Shady Ray

Interesting to see the Ukrainian FM shift his tone over the course of an hour. First reaction after being asked about it was reported here in Germany at approx 11:00 AM CET: "Different statements come from Russia all the time, that's why we have the rule - not to believe when we hear it, but to believe when we see it." Then, appoximately an hour later at 11:48 CET: "We and our allies managed to prevent Russia from further escalating," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in Kiev on Tuesday. "It is now mid-February and you can see that our diplomacy continues to work." Something is causing him to change his tone.

And now the Duma formally requests Putin to recognize the "People's Republics". Obviously, this is all coordinated with Putin, so the question is whether he intends to act on it, thus escalating the tension. Or, alternatively, declines to accept the recommendation, thus portraying himself as a reasonable leader. This one is going to be interesting. Russia Duma Votes to Ask Putin to Recognize Ukraine Separatists Kremlin hasn’t publicly announced position on proposal Recognition could hit peace talks, open way for more support The lower house of Russia’s parliament voted to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognize separatist entities in eastern Ukraine, potentially raising tensions in the region. Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said the resolution will be sent to the president “immediately.” The Kremlin so far hasn’t publicly stated its position on the proposal. The Duma rejected a draft proposed by the ruling United Russia party to send the resolution to the Foreign Ministry for consideration. Russia has supported the breakaway quasi-states of the so-called People’s Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk militarily and financially since their formation in 2014. Officially it denies any armed support and backs a peace plan that calls for their reintegration into Ukraine. Recognition could complicate or scuttle efforts to implement that pact and potentially pave the way for Moscow to openly supply more weapons to the republics, something the ruling party has already proposed. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-duma-votes-to-ask-putin-to-recognize-ukraine-separatists-kznzqs1l

RT, which of course has no other redeeming value than in its capacity as official mouthpiece for the Kremlin, has the withdrawal of troops from Belarus blaring in large font on their homepage with a "watch Russia pull back weaponry after Belarus drills" call to action just underneath. So they clearly want this information distributed widely and visibly. It could be a feint, or it could be pro-active PR spin for the foreign or domestic audience indicating a draw-down, or it could be something else. But it is clearly organized and meant to be seen. And notably at the top of the corresponding article: Major General Igor Konashenkov, the chief spokesperson for the ministry, delivered the news in a video released by military chiefs on Tuesday. “As the forces complete their military exercises, they will, as always, complete a multimodal march back to their permanent bases,” Konashenkov stated. “The divisions of the South and West Military Districts have finished their tasks and have already begun loading the rail and automobile transport, and today will begin moving back to their military garrisons.” https://www.rt.com/russia/549402-troops-withdrawing-ukraine-border/ Edited to include the following which is top story on Focus: Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Russian invasion could be averted for the time being 10.48 a.m.: According to Ukraine, a Russian invasion has been averted for the time being. "We and our allies managed to prevent Russia from escalating further," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in Kiev on Tuesday. It is already mid-February and you can see that diplomacy continues to work. The government in Moscow had previously announced a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. Units from the military districts in the south and west of Russia would have "fulfilled their tasks" and would make their way back to their military bases, said a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, according to Russian news agencies. https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-russland-kuendigt-teil-abzug-von-soldaten-an-scholz-verweigert-putins-pcr-test_id_52139887.html

Currency markets seem to think so:

True. I cannot imagine him starting anything with Scholz there, but after that I think any time is possible. Putin has such a large amount of quiet, whispered "understanding" here in Germany, which is exteremely valuable in the short, mid, and long-term to Russia. If he slapped Germany in the face by attacking while Whisperin' Olaf was there, it would hit Germans in that critical spot known as the massive German ego. I honestly think the day after Scholz's visit would be risky in that same light, as it indicates that he didn't even take his talk with Scholz seriously. But, I guess a lot of people say it is tomorrow, which still seems odd to me that we have an actual date on which a war is supposed to kick off, but "it is what it is" in this weird information space that we are all in.

