Saw this objective analysis from a newsletter I subscribe to (bold emphasis mine):
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Twitter, of course, has not gone down (although there do at times seem to be oddities consistent with some sort of degradation, but it’s hard to know to what extent this is a sort of psychosomatic suspicion of bugs that have always existed), and Musk is bragging about record users and engagement. That, though, doesn’t solve the issues I have raised around monetization and regulators; the advantage for Musk, though, is that those are no longer the expectations: simply staying online is now seen as a Musk victory.
This isn’t the first time we have seen similar dynamics, of course: there is sometimes a tendency to imagine the worst possible outcome and to proceed as if it is an inevitability, and then, when that outcome does not come to pass, more moderate concerns are discredited in the wash. Like, for example, a potential degradation in service, or, as I have been writing about, concerns about monetization and regulatory action. Those are still real concerns — and to be fair, I suppose Twitter could forget to renew a security certificate or something — but it seems to me that the hysteria of last Friday has, counter-intuitively, increased the chances that Musk succeeds because it already seems like he has.
What I have not seen much discussion about is the positive impact on Twitter’s financials of all of Twitter’s layoffs and resignations. According to Platformer Twitter had 2,700 full time employees as of last Monday; that’s down from 7,500 at the end of last year (there were also a reported 4,000 contractors let go). Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that 20% of Twitter’s Cost of Revenue, and 80% of Research & Development, Sales & Marketing, and General & Administrative were salaries:
2021 (in thousands)
Total Costs
$ Salary
Salary Costs
Cost of Revenue
$1,797,510
20%
$359,502
R&D, S&M, G&A
$3,007,010
80%
$2,405,608
Total
$2,765,110
Employees
7,500
Average
$368,680
Post-Layoffs
2,700
Total
$995,440
Again, these are very rough estimates, but I think it is reasonable to assume that Twitter’s employee costs have been cut significantly, leaving its total annual costs at around $3.0 billion (excluding last year’s lawsuit settlement); add on the company’s reported $1 billion in interest payments and the company needs to come up with $4.0 billion a year in revenue. 2021 revenue, meanwhile, was $5.1 billion, and remember, Twitter had around $6 billion in cash pre-buyout. In other words, while I suspect Twitter’s ad revenue has been impacted, it will take a pretty large impact to drive the company bankrupt.