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Vegas64

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Everything posted by Vegas64

  1. We all know the idea of a strawman (we are messageboard herectics, after all),but what has become popular these days (at least to me) is the use of Steelman/Steelmanning and how it's being used wrong in popular media. (saw derka posted about quinn, so trying to get the thread back off track which--ironically enough-- is better than on track. the thread that proves the rule via exception).
  2. Should have posted here my bet, but agree with you completely on prediction markets being a good options for all the reasons you suggest: Put up $700 for 10,000 shares (@ .07 cents ea.) for LaNorris Sellers to win the Hesiman. If he wins it's a payout of $10,000 (13x or 1300% return on investment). My logic is a) he looks good b) it's a good value and c) SoCar SHOULD (or at least COULD) be 5-0 and a top 10 team going into their first real test against LSU in October. At the very least I should be able to double the money and shave some profits and revisit the landscape by then.
  3. Back at it again: Put up $700 for 10,000 shares (@ .07 cents ea.) for LaNorris Sellers to win the Hesiman. If he wins it's a payout of $10,000 (13x or 1300% return on investment). My logic is a) he looks good b) it's a good value and c) SoCar SHOULD (or at least COULD) be 5-0 and a top 10 team going into their first real test against LSU in October. At the very least I should be able to double the money and shave some profits and revisit the landscape by then.
  4. What’s interesting about the puts and takes of American students going abroad and the continued international students coming here will be watching how it plays out over the long term— 10 to 20 to 30 years. We have more liberally arts minded kids who care about things like politics and quality of life at a minimum and probably are in targeted minority groups that feel existentially unsafe at a maximum (lgbt+). In all cases upper middle class to organize and finance your way out as an expat student. On the other hand you have hungry and motivated students coming in to top flight and increasingly second tier schools even for hard sciences and STEM from China, India and Nigeria in droves (and as a way to get around the general lottery/quotas these countries always fill up quickly to get into US). These kids are increasingly staying, getting good jobs, having families and first generation American kids etc.
  5. I was talking about how you mumbled something vaguely about our fertilizer purchases as an equivocation for India buying Russia fuel as full on contrarians. It’s not just about detangling the mechanisms and slowly moving away from an entrenched supply chain when it comes to India and Russia. India actively ramped up and increased their spend with Russia huge starting around 2022 exactly because Russia needed to make deals and needed the money for their unjust war. India has proven to be the self-interested opportunistic buyer of this fuel on purpose, and they (Modi) are actively giving the finger to the West and US when diplomatically asked to stop. Usually with a mushed mouth equivocation of “US and Europe used to buy a ton of Russian oil so yall are hypocrites and something something fertilizers”. What is the best play for someone like Modi? I don’t know, but it’s been tried for 3 years. The elections last year signaled hes lost some support in parts of the country and, while not a referendum, definitely gave him and his party a reality check. Maybe hitting him/India in the pocket books can further erode some of support internally if it translates to economic downturn. Big if, considering I think US imports is only 20% of Indian trade math.
  6. Central Intelligence starring The Rock and Kevin Hart. I thought it was pretty funny actually with Jason Bateman being the funniest part in his limited screen time.
  7. While Modi and Xi are meeting soon (first time since 2020 I believe), I think you are right. India is a self-centered opportunist and those relationships won’t be rebuilt overnight. But keep an eye on it (and BRICS getting closer in general).
  8. Look, I get it. You read an economist article once every week or so. There are some of us who follow India and BJP specifically a lot more closely. Is there a more artful way to be punitive with India here? Of course, especially since Trump has ruined the global discourse screeching “TARIFF” to everyone. But in this case, I actually don’t mind it and think it’s more signal than noise using it as a quasi-sanction in order to try and engage in behavior modification for Modi. Modi who, it should be noted, is every bit a nationalistic strongman (with just as much ambition) as the bad world leaders of fame today; Trump, Putin, Netanyahu.
  9. Major oil purchases from China ($62B per annum) and India ($53B), together buying ~85% of Russia’s entire seaborne crude US imports of Russian uranium ($600M), palladium ($900M), and fertilisers ($1.3B). apples and oranges when it comes to scale ($53bn vs 2bn) And yes, India getting punished for defying the entire West’s wishes and being on of two countries propping up Putin is pushing them to thaw with China and cozy up more with Russia. That sounds like making an excuse for India.
  10. Okay sure I’ll trust you. Thanks. Are we having fun yet?
  11. What part of “stop buying fuel, bouying the Russian economy and currency in the face of Western sanctions, and being the lifeblood of the machine that is massacring Ukrainians” are you missing, though?
  12. Are you sure? I’ve always heard begs the question is a logical fallacy of sorts which is necessarily self-referential, and the correct term MOST of the time people want is “raises the question” now do compel vs impel and how that’s used wrong.
  13. This thread the last 48 hours is peak— and I mean PEAK offseason morass. 3 days before the season starts. proving the rule “never peak too early”? either way, 3 more days
  14. helping brisket out because we know he's not very technical:
  15. I agree with Troph; ruts are a normal parts of the human condition and of life. It stands to reason that will happen in your spiritual life as well. I think the main thing to remember is the long game. I had it described to me once as "Faith and obedience is a long walk in the same direction." Sometimes you are making a brisk pace in a bee-line in that direction and other times you are stumbling to the left and right barely making any forward progress. All that matters is, like Paul said, that at the end of you life you've run the race and didn't quit.
  16. Massive (teenager emoting at me saying that) tariff imposed on India as of 12:01a. Feel like this will have some very interesting short term and long term effects. The game is now afoot.
  17. Batts Hall was the 6 pack that even in the late 90's felt like it's best days were 100 years behind it, right? I failed English in that venerable hall. Middle left of the six pack if memory serves.
  18. How hard could Plan II Physics at UT Austin be? I mean, you just use 82 character-long formulas that look like bit encryption to try and prove dark energy in a novel and unique way. Big whoop. Seen harder on campus.
  19. My son tells me this is not unique to UTD and is more the rule than the exception in STEM courses these days.
  20. I'm in the camp of "good for them" while also not caring at all except being happy for that large demographic and segment of our population for which celebrity couples and weddings and following their lives parasocially gives them joy and helps their mental health (a la Royal Wedding(s) as someone compared).
  21. Yea, I spent $500 on my dorm room at UT and that was many decades ago. Adjust for inflation and I believe it.
  22. To make up for the DINKS and those who have 0 or 1, for negative growth rate with an eye to future GDP growth for the unquenchable thirst of late stage capitalism?
  23. Sophisticated hoax reports have hit multiple university campuses in the last few days causing chaos and trauma, including UT-Chattanooga, Villanova, the University of South Carolina, Iowa State, and Kansas State.
  24. This is a belief. I wholeheartedly agress with you in the short and medium term. I even tend to agree in the longterm projecting out to many lifetimes. But I'm increasingly doubting this is the case for the eternal the more I learn and the more we learn about our universe.
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