Shady Ray

I mean, how does that type of evacuation even get done...and how long does that take. I am a logistics moron of the highest order.

Yes, there is a significant portion of the people here who view the US as having a vested interest in fomenting tensions in Ukraine, but I would not say an overwhelming majority. But it isn't small, either. And when you add the people who think the US might play a role in escalating/encouraging this PLUS the percentage of people who literally don't give a fuck about what happens in Donbass and just want it to "stay over there", and you would probably get to a majority. The "I don't give a fuck" sentiment is a real, real strong one. And that's because the Germans view each side as basically regarded. But the Germans also know quite a bit about the actual units on the front lines of the Donbass, and their political extremes, which we discussed before in this thread. And wayyyyy back in one of my longcat posts, of which I know have been many, I made the statement that you would get an idea of which way the German winds might be blowing in Berlin as we neared the conflict by whether certain publications begain publishing stories about Neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian military. I am a cynic in that regard due to the requirement of "access journalism model" to get scoops in this current media climate, so I tend to view most mainline media as telling a story fed by someone in power, as opposed to seeing them as some type of gumshoe reporters. A large part of the media industry (but not all) are simply too dependent on keeping and cultivating access to those in power not to do that. Welp, it had been months - maybe even a year - since I saw one discussing the unfortunate (and relatively small) Neo-Nazi elements of Ukrainian forces, and even that was in terms of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine's collusion and coordination with Neo-Nazis in Germany. Welp, over the past two days there have been three "top stories" about how Neo-Nazi the front line units of Azov are. And one of those was in the Berliner Morgenpost, which is closely associated with the Chancellery, and one was in Focus which is the second biggest outlet in Germany. The reason I mention this is because IMO, this is a way to keep it in the German people's minds that anything could happen over there, and that they should not put it out of the realm of possibility that Ukrainian could act provocatively. So in that light, I don't know how effective calling out the playbook would be, as there are at least elements of the establishment who are trying to prep for "flexibility".

Exactly, and that's why Poland isn't going to be able to pursue their own independent military block where they take on Russia with the UK and the US. They are too dependent on German largesse to risk it. They'd collapse economically if Germany turned the screws. And absolutely. EU integration has been great. And Germany recognizes that apparently much more than Poland does...that's is why there is no such thing as a DeutschExit movement. Germany's populist anti-EU party gets 10%. The Poles literally put theirs in power. Re Russia, sure. But there are obviously structural reasons in place that prevent the German-Russian trade relationship from expanding to the degree that it naturally would without obstacles in its way like sanctions, EU policy, etc. There are literally foreign policy doctrines of years gone by in western capitals designed to prevent that exact Berlin-Moscow scenario...it is that significant to Trans-Atlantic cohesion. The point I was making is in a hypothetical world where Germany was free from those sanctions and obligations, the speed at which the German and Russian economies would intertwine would make heads spin.

This is the same thing Annalena and Olaf have said for months, but for some reason the US media keeps saying every utterance of NS2 out of her mouth as though this is new. The Germans have said for weeks that "everything is on the table". I am not saying that it isn't going to be cancelled. It certainly could...but a lot of it depends on exactly what goes on in Ukraine. But if this was some type of increase in rhetoric, it would be all over the news here, and her statement re NS2 was in the eight paragraph of the coverage in Die Welt on her speech at the Munich SC. The headline here was that she said Russian aggression was unacceptable, which isn't exactly groundbreaking.

I mean, in a world with no internal EU pressure to keep EU gas transit states like Poland in the mix, a German wet dream would be the replacement of the entirety of the Ukrainian gas delivery system with a direct Vyborg, Russia to Greifswald, DE pipeline network that was maintained by Germans and Austrians, therefore ensuring that the maximum capacity could be acheived and would actually be maintained in a halfway decent manner, which doesn't happen at all in Ukraine. They would also drop every sanction under the sun and would dump a fuuuuuuuckton of direct investment into Russia. Germany already invests a lot, but not nearly as much as it wants to. Without US pressure, the amount of Foreign Direct Investment would skyrocket. I mean, hell, two weeks ago, in the middle of this whole ordeal, a bunch of German CEOs from Siemens, BMW, etc. took a direct meeting with Putin to discuss new projects. Italian CEOs did the same. I work for a big German company and our execs get hard at the mention of Russian deals. They drive a hard bargain, but comparatively speaking to many other EU countries, they are very, very easy to work with. Shit gets signed, and then shit gets done. Germans and Russians just know how to do business together. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/german-ceos-look-past-ukraine-tensions-to-take-putin-meeting Germany's former Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder is basically in charge of Nord Stream AG and is Chairman of the Board of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer. Gerhardt got Germany some great long-term contracts - of course, driven by Russia's own self-interests - and Germany would absolutely do more if left free to its own devices.

