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Vegas64

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Everything posted by Vegas64

  1. Is this all because Israel claims Hamas faked hostages? https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c891ex72nj7t
  2. I think we weren't going to ever get serious on this as a country until after November 1st, when the real tires meet the road. From what I can tell on November 1st we will see the higher health insurance premiums (functionally lapsing the Obama-era healthcare subsidies that Republicans shurt down the government to get rid of). From what I can tell the Democrats strategy is to let the full breadth of people who rely on ACA feel the pain in the short term and put pressure on lawmakers so that it isn't axed for the long term, coupled with the severe pain of everything else that goes on with a shutdown (e.g. SNAP benefits being turned off in red states, ATC's, military, etc.) Also Nov. 1st is the first paycheck that will be missed for a lionshare of the fed workers, despite the shutdown being almost a month old. I think we see movement on a deal in some way shape or form in the next 7-10 days.
  3. These sorts of comments (I see them a lot not just you) remind me of inferior teams who are upsetting more talented ones, who just need to take the air out of the ball and run clock and sneak away with a win. If you have children or grandchildren, what are you telling them or how are you giving guidance for their future careers? Genuinely curious because now more than ever I think it’s important to have those conversations with our youth in order to try and see them up for their futures which are going to be markedly different than what we lived through.
  4. Interesting. My AWS friends are sufficiently worried.
  5. crossposting from the aws thread, but amazon supposedly cutting 15% or 30,000 corporate employees tomorrow. That's a TON of very smart, hard-driven employees whose resumes gonna flood the tech job market. Good luck to anyone impacted.
  6. I'm now hearing it could be up to 15% of the workforce. A day of reckoning my AWS friends are calling it.
  7. I put it in google and this what Gemini AI spits out. Sounds kinda like it, I suppose! Milei's economic achievements Fiscal surplus: For the first time since 2009, Argentina achieved a budget surplus for the full year 2024, a major political achievement given the country's long history of deficits. Crushed inflation: The government's drastic spending cuts helped bring staggering monthly inflation down from a peak of around 25% in December 2023 to between 2% and 3% in early 2025. This has been a key factor in slowing the annual inflation rate, which had neared 300%. Shrunk the public sector: Milei's government followed through on its promises to slash public spending by firing tens of thousands of government workers and reducing the number of ministries from 19 to 9. The policy has also significantly reduced transfers to provinces. The painful consequences of "shock therapy" Deep recession: The austerity measures have caused a sharp economic contraction. Consumer spending fell by 20% in the past year, and the International Monetary Fund projected a 3.5% contraction for 2024. Soaring poverty: Poverty rates surged to a two-decade high of 52.9% in early 2024 following the shock measures. Though official statistics show it falling to 31.6% by mid-2025, independent researchers warn the methodology may not fully capture the pain from subsidy cuts. Hardship for the working class and seniors: The elimination of energy and transportation subsidies has caused bills to balloon for ordinary Argentines. The government's fiscal savings came in large part from freezing the real value of pensions, leaving many retirees struggling. Defunded public services: Milei's cuts have severely impacted public infrastructure projects, education, and scientific research. Universities have struggled to pay bills, and construction workers have been laid off in large numbers.
  8. I absolutely would not be surprised if journalists are using AI now and passing it as their own.
  9. Amazon laying off 30,000 people? That seems like a lot
  10. Man, for my money there isn’t a better sausage than Lockhart Smokehouse. Get it by the ring, both the OG and Jap and Cheese; Perfect. Perfect snap, perfect blend, greasy but also a nice dryness to it that lets your enjoy the taste and the linger. Just a personal favorite.
  11. Yes! It was like in a median it felt like. Across or by Ken’s donuts? The rare times I was up before 10am I stumbled there still hurting.
  12. TIL: Katie Ledecky (GOAT olympic swimmer) is related to the owner of the NHL's New York Islanders (uncle).
  13. To be fair the surplus was 9 months before the currency swap (and to be the most fair, without the currency swap and $20/$40bn bailout, maybe he loses in a landslide), but as it stands today he almost tripled his seats which is like if Texas were to beat Vandy by 20-- hard to imagine before it happens, but it could happen!
  14. Exactly this. His 'phase 1' already delivered Argentina's first full-year surplus in 123 years and crushed monthly inflation from ~25% to ~2%, all by slashing things Argentina can't really afford (subsidies, costly public works, and a big public sector). And while poverty is still high, the latest stats show it’s falling (though critics argue the numbers cloud a complex picture). His planned 'phase 2' reforms will be just as big and polarising, whether deregulating the labour market, simplifying the tax code, or privatising another ~20 state-owned firms. https://www.thetimes.com/world/latin-america/article/javier-milei-argentina-elections-2025-f3k6jbbf9
  15. My company tracks as a KPI our use of various (there are actually quite a few) AI applications we use. Engaging with them is compliance. It's definitely becoming a "measure what matters" metric for executives and the end result is allegedly to help employees be more productive and save time and energy on low skill, high manual tasks, but let's see.
  16. right the suicide had nothing to do with this/football/pedo. the boy came home sullen, went upstairs, and the parent found him hanging in what appears to be a super tragic and sad case of teenage depression, hurt and sorrow and overwhelming emotions etc. so while unrelated, still a double whammy of back to back painful episodes for the community and Celina seems to be going through it right now. have a lot of friends who sold in frisco @ 3-4x what they bought in for and bought in cash mansions with olympic sized pools out there with a lot of acreage but that town in general has seen exponential growth.
  17. The analysis I was reading was that a referendum on Millei's policies woudl be to endure all the pain of the austerity and not have the stomach/patience to see it out for the "potential" gain. The worst of both worlds, in other words, and with the $20bn lifeline, it bought time to prove out the thesis I guess.
  18. So do we drop out of the top 25 with that win?
  19. I bought 106 shares on prediction marker for like .06 because why not we could come back (I think it was 38-28). The win isn’t amazing but it’s a nice $100 bonus too
  20. I guess so. The way I am left feeling after the other night is that with the bare minimum table stakes management you would expect from everyone except the handful of poverty mismanaged franchies (and Nico), Wemby is completely a variable that cannot be accounted for in a way I think we have rarely, if ever, seen. I could be taken in by the moment and being a recency bias victim here, but it feels like Wemby and a nice player and 3 JAGs should be favorites every year for the next 10 if a) he stays healthy and b) no other genetic freak mutant all-stars come into the league that can meet or beat what wet bananas brings to the game. edit to add, I have heard pundits describe it as like when Wilt was playing and there was nobody in his stratosphere comparisons type projections.
  21. Was talking about this today. He's a cheat code. If the Spurs can't win a bucket full of championships in his run then it's because Wemby was injured.
  22. I didn't give much credence to the NBA rigging the Draft for us to get Flagg after trading Doncic away for AD and a bucket of balls, but with all this gambling stuff and the fact that the executives all knew, I'm starting to think it's not really a conspiracy theory anymore and more of an open secret.
  23. Gotcha, not the baliwick I was thinking/had some inroads to, but will keep an ear out for ya!
  24. lol ok. cool, hook em, my friend!
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