Shady Ray

I don't know why you think the German security apparatus is weak: Angela Merkel’s purse stolen while shopping: Report Germany’s iconic ex-chancellor had her purse stolen while shopping in Berlin, according to Bild daily 17:32 February 25, 2022 After over 16 years as one of Europe’s highest-profile leaders, Angela Merkel is learning that life out of public office brings its own set of challenges. While out shopping, Germany’s iconic ex-chancellor had her purse stolen, local media reported on Friday. Merkel was being escorted by her bodyguards while running shopping errands on Thursday, but she still fell victim to one of Berlin’s most common crimes, Bild daily reported. The 67-year-old visited a police station after the theft and filed a complaint, according to the report. There was no word on whether the unidentified thief tried to use the longtime leader’s ID card to impersonate Merkel, one of the world’s most famous faces both in Europe and worldwide. Merkel, who served as German chancellor from Nov. 22, 2005 to Dec. 8, 2021, retired from active politics late last year. https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/angela-merkels-purse-stolen-while-shopping-report-3590197

Don't stress, guys...Germany has shipped those 5000 helmets. #Heroes "If it weren't so sad, you could laugh about it: A good month after Defense Minister Lambrecht promised #Ukraine the delivery of 5000 protective helmets for the #Bundeswehr, the load is now on its way. Handover planned outside UKR."

This whole "calling on the army to overthrow the leadership" shit is, uh, fucking bizarre. I think we really might be dealing with a dude who may have completely lost it. That plus Zhakarova's wild statement re Finland and Sweden is really concerning. We might be on the verge of Führer Bunker 2: Vladimir Boogaloo.

There is a terrible habit of escalating incompetence Western Europe. I can boil this down in one example: We are talking now about how inept and pathetic the Bundeswehr is. Of course, that cannot be attributable to one specific politician, as it has been a succession of weak leaders who have escalated complete incompetents to positions of power in the Defense Ministry due to their own domestic political games (looking right at you, Angie Merkel). However, in the sorry list of shitty heads of the Ministry of Defense, there is one who stands head and shoulders above the rest. She was soooooo bad at the job, and took soooooo much ridicule by the German people (who generally don't give a fuck about the Bundeswehr anyway) that there was no place for Angie to put this woman in the Government when Angie got to the end of her term. Even the military was openly blasting their own Defense Chief. But Angie needed to escalate into the Secretary of Defense role the woman who, at the time, Angie thought would be her heir. A woman named Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. So, in order to make room for this move, Angie had to move this laughingstock out. So she used her power to install her elsewhere. Who was this pathetic Defense Minister... and where was she installed, you might ask?

I doubt this has made the English news before, but it is a fact that the Bundeswehr has to rent helicopters from the ADAC because it doesn't have enough. What is the ADAC, you might ask? The German version of:

Brother, you ain't seein' the half of it. You should have heard one of the political talk shows last night with a guest saying, "We should not worry. In the future we can partly weather this certificate withdrawal of NS2 by just using the full capacity of NS1, which to date we have not done." Edit to clarify: The whole move towards NS2 was to cut off Ukranian transit overhead, as it doesn't really impact supply beyond just cutting the Ukrainians out of the picture...so by saying this, its basically saying "we can weather the storm if the Russians fuck over the Ukrainians by upping NS1, ya see"

Turks have now formally declined Ukraine's request to close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus, which I think was generally expected. Putin can absolutely make life miserable for Erdogan on a variety of levels: Gas supply, different moves within Turkic world that Erdogan gets off on so much, and, of course, in Idlib. And given how aggressive things have escalated to date, I don't think anyone wants shit kicking off in the ME.

Muthafuckin' Surly... teaching the fluent German speaker some German. Pos rep to you, good sir. Full demilitarization is what Vlad was rambling on about a couple of times in his tirades, so perhaps that truly is his real intention. Try to kesselschlacht like no kesselschlachter has ever kesselschlachted before in the East, take over the capital city, and then indeed impose demilitarization on the country. It has all the brute, bullying tendencies that one would expect from him. And Shirley he isn't under the illusion that he's gonna be able to hold this place.