Been browsing PornHub. de, I see.

Great people. Great food. Great-looking women. Absolutely admirable determination and doggedness. Tough as nails. Many, however, have a completely insane view of their own status though. Polls in one of their big newspapers showed over 40% want a second referendum on EU membership, and "PolExit" is really a thing that they talk about. I can't imagine it is actually that high, and I doubt they would be so dumb as to follow through with a "Leave" vote, but the fact that even a measurable amount of them even think about shows a serious disconnection from reality. So...lemme get this straight...you net 12 billion dollars annually of someone else's straight cash (homie) to pay for your roads, bridges, railways, and agriculture development, but over 40% of you want a re-vote on EU membership because Poland can do it better on their own, because the gheys suck (they implemented "LGBTQ-Free Zones" all throughout SE Poland before the EU withheld just a little bit of their EU funds, after which those same municipal leaders became suddenly not quite so Catholic and reversed course), and because you want to go your own way on Ukraine? Okayyyy. The idea of PolExit makes Brexit seem absolutely rational.

I'll give you that it is way fucking bigger than it should be.

And that would be the first steps toward the formal rupture of the EU. If such an alternative happened where the US/UK and economically weaker eastern European EU member states actually got to the point where they were increasing the likelihood of open and active conflict with Russia as part of this new alliance, you will see unprecedented heavyhandedness from Brussels. And Poland will take the crown as the biggest losers in the whole undertaking when the dust settles. That's why it will never happen as a true alternate center of gravity. From an economic standpoint, it's simple calculus. Poland can choose to pursue such a hypothetical "alternative, ACTIVE militarily block", silently backed by the US, and go tits up economically. Or it can continue operating within the status quo, choosing to influence from within the current European security/economic apparatus. But Poland cannot and will not be permitted by those who subsidize its current financial development to serve as the Continental driver of a legitimate alternative which can economically harm the hands that feed everyone. This is the deal you make when you take billions upon billions upon billions from Brussels. The EU isn't a charity, and altruism doesn't exist within the Union, so Poland is subject to the physics of a transactional relationship in which they get farrrrrrr more than they give. In the EU, everyone has an equal vote. But not everyone has equal power. So the idea that the big economic powers of Europe are going to just stand aside and continue to essentially float Poland's economic viability (at least to its current standard of living), while simultaneously looking away while the Poles take measures increasing the likelihood of direct conflict with Russia on behalf of a non-EU/non-NATO country alongside non-EU members (actions which could fundamentally cripple German (and to greatly impact to the negative French and Italian economies) is much more workable in theory. As the US is well aware, NATO permits the primary paymaster a great degree influence on security policy within the EU. But the reverse is also true...the EU's primary paymasters also gain security policy influence over those who depend on their largesse. So Poland can dabble in these kind of side-projects to a certain degree, and it can raise as much hell as it wants within the confines of the existing structure...block what it wants, gripe about whatever, tweet about how resolute you are in the face of Russian aggression, trash the Germans for NS2...whatever y'all want. But if it expands to actively undermining French-Italian-German economic interests (and thus the economic interests of the entire block, considering everyone would suffer if the three big boys tanked) by coordinating with the US and the Brits to start enforcing no fly zones over Eastern Ukraine and other such ideas, it will result in coordinated economic punishment inflicted upon Poland by the two countries who fund Poland's success. It would put the existence of the entire EU at risk, which would only serve to diminish the US influence in the big european economies, which the US is not stupid enough to trade for. And, of course, it will increase the potential for further Russian exploitation, because then the obstacle to complete and total Russo-German (and Germany-dependent countries) alignment on energy and raw material would have absolutely zero roadblocks anymore. Basically, if the Poles want to go their own way on foreign policy, just watch how far off the reservation the Germans can go. NS2 is nothing in comparison to what would happen. NS2 is actually a restrained version of what the Germans would REALLY like to have. The geopolitical impact of that fallout is far, far greater to the US than some British-Polish-Ukrainian objectives. And to its credit, the US is way too smart to let that happen. As a refresher visual:

I really think you are way out of line with this cynicism towards the views of the German people. They had great success providing a safe, secure environment for their own southern neighbors to determine their own path forward via referendum, and they simply would like to afford others the same opportunity to better themselves through the ballot box. Why do you hate democracy?

