David Epstein, author of Range, has an interesting blog I follow and I like it because it's short. He brought up a good point about Replacement Theory in his latest, I'll copy and paste it below. Worth a read:
Replacement theory is a fear-stoking ideology. Iâm not particularly interested in discussing that claim further.
But I do wonder if an actual understanding of demographics might make it harder for one to be radicalized around this particular âtheory.â
At the end of this sentence, please stop reading for a moment and estimate the percentage of the U.S. population that is composed of Muslims. Take at least a few seconds to thinkâŠ
Seriously, just guess; nobodyâs grading you.
Letâs say you meant to make the three-hour drive from New York City to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (to check out the incredible Midtown Scholar Bookstore, naturally) and overshot by that magnitude, going 17 times the actual distance. Youâd end up in Los Angeles.
While weâre at it, what percentage of the American population is Black? Jewish? Make a guess! Again, youâre not getting graded, and according to a psychological finding known as the âgeneration effect,â youâll better retain the correct information if you struggle to come up with your own answer first.
Answers:
I think people's awareness of the numerical context of their world has a major impact on, for example, what theyâre afraid of, and how they view inequality. Iâve been in rooms of 0.1-percenters who talk about the 1% as if theyâre someone else.
On that note, the Ipsos study asked: âWhat percentage of total household wealth do you think the least wealthy 70% own?â
Morning Brew (probably my favorite newsletter, alongside Eric Barkerâs Barking Up the Wrong Tree) noted that replacement theory, âonce a far-right fringe conceptâŠhas been increasingly cited on cable news.â
According to a poll conducted in December by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, one in three American adults âbelieves an effort is underway to replace U.S.-born Americans with immigrants for electoral gains.â
If there is such a plot afoot, itâs not going so well. According to data from the Census Bureau, immigrants make up a smaller percentage of the American population than they did in the late 19th century.
Our values around not killing people obviously shouldnât depend on how prevalent those people are. At the same time, I canât help but wonder if these killers would be more resistant to radicalization if, while spelunking the internet, they became as curious about the numbers around them as they are about finding reasons to hate people.
I think we should all strive to develop number sense for our world, especially because itâs so easy now to find basic data with a few seconds of search. Perhaps familiarizing young people with the numbers around them would also be a great thing to do in school, year after year.
If youâre interested in improving your number sense, just spend a few minutes searching for a relevant number next time a news story intrigues you. Or just peruse the best website on the internet, Our World in Data.
No need to be perfect with your number sense, but I think there is an urgent need to be curious.