Totally agree with this. I don't think there would be near the hesitancy to support collective NATO action against Russia if he touched NATO countries in places that have, to date, been reluctant to get involved, mainly Germany. It isn't like the Germans would enjoy it, but there is enough rationality here for the argument of "Putin wants to reassemble the USSR" (which is basically dismissed here as over-simplistic hype) to all of a sudden become very real if the Baltics were touched. He would lose the valuable leverage that he has within the EU, specifically a sympathetic and indifferent Germany and France, by doing something so expansive as that.

Yeah, I think if he goes in, it is an incremental approach. Start off with a massive cyber attack, along with tactical air strikes on Ukrainian bases, logistics/transport centers, airfields, Azov Battalion positions, to disable the already weak Ukrainian air potential. And perhaps demonstrate Russian capabilities with respect to Electronic Warfare, which from what I understand is actually very high. They have been displaying some of this informally in Syria lately, and the Israelis have been complaining about it. Shoigu has had a hard-on for EW over the last decade and there are definitely schools of thought out there that believe that they have been saving a lot of these advancements for this precise conflict. EW in conjunction with targeted, precision hits on legitimate military targets - if successful - could demonstrate to the Ukrainian’s that even the limited avenues for defense that they thought they had (Bayraktar drones, those dated guided systems from western allies, etc) are worthless. They would then pause, demand concessions alongside buy-in from western allies for real, genuine enforcement of any arrangements with Kiev (and I am going with K-I-E-V as I am crotchety and reluctant towards change) Kyiv. This - if limited to areas east of the Dnieper - would also leave the door open for the Germans and French to make the domestic argument that this was not an invasion in the sense that self-harming economic sanctions must be levied…but rather that it was a logical extension of the ongoing Donbass situation and that a “temporary” pause to things like NS2 is the maximum that is warranted. As an aside, I have noticed in the past three days that opposition leaders criticizing Scholz have moved away from “NS2 must die with an invasion” to “NS2 must be temporarily halted with an invasion.” Weaselly politicians, the lot of them. But if you asked the average German voter if they would trade the destruction of legitimate military targets, even with the unfortunate collateral damage that would come with that, for this issue to go away for good, they’d jump at the idea in the privacy of their own minds. Of course, all the while this scenario is happening, you’d have god-knows-what going on with the People’s Republic militias and the Little Green Men. This is where the PR war would be very difficult for Russia, as whatever happens in Donetsk and Luhansk is going to be ugly. Anyway, if that doesn’t produce a forced resolution, then they could move towards isolation of urban areas with significant pro-Russian contingents like Mariupol and Kharkiv, as well as the full on destruction of the Ukrainian airforce on the ground. It is one thing to destroy their air infrastructure, but another to start actually destroying their remaining Migs. That is a psychological escalation that would resonate with the populations. They could then use their Navy to block off the Black Sea coast, deepening Ukraine’s economic isolation. And then again, pause and demand concessions in exchange for cessation of hostilities. This could proceed for another two steps or so, with strategic pauses between each, if limited to the east before even getting to the point where tanks needed to roll. As you said, there are plenty of Vlad Jrs. in Ukraine and with the Russian recon capabilities so focused on the East of Ukraine, they will be able to target all kinds of destruction on front line units from the sky, specifically around Donbass. And honestly, that is part of their goal anyway…those front-line units like Azov are in the crosshairs and even if opening strikes are limited for PR reasons, they will do everything they can to annihilate those elements of the Ukrainian forces and my guess is that they know very well where those particular units are and will deliberately destroy them. That would actually play really well at home, given Azov's reputation and history. At this point, any of the above would not be seen as unreasonable in quiet, influential corners of Western European capitals; and it would certainly not be enough for a domestic politician to spite his own economy (and political future) by slapping iron-clad, permanent sanctions on Russia. Once we moved beyond this, I still think that if tank column incursions were limited to southeastern Ukraine in the areas around the Donbass, stretching down the Black Sea to Kherson, there would still be an element of Western European society which sees this as “rationally related” to the existing conflict, particularly as most people here really don't even see the Crimean annexation as unreasonable. It's kind of an attitude of "well, if Crimea is part of Russia, there is historical reasoning for it...and if it's part of Ukraine, there's also reasoning for it. Let us not waste our time or thougts caring about it or the immediate areas around it." But if things moved beyond that to a full-on shelling of urban centers like they did in Syria or Chechnya, then you’d be much more likely to permanent wide-spread buy-in for hard, permanent sanctions. But there is a long way between the first situation above and Kiev as Aleppo or Grozny. But I have no military experience and am not nearly as well-versed on actual military shit like you guys are, so I could just be talking out of my ass. It has been known to happen before. Edited to change to Kyiv, as 956 set me straight.