Russia pulling out the persona non grata cards...Deputy US Ambassador to Russia kicked out. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-latest-russia-expels-deputy-us-ambassador/a-60808178

Interesting and informative poll came out here last week from one of the regular pollsters in the big periodicals. While the overall results aren't necessarily surprising (only 33% of Germans chose as the appropriate govt response type of supportive measures to Ukraine either in the form of weapons deliveries (15%) or stopping NS2 (18%)), a couple of other things are interesting: 1. One third of Germans essentially support the Crimea-ization of the "People's Republics", supporting a "referendum" for Russian-speaking regions to choose to leave Ukraine, which is essentially even more hostile to Ukraine than just "Germany should stay out of it"; 2. The Center-right CDU and the Greens are the "most friendly" to Ukraine, but even so, a whopping 61% of those support either an independence vote or complete German absention from involvement; the "most hostile" are the former DDR communists of Die Linke, with 78% in favor of the absention/referendum options and the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland at 76%, with the SPD supporting those measures at 64% and the Free Dems at 62%. So almost exactly the same amount of Germans support the Republics breaking away completely as delivering weapons/halting NS2. That is shocking IMO. And that is a remarkably consistent position across the entirety of what is a fairly wide political spectrum here. Good thing for Ukraine that Germany doesn't have a say on it. Translation of the graphic: Ukraine-Conflict: Only every third for more active support "The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified in recent weeks. How do you think the federal government should behave?" Dark Blue: Supporting Ukraine with arms supplies so that it could defend itself in the event of a Russian invasion. Turquoise: Prevent the NS2 gas pipeline from being put into operation so that Russia cannot deliver additional gas to Germany bypassing Ukraine. Grey: Do not support either of the conflicting parties and stay out of the conflict Light Blue: Work to ensure that the Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine can decide in free elections whether they want to remain part of Ukraine ============================== Ukraine conflict: Only one third of Germans in favor of more active support for Ukraine Hamburg, February 10, 2022 - While diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Ukraine conflict are in full swing, especially in Germany, France and the United States, only one-third of Germans want the German government to provide more active support for Ukraine. According to a recent survey by the market and opinion research institute Ipsos, only 15 percent of German citizens are in favor of German arms deliveries to Ukraine. 18 percent believe the German government should prevent the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from going into operation as part of conflict resolution. ...... And just an interesting side-note from the full polling report...I guess you can take the Ossi out of the USSR, but you can't take the Russia out of the Ossi. East Germans more concerned about restraint In the eastern German federal states, at 42 percent (compared to 35% in total) there is an above-average number of respondents who advocate Germany not intervening in the Ukraine conflict. Accordingly, only 8 percent of East Germans (vs. 15% overall) consider arms deliveries from Germany and 14 percent (vs. 18% overall) to stop Nord Stream 2 as a suitable means of conflict resolution. In contrast, free elections in eastern Ukraine about remaining in Ukraine are slightly more in favor of eastern Germans with 36 percent approval (vs. 32 percent overall). https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-02/Ipsos-PI_Einstellungen-zum-Ukrainekonflikt_Politische-Frage-des-Monats_Feb2022.pdf

