking language encroach on the 280 character limit in the first place. Both professionally and personally, I trust: Govt Twitter Accts/Websites to hear what a government wants to say openly, access-based "senior govt sources say" legacy media to find out what a particular Govt wants to leak anonymously, proven and reliable "direct" Twitter sources to get real-time facts on the ground. And even Surly to learn shit about shit that I don't know. I mean hell, this thread alone you can see military dudes explaining military shit, humanitarian aid professionals explaining humanitarian missions, country experts, and the muthafuckin' Notorious NERC Mafia talk about SCADA systems. And then do my best to figure out what is going on myself. Sometimes I am right, sometimes I am wrong, but I trust that way more than I do most of the shit I see on Twitter.

I mean, this tweet is six hours old, which is apparently the same as the publication time of the NBC article, but at least as of that time the Polish Government doesn't seem to agree.

Chinese UnionPay and Sberbank and Alfa Bank-issued MIR Cards joining forces. I don't know about the US, but UnionPay is accepted almost everywhere in Germany, but MIR generally isn't. Well, until now, I guess. From the Russians: Sberbank working to issue MIR, China's UnionPay co-badged payment cards after Visa, MasterCard announce exit from Russia https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75735/ Russia has been pushing country-by-country to accept MIR, with some success, but this will be a huge step forward, as UnionPay is accepted all over the place. They have been making noise about doing this for years, but as is the case in so many other areas, these sanctions are accelerating what used to be slow, gradual realignments. Mastercard and Visa bolt so that Chinese/Russian alternatives can link up and expand. No, this is not some massive paradigm change and will take time to implement, but I think this is going to be one of many steps where we see parallel and alternative financial systems emerge.

I really think the Israel tie-in is worth watching here, because they are not coming into this due to altruistic concerns over Ukraine itself. They clearly do not like the speed and direction that the JCPOA renegotiation is moving and there are multiple reports out of Israel saying that they feel betrayed by the US and are concerned that they have lost all influence over the JCPOA negotiations in Vienna. And those negotiations are a cunt hair away from wrapping up. Considerations in no particular order, and without deep analysis, but rather just a random vomiting of thoughts: - The West now has a huge incentive to get the JCPOA situation sorted so that an additional 1.5mm bbd can hit the global markets. So essentially, Israel is left somewhat isolated now on an issue that many in their leadership see as critical to Israeli national security. - Russia has massive influence throughout the ME, not only with Iran, but also with plenty of other actors that impact Israeli security and power. - The White House apparently gave a grudging go-ahead for Bennett's trip to Moscow, but was not thrilled about it. So Israel is most likely acting in its own interest here, not as an extension of American influence - For all the mutual influence that Israel and the US share over each others domestic politics, keeping fuel costs in Peoria from hitting 6-7-8 bucks per gallon is way more important to a self-centered politician in DC than ensuring Israel’s security. - Israel's security is more important to Bennett than that same congressman's electoral chances in Peoria - Iran is heavily dependent on trade with Russia and Russia have tens of billions of dollars in arms deals in place with Iran at the moment. In fact, before this thing started heating up, Iran was set up on Russia’s SPFS, the alternative to SWIFT, so Russia is an important economic/security lifeline to them and the impact of sanctions on that is yet to fully be understood - Iran depends on Russia for the influence that they have with Damascus, as Syrian security depends on Russian involvement, but Russia does not depend on Iran to influence Assad and Assad can survive without Iran. - Reducing/controlling Iranian influence in Damascus is critical to Israel's sense of security. - Russian influence over Damascus is not particularly objectionable to Israel, and to some degree is beneficial so long as it is used to leash Iran instead of enable it. - The Gulf Arabs have all kinds of different angles and interests here, ranging from security to energy plays to domestic concerns...too many to even get into. - Not even getting into the Turkish angle, as that would take pages. The circular/criss-crossing/clusterfuckerific interconnectivity between all of these players is much more critical to Israel, Iran, Syria, the Gulf States, and to some degree Turkey than it is to the US or Russia. But the amount of relief afforded to the global economy - including the US to a significant degree - from the inevitable blowback of Russia being isolated from global commerce is most easily mitigated by moves from the Middle East…by Iran and by players both for and against Iran. The fact that Bennett took off - on Shabbat nonetheless - to Moscow for a three hour plus meeting with Vlad and then stopped off in Berlin unannounced to the public to meet with Scholz indicates that something serious is being discussed there. And that doesn’t mean it is something good for the US or bad for the US, notwithstanding the fact that it is one of American’s closes allies in the middle of it. No one knows anything other than it surely is significant. In an incredible and almost instantaneous 180 degree switch in strategic positioning, Russia would now benefit by blowing up the JCPOA IF it could leverage its willingness to gum up the works for relief elsewhere. Killing the JCPOA would be huge for Israel. And Israel can absolutely influence things relating to Russian market access and sanctions “loopholery”. But Russia’s close ally Iran would be livid over Russia enabling the second death of JCPOA at this late stage. And on and on it goes, ally by ally, enemy by enemy, relationship by relationship. I am not even going to try to predict all the ways this could unfold. There is no way anyone outside of highly placed actors can truly know what is going on, but I think we can all rest assured that it is very, very complex and that every player is now playing for their own self interests. And those self-interests are for the first time in recent memory not necessarily consistent with traditional post-Cold War alliance structures. But perhaps one takeaway that we have learned from this past two days is that Naftali Bennett does, in fact, roll on Shabbos.