Good stuff in this thread from the dude that Inka recommended. Will be interesting to see whether these are re-routed or sent back to permanent bases. I would say this movement is one of the better predictors we have at this exact moment.

And a new day, a new round of tilting at windmills with Ambassador extraordinaire, Andriy Melnyk. This time "demanding" that Olaf - the world's meekest man - "bang his fist and perhaps also his shoe" on the infamous long table at the Kremlin and that Germany shut down NS2 publicly and "forever and ever." I completely understand that it is an unbearably dire situation for Ukraine, but ambassadors should be able to come across in ways beyond just "unhinged". That's kind of part of the job. But I do wonder if he realizes that no one in Germany cares what he has to say anymore...it's almost like a Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany invoking its National Socialist history for months on a regular basis tends to erode ones ability to influence public opinion in times of crisis.

And late last night from one of the big German periodicals, Focus: ... NATO moratorium could be a compromise solution Meanwhile, Putin has increased the pressure to such an extent that his goal of publicly preventing Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO once and for all is suddenly within reach. While this was completely ruled out just a few weeks ago, there are now initial considerations among Western allies on how to accommodate the Russians (at least provisionally). This compromise will certainly have been the subject of the talks between Zelensky and Scholz. Ukraine would now have to bring it into play. NATO could thus preserve its "open door policy". But how realistic is this scenario? In response to the corresponding question of a journalist in the press conference, the Ukrainian president only replied: "That was not on the agenda." Instead, Zelensky noticeably often mentions that he wants EU membership for Ukraine. This afternoon, the ambivalent situation in which the president finds himself becomes more than clear. On the one hand, he knows that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO in the near future. There is no point invoking war for something that will not happen anyway - actually. On the other hand, Zelensky is under enormous domestic political pressure. He cannot afford to publicly agree to such a moratorium. An offer to Putin However, Zelensky and Scholz can offer the Russians something else this Monday: Ukrainian compliance with the Minsk Agreement. Anyone who remembers the press conference of Foreign Minister Baerbock and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will also remember that Lavrov complained there: Ukraine would not comply with the Minsk Agreement. If it were now possible to get the laws promised there in Kiev, this would be a concession that the Russians could not reject. On the return flight to Berlin, Scholz comes to the accompanying journalists at several thousand meters altitude on so-called background. Conversations like this are strictly confidential. But it is clear: Scholz seems relaxed and even makes a few anecdotes. The chancellor gives the impression that he has achieved today what he wanted to achieve. Tomorrow it will become clear whether Putin sees it the same way. https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/kann-er-damit-den-krieg-verhindern-scholz-verlaesst-ukraine-mit-einem-signal-an-putin_id_53610232.html

In light of Scholz's meeting with Putin in Moscow today, I'm curious if he will come with some type of "hail mary" push towards some type of formalized moratorium on Ukrainian accession to NATO. Obviously, even without the current situation, they wouldn't even be considered any time soon, but there have definitely been media pieces playing this up a lot more in the past couple of days.

Zelensky clearly irritated in his presser with Scholz, as Scholz (nor anyone else, apparently) won't answer him about what sanctions are on the table. And Germany making sure to point it out in front of the cameras how much money is coming from Berlin. Translation from the live ticker in Germany's Focus magazine: Zelenskyi on Russia sanctions: "Not only the chancellor did not answer the question" 3:26 p.m.: Keyword arms delivery to Ukraine. "You know German legislation on arms exports," says Scholz. Requests are constantly being re-examined and are also currently being examined. However, I would like to emphasize once again: The Federal Republic is the largest donor financially. 3:21 p.m.: Scholz again speaks of "far-reaching sanctions" without specifying them. 3:20 p.m.: A catalogue of sanctions is being prepared, says Scholz. But you are able to act at any time. We are able to make the necessary decisions every day. [...] No one should doubt the determination and preparedness of the EU and NATO." 3:17 p.m.: "I don't know what sanctions are being used," says Zelenskyj. It was not only the Chancellor who did not answer the question. I have asked the question to heads of government several times and I have not received an answer - unfortunately, says Zelenskyj. 3:03 p.m.: Now Chancellor Scholz speaks. "One message is very important to me: Germany is very close to your side," he begins. No country has supported Ukraine more financially in recent years than the Federal Republic. More than two billion euros have already been given. Furthermore, the country receives 150 million euros as a new untied financial loan, and 150 million are available from an existing loan that has not yet flown out. https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-bundeskanzler-scholz-reist-nach-kiew_id_52139887.html