This is obviously a very simplified map showing current status that doesn't properly identify the status of the fighting in the major urban areas in the areas shaded as Russian controlled, but as a military idiot looking at this, a couple of things are starting to become a bit clearer: 1. Looks like that southern front that pushed out of Crimea is heading in both directions, likely intended to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, which would indeed be devastating economically and strategically. 2. The heavy focus on Kharkiv that we are seeing is likely the early stage of an attempted cauldron (can a "cauldron" be considered a "cauldron" if its that large? only you smart dudes know) with the goal of trying to seal off the bulk of the Ukrainian forces in the East. 3. This is much more in line with what most analyst put as the likely maximal approach, with the early strikes yesterday in Galicia in the far west being targeted to air infrastructure in order to prohibit logistics support from the West 4. And if this was covered overnight and I missed it, apologies...the thread was so long that I only skimmed while catching up. This is consistent with the initial analysis that Russia expert (and worthwhile Twitter follow) Michael Kofman put out right at the outset of hostilities: Kofman's twitter:

Multiple reports now of gunfire in the government quarter of Kiev. So Russians moving quickly there if they are correct.

The Maidan live cam is now off

Lulz. Bundeswehr finally admitting what everyone in Germany has long known to be the case. Freezin' cold and without self-defense is no way to go through life, son.

German news just now saying Russia has closed its airspace to all UK planes. That is certainly in retaliation re the AeroFlot sanctions.

The FUCKING AUDACITY of Schröder. Unbelievable. Well, not unbelievable actually, but you know what I mean.

Looks like she just updated...

Ah, ok. Saw the timeline of her posting this five hours ago, which was after the chaos of this morning, and thought, "Jeeez...you italians are ruthless"

Things are obviously moving fast, and this is four hours old and I've only had one eye on the news and one eye on work, but if true, it is the most typical European clusterfuckery possible: Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky: - ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions - ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways - ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods - BEL wants carve-out for diamonds + broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

Definitely a difference. The East is much, much more open to the extreme left and right wing parties, respectively, and both Die Linke and the Alternative für Deutschland are openly pro-Russian outfits and have had big success, relatively speaking, over there. This is a couple of years old, but generally the former East Germany is much, much more anti-American and Pro-Russian. What this will do to that is unknown, of course.

Just a quick take on this, as I will be on calls the rest of the afternoon, but the Germans govt is clearly absolutely stunned. The government has definitely fallen into line with complete support of any sanctions to be taken against Russia, and I think any "Russia-versteher" sentiment has probably been evaporated forever as of today. But...as typical German thinking goes, the government has already shifted the public focus on the soon-to-be-influx of Ukrainian refugees and while everything from the Govenment podiums will be "we will take everyone in this time of crisis", there are already rumbles of "oh great....here we go again." And the Greens have been the ones essentially leading the PR push today, and, well, let's just say they haven't necessarily been confidence-inspiring. Timid...talking about how all can come as the costs to house them is "is just money and we will borrow what we don't have", which is not really the way to do this with Germans. Rather clunky performance so far. The number of up to 5 million potential refugees has been thrown around and that, without a doubt, will quickly cause social issues. I cannot stress how wobbly the coalition has become even before today, and the only thing that will save it is that the opposition CDU wants no part of ruliing during this crisis, as even someone as reassuring to the German people as Mama Merkel would be unable to handle what is coming. So, in short, my take is that the Germans are going to publicly be very much in the corner of the alliance, but there are some definite concerns behind the curtains that this is going to be too much for the government to manage coherently if the refugee flows don't stay largely in Poland. Which they inevitably won't.

Yeah, due to my job I sometimes get so bogged down in the disconnected policy/political analysis that I find myself distracted from the real-world morality of certain things. Times like these bring that ultimate issue back into focus. And yeah...the Central Europeans knew the score for sure. I can't imagine the helplessness that this entire situation unfolding must have felt like.

Ukraine has formally asked Turkey to close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to Russian ships. I can't imagine the Turks would do this given their own energy needs from Russia, and the risk that Russia has the potential to turn up the heat big-time in Syria, and allll the other risks to shit that ties their worlds together, but really interesting things all the way around for those who follow Europe closely. One thing that went largely unnoticed in all the other developments yesterday was that Putin had Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Moscow two days ago to sign a cooperation pact. That was definitely heard loud and clear in Ankara that Putin can and will dabble in other areas of significant interest to Turkey, even those areas where Erdogan likes to think of himself as the Chief of the Turkic world.

Exactly. I don't think I remember one respected analyst contemplating anything West of the Dnieper (excluding a southern track to Odessa) as being anything beyond "an extremely unlikely scenario". We are truly in unexpected territory here.

Exactly. No one said it happened, just that this type of scenario that you accurately described (stupidity, lack of awareness, etc) is how conflicts can expand. Also, from that great follow that @InkaUtexas recommended: