Shady Ray

Iron Curtain Part Deux, indeed: Oh dear...

Figure we are at a good point to at least take a moment to view what type of progress the Russians have made since this whole thing started. At least to me, it feels like with all the isolated videos/images/memes/bodycounts from different media outlets and governments, it is tough to get a real handle on the scope/speed of territorial gains and advancements the Russians have made. Going strictly from the Twitters, it would seem like the Russians are completely fucked at every turn and that everything is coming up roses for the Ukrainians. But is that because we just expected them to be immediately overwhelmed, so the indisputable fact that they are indeed putting up a much stronger resistance skewing our views? Prolly so, to some degree. So for the sake of consistency, here are maps from every day of the war as generated by Institute for the Study of War (which given its Neocon ties to the Kagans, can't be accused of being Russian sympathetic), which releases an updated one every day at 3:00 PM EST. Should serve as at least a baseline to gauge the situation on the ground. And I am also including at the end one of the only maps I have found that shows Ukrainian positions around the Donbass. I couldn't find any particularly good maps of those positions outside of one that came from a Russian twitter account, so grain of salt and all that jive. Since the most recent map release on March 3rd, we know that there is heavy fighting around Zaporizhia, so they'll certainly move up to the important city of Dnipro next and try to meet up with the Kharkiv Krew in coming days/weeks in order to Kesselschlacht the eastern UA units. #ArmchairGeneralUsingMilitaryTermsILearnedFromSurly Starting from most recent: Edited to say I don't know why I put them starting most recent...spatial intelligence/data display is not my strong suit. But too lazy to fix.

The "Tsar Bomba" dropped in 78701 would leave those in fucking Salado with thermal radiation burns....sheeeeeesh.

Essentially even the smallest nuke dropped on the center of Munich will leave me vaporized, so I guess I will miss the "fallout" of the global nuclear holocaust. Here you can check your specific location and choose the type of nuke...fun for the whole family! https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

The best kind of underworld.

I really wish he would have dropped a, "Meh...You all look the same to me" on 'em...

As the world understandably tunes in on the minutiae that plays out over twitter and on maps of Ukraine on a mile-by-mile basis, there are some really scary things that have now come into view on the horizon. One of the big issues that is going to be interesting (and scary as fuck) to watch play out is what the impact on de-dollarization policies around the world are. Russia simply has too many valuable and critical resources that it exports to be shut out of global markets entirely. From China to India to Pakistan to countries all throughout the Global South, there are going to be countries that will not go into embargo mode with Russia the way many did with Iran, and the way those transactions are carried out in the future is going to be very different than the way that they have been carried out to date. Additionally, if you are China with your significant holdings of USD, you now see what can - in a worst case scenario - occur when you get cross with the US. The big bomb of SWIFT has actually turned out not to be the maximalist measure that everyone thought it might be…the central bank sanctioning of a G20 economy is. Obviously, the calculation with China is very different as they truly do have our balls in a vise to a much greater extent than the Russians do, but I think it is naive to think they aren’t going to see this situation - particularly wrt the sanction on the Russian Central Bank - and not start to implement very different policies wrt to their de-dollarization and yuan policies. They have a ton of exposure there and they are way too smart and methodical to not see how this can potentially impact them wrt Taiwan and other possible conflicts in their neck of the woods. This event truly is the moment when the post-Cold War unipolar world takes a fundamental shift and I don't think anyone at this stage can truly claim to know what the long term impact to global trade is going to be. Russia is now essentially removed from European/Western trade outside of core, fundamental goods like raw materials and energy. But as a result of that, the inertia of geopolitics and geoeconomics can send this in God knows how many directions. And that is scary is fuck for a system that is so deeply vested in the dollar as the unquestioned unit of global trade.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/mar/02/chelsea-swiss-billionaire-hansjorg-wyss-says-offered-chance-buy-club-roman-abramovich I always hated Chelsea under Abramovich, but if he sells....well, I am still going to hate them.