I honestly don't know a ton about them, beyond what @atomheartbevo linked above and that they are all over the place in Mali at the moment and that Africa in general has a ton of them. But I have read that the Donbass People's Republics are crawling with them at the moment and that they had a ton to do with current organization of the existing LDPR structure. I think it is pretty much assured they are going to be very involved with any direct action between the Ukrainian military and the separatists.

Head of the governing SPD's Parliamentary Group going hard in the paint vs the US this morning on the German version of Good Morning America: It must be publicly acknowledged "that Russia also has legitimate security interests," says SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich. The country is unsettled. The USA's "major mistakes," such as the war in Iraq, also played a role. Ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Kiev, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich also attributed Russian security concerns to "major mistakes" made by the U.S. government under then-President George W. Bush. In addition to the "invasion of Iraq," he named "distortions here in Europe" and the "departure from arms control." "All of these are things that also unsettle Russia," Mützenich told ARD's "Morgenmagazin." "I don't share certain concerns, but I certainly understand them." He added that it must be publicly acknowledged "that Russia also has legitimate security interests." "This has nothing to do with Ukraine," but "with the U.S. and its elimination of arms agreements." https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article236887795/Ukraine-Muetzenich-Grosser-Fehler-der-USA.html

And once again a fresh demand from Ukrainian Ambassador to Berlin this morning for 12,000 anti-tank missiles from Germany. I really don't understand this approach. The Germans have not budged one, single, solitary inch and they clearly aren't going to. The entire world is already aware of Germany's refusal to supply arms and repeatedly coming on German TV "demanding" arms (and he is demanding) is not shedding any new light on their continued refusal. But by doing this every other fucking day, they are just pissing the German people off even more. The German people are the ones refusing this...not just the German Government. The public support for not giving them weapons is rock solid...this is coming across almost like a personal obsession at this point. The German psyche gets off on demonstrating stubborness in these situations. Melnyk needs to just let it go at this point, as he is doing more harm than good. Also, Scholz in Kiev today, and in Moscow to meet with Putin mañana. Ukrainian ambassador demands 12,000 anti-tank missiles from Germany Monday, 02/14, 7:16 a.m.: Before Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Kiev, the Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin renewed the demand for heavy weapons from Germany. On Bild2-TV, Andrij Melnyk demanded the immediate delivery of 12,000 anti-tank missiles on Sunday in order to be able to fend off a possible Russian ground offensive against Ukraine. "The situation is already dramatic," he said. What we have to be prepared for today is the worst scenario. https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-bundeskanzler-scholz-reist-nach-kiew_id_52139887.html

Yeah, assuming it did pass, which I don't think it would, it would have to be something far more substantive than just removing it from the constitution. It would have to be some type of first step towards formalized Finlandization, and I just don't see that happening. Plus, the Twitters are saying Zelensky is saying this is absolutely not on the table and that the UK Ambassador spoke out of school.

Will be interesting to see how the below would play out, both within Ukraine and with Russia. I can't imagine that the Poroshenko wing would go for this at all, and I think any journey down this road would be short lived in Kiev. But interesting nevertheless. If this was somehow sufficient to de-escalate, the Germans would open up the fuckin' Bundesbank wide to make it worth Ukraine's while, in exchange for formal recognition that the NATO membership track was formally over. Ukrainian oligarchs would feast on tasty German-issued euros for years.

Dude seems really knowledgeable, matter-of-fact, and not in the least bit concerned with self-promotion or notoriety. Many thanks for the recommendation.