Yeah, that ain't even close to being right. If that was actually the case - at least here in Germany - you would see such an overwhelming position reflected in the strategies of at least one of the political parties, particularly in light of how significant foreign policy is in the national discourse. Given that we have 6 parties currently in the Bundestag (7 if you count the Bavarian CSU as separate from the larger German CDU, which is fair as it has its own foreign policy platform), all with their own niche takes on every issue under the sun, at least one would think that this is a fertile issue to exploit. But the one issue in which there is uniform agreement from the reds in die Linke to the Brownshirts in the AfD and all the colors in between is that Germany needs to stay the fuck out of this. And hell, if that poll is correct, we would be looking at 50% supporting military invention with diplomacy, and 26% supporting even without it, if necessary...that would be a very, very popular position. However, to date, we have absolutely zero political parties who have been suicidal enough to even float such an idea. And looking at the below poll, which was done by a very reputable pollster through one of the public broadcasters two weeks ago, I don't see how you square those results (outside of GOLL's point being that to Europeans defending means "sending Americans"). 73% says we shouldn't even send Ukraine weapons to defend themselves, but at the same time 76% believe Germans should head over and directly engage? Yeah, I am not buying that at all. https://www.rnd.de/politik/ukraine-konflikt-deutsche-gegen-waffenlieferungen-an-die-ukraine-H7UNL6FTBJEM3FDHTUG7S6ZHDA.html "Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine" Question 1: "Russia will invade Ukraine" Question 2: "Germany should deliver weapons to Ukraine"

This is right. At present, you would definitely have "no" votes from: -Germany* -France* -Italy* -Hungary -Greece -Croatia -Slovenia -Bulgaria -Spain (likely) -Portugal (likely) *now electorally immovable positions And that is before this situation even started. Now that it would appear that a NATO accession would exponentially increase the likelihood of an eventual NATO war with Russia, it is probably (quietly) more. And add to this the countries dependent on Germany who would be on the receiving end of intense financial pressure from Germany, you'd get to a lot more than that.

I'll defer to Lord Hastings Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO:* *It originally said Soviets

Germany would fall in line in that case. For a variety of reasons, including the political expediency of having most of the voters in the country support such joint defense. But also, because by failing to do it for a NATO member, then one of two things happens: NATO indeed dies, leaving Germany to pay for its own defense, or 2) NATO expells Germany, leaving Germany to pay for its own defense. You can see the common denominator in the two scenarios...it impacts Germany's bottom line. Germany still supports the idea of NATO, just sans Ukraine.

@Ghost of LL I actually don't think you and I disagree on much here. My post wasn't to say that the international order had been reshuffled or that a fatal schism had occurred within the West or anything like that, but rather to point out that given what has happened to date, what more is Putin going to get by invading? He can keep the pressure up and continue to destabilize the entire continent without so much as touching Ukrainian territory. And more specifically, what could he gain by invading that would justify squandering the benefits that he has essentially already secured in the form of intra-block disunity, the de facto death of NATO expansion, etc? All while maintaining the likelihood that NS2 goes live and his influence within Germany expands, which in turn gives him significant influence within the block, as we have seen in this thing. But, I don't see that he gains much more. That basket of goodies that he can collect upon leaving the game is inherently risked if he decides to move forward with an invasion. You can't keep the goodies AND invade, as one will inevitably result in the other being gone to a large degree. And I just don't see what potential gain would warrant him doing that. And there may be some...I myself just don't see them. He has realized benefits...and not because he is some great chess player, but because many of the gains have fallen in his lap due to a lack of unity of the West and the public exposure of faults that previously were not glaringly obvious to the general public. Sure, people who follow this closely knew about those weaknesses, but in Western Europe those divisions have been laid bare to the casual news consumer and there is an intrinsic benefit in that. This whole idea that the US and its NATO allies are aligned is political pablum for domestic US/UK consumption. It is clearly not the case, and while news outlets and chat shows in the US talk about how united the West is, ours in Germany say the exact opposite.   This last point is a great fucking point that will be the next big discussion if/when this Russia thing blows over. “Big German Industry”…read auto manufacturing… has only survived Covid due to China. If the Germans are dependent on Russia for gas, Gott Damn are they dependent on China to keep Big Auto and it’s associated economic ecosystems afloat. BMW sold over 40% of its cars to the Chinese market last year. Almost a million cars, and the half that they sold were to a very large degree the higher end models…the ChiComs loooooove themselves some 850i and Alpina B8 models. And they really like the stretch versions for extra leg room, which is a bit odd to me /NoRacist. By comparison, 20% went to the US market, and a higher portion of those were Minis and the mid-range X3 and X5 SUVs. That number is expected to increase this year. Daimler China sold almost a million units into China in 2021, also of higher end models, and China constituted almost 40% of their revenue, as well. VW sold just over 3 million, which was quite a bit down due to their chip shortage, and Audi sold 700k units, as well. That is a ton of business that puts a ton of food in German mouths. Now, there isn’t the institutionalized support structure within existing political parties for China…and God knows it doesn’t have the general “understanding” that the Russians do amongst the German populace, but it will be really, really interesting to see how Germany plays that one. So far, from my perspective, Berlin has been much more willing to play ball here, offering Washington more support for initiatives with China than with Russia. But if that starts to hit Auto sales, then we will see what Germany is ready to stomach. Anyway, I have probably derailed this issue too far into a German discussion, so back to the Russian topic at hand I will shuffle. Appreciate your solid points, as usual.