How I want to be when I read this... How I really am...

Watch out world. A bunch of young, less-than-militarily-inclined German men could be forced to swap out their skinny jeans, pointy shoes and black Hugo Boss turtlenecks for, ehhhh, another one of Hugo Boss' best selling outfits (yeah yeah...I know that Boss doesn't make Bundeswehr unis anymore, but its legacy remains). https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-raises-spectre-of-conscription-in-germany

Anything beyond a perfunctory analysis of the geographic movement here is over my head, but you military bros might get some info out of it. Obviously, I can't verify the accuracy of it, but it comes from a dude who seems to have some cred in the OSINT crowd. As of Feb 28th Status as of this AM:

French media now confirming this, as well. This is a big one, as control of Kherson is critical to Russia's apparent plans in the southern front. It gives them control of the Dnieper estuary at the Black Sea and positioning for continued movement towards Odesa. Given that Mariupol is now surrounded - and that IMO Mariupol will be the place where the Russians go absolutely ape given that it is defended by Azov and has huge propaganda value given its history in the 2015 conflict - this shows that for all the difficulties that the Russians are having in the north, they are fighting much more effectively in the south. Ukraine's future Black Sea access is starting to look very tenuous.

Germany not capable of maintaining any semblance of sanity for more than 24 hours. Looks like Scholz got way out over his skis in announcing the Bundeswehr increase and he is now starting to pay for it in the press. Rank-and-file in both the Greens and his own SPD are livid, including the leader of the Young Socialists. This coaltion is fucked...might not be now, might not be tomorrow...but sooner rather than later, its done. Deutschland gonna Deutschland. No wonder, the members of the Greens, like the citizens throughout the country, had only heard at this moment about the amount of the planned blessing of money for the armed forces. According to WELT information, even Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (both Greens) only learned about the details of the special fund during the Chancellor speech in plenary. Scholz had only agreed with Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner. In the SPD and the Greens, several MEPs now feel taken by surprise. We are talking about a proposal that is not rational and also not serious. Which is not guided by foreign policy requirements and the needs of the Bundeswehr. Others are fearing that the prices of armaments will be massively increased if such spending is announced not over a long period of time, but only for one year. In short: There is resistance to the Scholz plan - even within his own party. ... Previously, MEP and Juso (Young SPD) leader Jessica Rosenthal had announced that she would not support Chancellor Scholz's plans. "There is no point in sinking another billions of euros into a black hole," she told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. She believes that the funds for the Bundeswehr have so far been used ineffectively. There is also displeasure among other SPD members. Full article for those who care...

I think Serbia's candidacy is basically dead anyway. No one really thinks they are coming in, and a big percentage of Serbs don't even want to. Hungary is currenty on the chopping block wrt cohesion funds to be blocked due to their own internal issues, so that wouldn't be a tough sell for most people. They have a lot of enemies in Brussels at the moment.

Man, I feel you. This one hit me hard when I saw it. Anyone who has lived in Russia and is pro-western felt a gut punch hearing that. 'Twas an institution.

Yeah, this is a very, very symbolic gesture that has actually already kinda quietly ruffled some feathers behind the scenes. The process for EU accession is extremely cumbersome and there have already been statements here in Germany by government reps that while there is solidarity with Ukraine, EU accession will follow standard EU membership process - which means it would likely be years away. Turkey, which has been waiting for fucking evvvvver on their membership to move forward already said today, “So, when someone goes to war with us, do we finally get in?” Allowing Ukraine to essentially get automatic admission - and therefore access to all the goodies that Brussels offers - would not be a popular move once things settle down. At the moment, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey are all in various stages of negotiating the various 35 “chapters” required for EU membership, which are basicaly grouped into chunks. Some candiates are doing a better job than others…and some are more motivated than others to move forward. Some of the Chapters are fairly mundane, but others are very difficult to clear. Monetary policy, corruption controls, judicial/legal systems, procurement, company law, IP protection system, etc. Ukraine has some pretty deep issues that have nothing to do with this conflict that they will need to clear up before they are even to the Chapter Negotiating phase, so this is a lot of EU grandstanding that would meet real opposition behind closed doors with a lot of member states. Here is the average Average is almost 5 years, but that average is somewhat misleading due to short timelines of some really easy candidates like Austria, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, UK, etc.