I think 956 makes some good points there...particularly the points about why Ukraine is targeted while others aren't. And from a German perspective, much of it is because of money. Azerbaijan doesn't get (nor do they vocally demand) large amounts of German money. Nor does Belarus, of course. But Ukraine's position to Germany from an optical perspective is "Fuck you. Pay us." We will siphon gas meant for you, we will blatantly steal your infrastructure investments and direct them into the pockets of our worst oligarchs, and then we will complain in public standing right next to your ministers about how you don't care to support us and will disparage you to American presidents about how much you suck. But nevertheless, pay us. And not to get back into this, because to some degree it is like disparaging the soon-to-be-dead, but from a PR perspective, the refusal of certain elements in Ukrainian politics/military to shut down Nazi marches honoring the SS Galicia, or continue to display the Wolfsangel at every fucking turn, or venerate Stepan Bandera, is a huge PR problem here. As we have discussed, that is by no means a significant percentage Ukrainians and the Russians massively overstate this as part of their propaganda, but they are very vocal and it is a serious issue within Germany and it is very visible. And the Germans just don’t want to go back down that road and some Ukrainians for some reason can’t see how much harm this does them in Germany, so they continue to do it. It is a real problem here.

Yes. Absolutely. 5 out of the 6 political parties in the Bundestag (Social Democrats, Christian Democrats/Social Union, Free Democrats, The Left, Alternative fur Deutschland) would end any type of support for Ukraine this afternoon if it didn't mean getting sideways with Washington. Only the Greens wouldn't. Reading the true German sentiment in polls or media is tough because Germans want to come across as enlightened/pro-democratic, etc., but truth be told the level of which Ukraine is disliked by Germans is completely unlike any other country. And some of that is just good old-fashioned German xenophobia towards Slavs, but a lot of that is because the PR strategy of Ukraine has not been particularly wise vis a vis Germany. At some point, Germans get tired of being referred to as Nazis because the country they pump billions into doesn't get weapons. Ukraine is seen by Germans as an unserious country that can't get its shit together. I was sitting at dinner with a German colleague a few weeks ago and we were discussing this...his statement was "Anti-Ukraine sentiment is the only xenophobia that we are still allowed to get by with in polite company." And he is right.

Yeah, that's gonna be really interesting. They are supposed to take it up in subcommittee in the Duma on Tuesday, I think. But United Russia has not signed onto the resolution or given a "tell" which way they are going to go. Definitely something to watch.