End of military maneuvers: Russia apparently withdraws troops from Crimea Russia reports troop withdrawal from Crimea 08:01 a.m.: According to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, the Russian armed forces have ended a military maneuver in Crimea. The units of the southern military district had finished their "tactical exercises" on the military bases of the peninsula and now returned to their home locations, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday, according to news agencies. Television pictures showed military units crossing a bridge that connects the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia to the mainland. https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-ukraine-konflikt-russland-meldet-truppen-rueckzug-von-der-krim_id_52139887.html

There are rumblings that this might require a serious - but quick - re-evaluation, but with the Greens as junior coalition partners in the government, it is going to be nearly impossible to do so without collapsing the coalition. And of course there is the whole timing element of it. No one thinks that this will be able to be completely climbed down in the current political environment, but there will be an Industry push for at least a delay from the year-end deadline. Given time constraints, though, that push is going to have to see some quick success behind the scenes. There are schools of thought that the public has seen a glimpse of the abyss that we are facing and might be more receptive than in the past. We will see.

Ok, so assuming that what we have seen today indicates de-escalation (which, of course, isn’t certain by any means yet) what would be the fall-out from a Public Relations / Political/ “Intra-EU/NATO/Continental” standpoint? And does the insight into the European impact of a possible withdrawal help determine what Putin’s next move is going to be? Within the US, there would be a lot of “Putin flinched” or “Putin’s bluff was called and he backed down” type of spin, but would that really be the case? And just as importantly, what would the perception/reaction be here in Europe, which is ultimately the geographic area that this entire ordeal was designed to impact? If you are Putin, what would you reasonably get out of this if you end it right now, at 9:00 PM Moscow time on February 15th, 2022? And what could you still possibly gain? I will spoiler my take for length:

Yeah, he met with Assad today and is supposed oversee naval drills. Russia told the Israeli's to cool it with their actions in Syria last week, so this could be related to that. Russia has been fucking with Israeli GPS systems over the last few weeks and I think the general feeling was that they were sending the message that Syria could be a theater in which they apply pressure, so get on the horn with your allies in the US and encourage them to come to the table. Russian and Syrian air force also carried out joint patrols along the Israeli border last month, including just up to the Golan Heights, which was a first. So I assume all of this Syria stuff is still linked to Ukraine indirectly. GOLL and I were talking about this a few weeks back as being a place they could apply additional pressure, and I bet this is intended to send that message. Ukraine dies down, Israel will have a much freeer hand again in Syria.

German news radio saying Putin has said that he will not accept the recommendation from the Duma regarding recognition of the "People's Republics", but instead will insist on the resolution occurring through the parameters of Minsk 2. Which, of course, can change...but at least for now, that's his position.

"NATO eastward enlargement is not likely to occur during our term in office." LOL, Olaf. That might be next month at the rate you are going. They are done.

Watching the live stream now of Putin and Scholz. It is remarkable the difference in Scholz's tone and demeanor with Putin today vs. with Zelensky yesterday. Scholz is clearly much warmer and comfortable today. But he looks absolutely beat to fuck. Avoided the NS2 topic. Encouraged economic cooperation with Russia, lol. Mercantiles gonna mercantile. Won't criticise ex-chanceller/fellow SPD member Gerhard Schröder's role with NS2. Putin praises Gerhardt saying he negotiated the cheap rates that we pay here and that we should be thankful for such a "good man". Lolz. They just asked about Navalny, which he basically punted on saying the Germans have addressed this. Says Russia is showing good faith by removing troops. Diplomacy is far from exhausted. "It is our damned duty to prevent escalation in Europe" "Both sides must implement the Minsk agreements" Putin wants clarity from NATO on Ukrainian accession. Will post more as they keep going.