Off the top of my head, China can agree to integrate Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages with its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System to facilitate easier payments to Russia, which will help to minimize the impact to some degree to the SWIFT sanctions. It can also exert massive amounts of pressure on countries across the Global South and Asia who depend on trade relations with China to use the system, as well. It would be de-dollarization on speed, of course, which China would need to manage in accordance with its own strategic goals. It can aggressively utilize its unparalleled access to raw materials and manufacturing to eliminate some of the fallout of Russia being cut off from much of the world's technology markets. It can directly help Russia prop up the Ruble, as it has done in the past, as recently as 2014. It can lend in massive amounts. It can exert a ton of pressure on a variety of state actors to stay out of the sanctions game, which it has an enormous capacity to do. I can go on and on. It doesn't mean they WILL do these things...but they can. And it again goes to the fine line that I originally discussed of allowing Russia to weaken as much as possible without killing the Golden Goose that can provide incredible amounts of raw materials and energy at an easy, discounted price.

Right now, the likely scenarios are essentially none. However, 6, 8, 12, 24 months down the road after the fallout of the Russian economy completely melting down is felt, and people are isolated in what has essentially become a pariah state and a global embarassment, you have the climate for a lot of differen results beyond just like-for-like autocratic replacements. A lot can happen to change the mood of a populace during that time and there would be time for a lot of coordination to foment a lot of different movements, pro-democratic and otherwise, both internally and externally. And I am not saying it is likely...I am saying it is absolutely something that China will be monitoring and doing what it can to prevent significant shifts.

Exactly. China needs the weakest Putin possible, so that they can gain as much control as possible over Russia, without him becoming so weak that his autocratic regime falls and is replaced by one that is more liberal in its leanings.

It has nothing to do with expansion of territory into Russia. And it has nothing to do with us being concerned about it, as it doesn't change our calculus in doing whatever we can to secure the most liberal outcome possible that is consistent with our own geopolitical interest. A Putin regime replaced by another autocratic regime is simply extension of status quo for China. It is simply an observational statement relating to China's deep interest in a continued relationship with a friendly and compliant Russia. A significant chunk of China's foreign policy is crafted around the idea of a friendly Russia. In addition to major reliance on cheap and reliable Russian energy, which is only set to significantly increase, the entirety of China's BRI depends on a cooperative, non-adverse regional power wrt to Central Asia and a hypothetically less-friendly successor state in Moscow can completely upend that initiative, given the economic/political influence that Russia has on Central Asia due to things like linguistic, cultural and economic ties. Putin and/or a similarly disposed sucessor regime is critical for that, so they will do everything possible to ensure that any successor regimes are not adverse to that. That's all I am saying. No one said it changes any game. My post was not about any impact on us or anything for us to be concerned about. It was more of an observation on how China will have to play it and how they have to balance the pressing issues of not appearing too deeply complicit in enabling the goings on in Ukraine while also actively ensuring that nothing happens in a potential fallout in Moscow that will act adversely to their own interest.

Close. But I fixed it for you.

Exactly. And any politician saying so should be shamed. The number of talking heads advocating no-fly zones and other forms of direct intervention has been really alarming over the last two days. And that gets certain understandable emotions going in people who are searching for us to "do something"...which is truly an understandable sentiment. But leaders need to be leaders, which fortunately by and large most have been so far, as least as far as I can tell. But for some, the prioritization of Twitter likes over actual cause-and-effect is simply stunning.