I think now that we are turning from the political positioning of the various external parties into what appears to be an actual military conflict, it could be worthwhile to discuss the political situation within Ukraine itself. The entire concept of a robust, organized resistance is entirely predicated on some semblance of unity on the homefront, which is absolutely not the case at the present moment. In fact, during the past few weeks, when a rational political class should have been pushing its constituents to coalesce around its existing government and putting their differences aside in order to focus on an external threat, Ukrainian leaders have done the exact opposite. In fact, at no point since the Maidan has Ukraine been more divided amongst its own, pro-Ukraine, pro-Western movements. So, in that light, here is where the domestic political situation stands, at least in my estimation, as there are a ton of shifts going on within Ukraine at the moment that cannot be separated from this conflict. I have made no secret of my lack of confidence in the Ukrainian leadership, but at the same time I empathize with Zelensky’s situation - it is truly an impossible one - and I am going to give my best attempt to provide a neutral summary so that news can be perceived with an accurate backdrop of what is going on in Ukraine domestically, particularly once the bombs start dropping. 1. Petro Poroshenko Firstly, it is impossible to understand Zelenksy’s position without understanding a bit about his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, who also remains his most significant existing rival. Poroshenko was the fifth president of Ukraine, but more importantly, he was the first (excluding the nominal caretaker) after Maidan. Poroshenko is a confectionary magnate, and is an oligarch in his own right. His power base is in the far west of Ukraine, specifically Lviv, and he understandably took a fairly hardline stance against Russia after Maidan, Crimea, Donbass War, etc. In the 2014 election, which he won with an absolute majority in a crowded field on a platform of “Army, Language, Church”, Poroshenko secured backing from a wide variety of Ukrainian oligarchs, hawks within the Ukrainian military, etc. And by midway through his presidency his relationship with the hard right elements that have been discussed earlier in this thread to formalize to the point where his administration was dependent on continued close ties with the hard-right. Here are the electoral maps from Poroshenko's win in 2014. Light grey is Poroshenko: Poroshenko also had firm backers in the US Govt, given his willingness to take on the Russian issue very aggressively. During Poroshenko’s tenure, the continued strangulation of the Ukrainian state by oligarchs tightened and Ukraine did assume a more robust position against Russia. Early in his administration, he supported some of the more controversial of the language laws escalating Ukrainian over Russian, which wasn't well received in Eastern Ukraine. He also legitimized/rehabilitated the nazi-collaborators of the OUN, which was very divisive east of the Dnieper, and he supported the creation separate Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was also an act that was very inflammatory in the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and was a large factor in the 2018 Orthodox schism between Moscow and Constantinople. There are many other examples of Poroshenko taking on positions that would make him very unpopular with the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, and I don’t think there is a rational analyst that could say that he was not indeed a hawk wrt Russia and Russian influence. Poroshenko is also as corrupt as can be. He is - even by Ukrainian standards - a completely immoral politician who was roundly kicked out of office for his corruption, losing to current president Zelensky by a margin of approx 75% to 25% in 2019. In German and French corners, Poroshenko is absolutely despised as embodying everything that is wrong about East Slavic corruption and governmental grift. He is known as the Chocolate Oligarch to the Germans and Merkel openly despised him, going so far as to teaming up with the Russians and French to essentially impose Minsk 2 on him from the outside, as the separatists were beginning to kick the shit out of the Ukrainian army in areas surrounding the Donbas back in early 2015. Pictures are worth a thousand words, and you can see the entire Minsk 2 story play out in the following short clip, where you see Merkel, and former French president Francois Hollande welcome Putin warmly, and you can see Poroshenko's facial expression at the end when he is obligated to shake Putin's hand. It is of a man beaten into doing something he doesn't want to do. And sorry to post the clip from RT, but it isn't readily found elsewhere: 2. Current President Vlodomyr Zelensky But to their credit, the Ukrainian people were so tired of Poroshenko's grift, self-dealing and enabling of even deeper corruption, that they kicked him out of office…although the result of that was giving the presidency to Zelensky, a slapstick-style comedian and a complete political novice who played the role of “Mr. Smith goes to Washington” style Ukrainian President on a TV show, along with other notable roles like feigning playing the piano with his dick for five-minute intervals on variety shows. If you think I am being facetious, here is the clip of the future Ukrainian war-time president who now has the mandate to lead Ukraine into battle against the Russian Army. This was two years prior to his election. I think it goes without saying that he is not a serious person. Not particularly Churchillian, either, but I digress. Zelensky won, kicking the absolute shit out of Poroshenko. The people had tired of Poroshenko's corruption and Zelensky absolutely mopped the floor with him, leaving Poroshenko's sole base of power as the strongly nationalist areas in the far west of Ukraine surrounding Lviv. Here are the results of that election: Zelensky ran on three primary issues against Poroshenko. 1) A peaceful and final resolution of Donbass situation, 2) elimination of oligarchs in Ukrainian politics, and 3) an end to the rampant culture of corruption in Ukraine that is an embarrassment to the rest of Europe. He has been completely unable to deliver anything with respect to 1 and 3, and he has limited his progress with respect to #2 to those oligarchs who oppose him, but not the ones who don't. The ones who support him, most notably the corrupt-as-fuck Igor Kolomoisky, who owns the TV station that used to run Zelensky’s shows, have been escalated to positions of essential de facto control of the Ukrainian state (as recently as last month Zelensky took his holiday along with Kolomoisky). Meanwhile, Zelensky has proceeded to shut down/seize over a half-dozen TV stations, which are always painted in English language media as purely “pro-Russian” stations, which many are. But many are actually pro-Western, but anti-Zelensky (2 of which were owned by the former president and anti-russian hawk Poroshenko). It is worth noting that Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, has also been investigated by the FBI for moving illicit funds in and out of the US via is ownership in Ukraine's largest bank, which directly relate to his mining empire, including much of it involving his West Virginia and Ohio mining operations. Bottom line re Zelensky, he is a complete novice who campaigned on dialing down conflict with Russia, his political "home" of being somewhere in between the hardline right and the hardline pro-Russian elements is becoming untenable. And both sides want him out and are significantly benefitting from the current tension, and each flank will continue to see political benefits if this goes hot. This is not a situation where every politician in Ukraine loses if war starts...in fact, the only one that truly loses is Zelensky. And perhaps another moderate, Dmytro Razumkov, who is Zelensky's primary competition from the moderate side, but who is essentially a non-factor at present. 