Yes. This is a great idea, Anders. Now hear me out, guys: what we do is to funnel in advanced, modern lethal weaponry to the fighters operating in Idlib. Ya' see, since these fine people dislike Russia, they are therefore by definition good, peaceful democratic folks who have peace at the forefront of their minds. Thennnnn...once Russia is defeated, they will lay down their arms and will certainly create a forward-thinking society of tolerance, in which people of all colors and creeds will then come together and contribute to the betterment of global humanity as a whole, with particular attention paid to lifting up their young women in a respectful, progressive manner. But most importantly, war and conflict there will be over and those people will certainly not turn those weapons upon each other and no innocent civilians will be brutalized or subjugated. There is zero chance of that happening whatsoever. I mean, we have done this this before and I don't think anyone could say that there was any blowback whatsoever from arming those fine fellows, outside of that little hiccup in Afghanistan. Jesus, some of these manichean hot takes on Twitter are fucking ridiculous. Can we just stick to supporting Ukraine and let the fucking jihadis and Russians kill each other in Syria and not giving The Artist Formerly Known as Al-Qaeda advanced fucking weaponry. Good God.

I think the sentiment is that vaporization is better than dying over the course of a week or two from radiation poisoning. I saw that shit on HBO's Cherynobyl...give me that vaporization all day errrrrrday over that radiation poisoning shit.

Yeah. And there have been some pretty accusatory statements leaked about this which aren't sitting well here at the moment. And you bring up Deutschland, but there is something going on at the moment wrt to this. Over the past two or three days there seems to be a slight (but significant) recalibration going on within German politics. Not a u-turn from last weekend’s announcements re NS2 and weapons by any means, but more like a recognition that the continuing rush towards more sanctions and measures against Russia might need to be a bit more thoughtful and not quite as “causally disconnected” as it has been (the "cat competition" and the Uni of Milan cancelling a course on Dostoyevsky - which was rescinded - was brought up as being particularly regarded on the news circuit). It’s almost as if the coalition leadership is waking up after a boozy night and recognizing that they need to tap the brakes a bit out of fear that public sentiment in certain corners of the establishment are starting to careen out of control. For example, one of the directors at the LMU Medical School (University of Munich Med School) - one of the best in the country - sent an email to the patient referral network saying that Russians aren’t allowed to be treated at clinics under her supervision anymore. This got major press and sparked a furious backlash, so the head of the med school had to come out and make a formal announcement apologizing and clearing things up. Scholz also went on Maybrit Illner last night, which is the biggest political talk show in Germany, and defended the position of the government in supporting Ukraine with weapons and sanctions on Russia, but explicitly said that they won’t be getting into NATO anytime soon and that NATO won’t be getting involved in Ukraine in any way. He also (diplomatically) positioned himself against Zelensky’s complaints against the West from yesterday, which is significant in the sense that it marks the first time since the invasion started where there was clear daylight between the German Govt and Zelensky. He also said that there won’t be expenditure cuts to pay for the $100B Bundeswehr increase, which immediately caught the eye of the opposition CDU, which insisted on budget cuts as part of the deal. So now that is starting to become a topic of debate within the confines of German domestic politics.