3. Pro-Russian Politicians On the other side, of course, are pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians like oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, who was placed under house arrest and has been largely sidelined. However, his pro-Russian party, OPFL, has joined with other pro-Russian gas tycoons and have now released an official position of Ukraine as a non-aligned country. These pro-Russians are not the only political movement with that tendency though. Yevhen Murayev - who the BBC reported a few weeks ago as being backed as a potential puppet installed by the Kremlin - is hated by Viktor Medvedchuk - and is trying to compete with OPFL as the “pro-Russian, yet moderate” alternative who can finally bring peace. With Putin’s behavior galvanizing most of Ukraine into an anti-Russian position, it is unlikely that those pro-Russian movements will gain any additional traction, but at a local level in certain parts of Eastern Ukraine, it does put Zelensky into a tough position because his message of peace with Russia did play well there, and the erosion of faith there only contributes to the current instability with Zelensky. Each attempt to placate them with a peaceful resolution, however, is met with a corresponding counter-reaction in the nationalist areas of the West. So he truly is fucked. 4. Current Situation As this situation has ramped up, Zelensky has tanked in the polls falling to the level of his rival Poroshenko. So there is an absolute benefit being felt by certain elements within Ukrainian politics. Recall the overwhelming support that Zelensky had coming in to his presidency in 2019...well, here is the current polling from a mixture of outlets. As you can see, support has not necessarily gone back to Poroshenko. It instead has just been scattered amongst a bunch of different movements. So at the moment, there is no clear heir apparent...and the ones which are in the running are all objectively as corrupt as can be. Poroshenko has been charged with treason, Tymoshenko has a 20 year history of absolutely unconscionable fraud and graft. But more importantly, there is no one currently on the horizon who could step in and rally the troops around a central figure. Zelensky’s department of justice then charged Poroshenko with treason in December 2021 and threatened to throw him in jail if he returned. Poroshenko returned defiantly last month, and made a complete farce of the televised proceedings, falling asleep multiple times in front of the judge and then holding a rally in front of the courthouse where he whipped up nationalist supporters, as he has a tendency to do now that his movement is essentially only supported by the various gradients of Ukrainian nationalism, ranging from legitimate patriots to the hardline far-right wingers. He also has support in Poland and elsewhere in some eastern European countries, but again, he is absolutely hated in western european capitals, but still has a lot of support in DC. Over the past few weeks, Poroshenko has been relentlessly bashing Zelensky, calling him incompetent and insufficiently pro-Ukrainian, and has spooled up his followers to have almost as much vitriol towards Zelensky that they do towards Moscow, which is saying something. At the moment, Poroshenko has cemented his return as the most powerful figure on the Ukrainian Right and he absolutely stands to benefit if Russia launches an attack. It should be noted that it was somewhat of a surprise that Poroshenko wasn't thrown in jail upon his return and subsequent farcical bail hearing…he made a political spectacle of his return, and then made a joke of the hearing, but ultimately got maximum leniency. It came out later that Zelensky had been told by Justin Trudeau and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland not to arrest Poroshenko, to which the Ukrainian leadership responded by dutifully backing down, changing its mind and letting him walk. And that’s not conspiracy theory…the Globe and Mail were the ones who broke this. "Canada Credited for Preventing Arrest of Former Ukrainian President": https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-credited-for-preventing-arrest-of-former-ukrainian-president/ So Poroshenko has good reason to believe that he still has the backing of the West, which he has had since he first took office in 2014, and his continued efforts towards internal Ukrainian destabilization from the pro-Ukrainian wing will likely continue. But most importantly to the current situation: Poroshenko and the pro-Russian sides each gain power under the current tensions. The Western media tries to portray Ukraine as united and prepared to fight Russia, but the truth is, the various political leaders are just as prepared to fight each other if the political winds allow a benefit to be derived by doing so. Now of course, that can change when the reality of an invasion sets in, but much of such a change would depend on these rivals throwing Zelensky support publicly, which is essentially an impossible expectation given these people's moral character, plus the fact that most of those on the right will blame Zelensky for allowing this to happen in the first place. So in that light, assuming Russia invades, we should not be under the illusion that Ukrainian political movements are going to coalesce to support their government. Zelensky is in an awful position and he knows that the one the US truly wants in power, Poroshenko, is waiting in the wings. Any development in which Zelensky falls due to internal pressures should be looked at very, very suspiciously. This is one of the reasons he has been so vocal in calling for everyone to settle down, along with the legitimate concern that the hysteria is crushing what is left of the Ukrainian economy. So from a political perspective, the question is: Assuming Zelensky is forced into snap elections to reconfirm the country’s confidence in his leadership, which many are already discussing, could those even occur with Russian artillery raining down and Russian troops on the move? Would such an election be seen as legitimate, both within Ukraine and abroad? And if not, what is the option if a sketch comedian proves himself unable to govern a country that is being torn apart internally, as well as at its external borders? Can an effective Ukrainian resistance led by a moderate with no military acumen, or will it descend into disparate groups fighting against the Russian invaders, while also carrying out their own internal steps to gain power? The New York Times did an article a few weeks back about who exactly surrounds Zelensky, and it wasn't pretty. It is essentially all former sketch comedians. Ukraine has essentially spent the last 3 years whistling past the graveyard and there is absolutely no argument to be made that they are prepared internally for this. Their economy is cratering from even its typical abysmal state and they have burned a ton of bridges with some powerful allies in the west who are now taking domestic political heat for endlessly transferring them funds. Even with strong, centralized, cohesive leadership, this would be a very difficult undertaking…without such leadership, it has the potential to really get ugly across the board.

Essentially zero. There is an "unofficial' connection between NATO membership and an implicit EU membership track. The Germans have never been supportive of the idea of Ukraine joining NATO and the 2008 statement by NATO that Ukraine and Georgia woud "someday" join was made over German (and French) protestations. But after the obvious deterioration in the relationship between Germany and Ukraine (which was occurring well before this whole ordeal began), the past year has essentially cemented the German disdain for Ukraine. And Berlin will block any attempt for them to join for the forseeable future. I would say at least 25 years, and that is being generous to Ukraine. That is not to say that they want it invaded or carved up or anything, but the German view that Ukraine admission to either entity will bring absoluely no benefits, but rather endless headaches and will undermine Continental security, has been confirmed in the eyes of the Germans. Germany is absolutely done bringing in eastern countries to the EU, and anything that provides momentum to a potential EU candidacy of Ukraine, which NATO membership would be, will be suffocated immediately in the womb by Berlin. Long gone are the days when some former Warsaw Pact countries were diamonds in the rough that a little TLC and direct investment could elevate to being great EU member states...looking at you, Czechs. For perspective, for all the talk about how pathetic and dysfunctional the Russian GDP per capita is, the Ukrainian GDP per capita is about a third of that. It's a fucking trainwreck of a corrupt country and no amount of German taxpayer euros would be able to overcome the systemic corruption, governmental incompetence and structural/demographic decay that prevents it from functioning in any way resembling self-determination and self-sufficiency. The Ukrainian state has for years been unable to fund itself and it now depends to a very large degree on direct German and EU aid. Admitting them to the EU would make it even worse, as a massive country with somewhere around 45 million people (no one knows Ukraine's actual population because they haven't been able to carry out a census in over 20 years now), would be such a drain, and would create such a destabilizing effect on the EU, that it would cause ripple effects throughout the block. This isn't like potentially dragging in little Bosnia up to standards...this is a huge country with huge problems. And outside of the above, there are at least another half-dozen member states that would kill their accession for their own reasons. France, Italy, Hungary come to mind. But there are others. Russia is simply too important in a lot of local economies for the block to ever get the required unanimity on Ukraine.

Germans just now called for citizens to leave. Embassy remaining open for now.

Yep. It is getting closer. Lots of activity going on pointing in that direction today.