 There was also top story in Welt that essentially said, “Germany’s politics are unhealthy in the sense that Germany always tends to find itself rushing headlong into 180 degree swings in the opposite direction of established policies after critical events such as Fukushima, Syrian Refugees, and now Ukraine…this time we need keep from allowing ourselves to blindly get pulled in too far to the other direction like we did with abandoning nuclear energy and the 2015 open door refugee crisis.” Ukraine aside, this is true re German politics. The article closed with this: "Germany should not be intoxicated by its solidarity with Ukraine. Instead, it should regard this form of intervention in the war on the side of democracy against dictatorship as a normal step. And then rationally continue on the path. But with open eyes and a clear compass, and, if necessary, take the right course correction. And never again, in stubborn overconfidence, run in the wrong direction until a full stop and a turnaround again becomes necessary.” They also ran some poll numbers that showed that over 70% of German people are now scared that we are going to be dragged into conflict over there and essentially are concerned the govt is blindly rushing into this whole hog. Scholz has gained a couple of points this week on the basis of being a “decisive leader”, which seems to come at the expense of Annalena, who is suffering with the focus on energy policy, but by Scholz’s actions I think he recognizes that things are about to get really, really difficult (I filled up this morning at $2.30 USD per liter, which is up from $1.52 USD per liter earlier this month)...so what's that...over $8 USD per gallon. No bueno. Doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but there is a shift over the past week back to Germany’s discomfort with getting too far down this road. CDU just came out as I was writing this and said, 'yeah, we support what we have done so far, but we aren't going to become a war party." Momentum dying out of politicla self preservation.

Ukrayinska Pravda reporting that one of the Ukrainian negotiators has been shot for treason. Haven't seen it on the English version of their site, The SBU shot a Ukrainian negotiator in Gomel during detention - sources During the detention of the SBU, Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation in Gomel, shot dead. He was suspected of high treason. Source: Senior interlocutors in the power bloc and political circles Direct speech: "He's already dead." Details: According to interlocutors in political circles, the Security Service had clear data of Kireev's high treason, including telephone conversations. https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/5/7328458/ Verified Bellingcat dude saying it is true:

"Welcome to Snyder: If Texas was Ukraine, You'd be in Kiev" is a pretty good motto for that fair and beatiful town.

This is a standard Russian tactic. Y'all remember what they did in Aleppo? Well, this 👇was just before that 👆 https://www.france24.com/en/20160728-russia-announces-humanitarian-corridors-syria-besieged-aleppo Edit: Sorry, didn't see that @956 Worldwide had already correctly described this.

China pulls Premier League TV coverage over shows of solidarity with Ukraine League plans gestures of support this weekend IQIYI Sports informs league it will not broadcast games https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/mar/04/china-pulls-premier-league-tv-coverage-over-shows-of-solidarity-with-ukraine

Yep. China already making that move. Russia and China already agreed on Power of Siberia 2 before the war kicked off, but they have already said they are going to expedite now. 50 billion cubic meters per year. Exact same amount as NS2 would have been. Gazprom is now looking to further extend its relationship with China by building the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, also called Soyuz Vostok. In a press release, the company said that its Chairman Alexey Miller had recently met the Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia, Sainbuyan Amarsaikhan to discuss the implementation of the pipeline through Mongolia. During the meeting, a design and survey work contract was signed for the construction of the pipeline that involves Mongolian companies to carry out land and archaeological surveys and assess the impact of the project on the environment, the press release said. Last month, the feasibility report of the project was approved according to which the pipeline would see a 598-mile stretch run through Mongolian territory. The diameter of the pipes used would be 1.42 meters in diameter, or about 56 inches, with five compressor stations to be installed along the route to enable 50 billion cubic meters or 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas to be sent to China. If the deal with China goes through, Russia will also build an interconnector between its west and east-bound pipelines paving the way to redirect the gas, that is currently being supplied to Europe, towards China, thereby reducing its dependence on European imports. "Work on the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline project is actively and successfully progressing. A month ago, the results of the feasibility study were approved, and today a design contract has been signed. This means that the project has moved to the practical stage," said Alexey Miller in the press release. https://interestingengineering.com/russia-gas-pipeline-to-china And per today's HK media outlet, South China Morning Post, US saying "China is going to pay" if they help Russia circumvent sanctions: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3169181/beijing-will-pay-if-it-helps-russia-evade-sanctions-us-state-department

Mr. McAdams will apparently have the chance to speak.