With all due respect, I have absolutely no idea how you can make such a declarative statement at this juncture.
This scenario kinda strikes me as somewhat similar to Colt McCoy/Garrett Gilbert. On one side, you have a smallish 3-star QB who is a model of consistency and efficiency, with a wealth of experience, leadership, and proven results. On the other, you have the Gatorade National HS Player of the Year*, who took over as a sophomore replacing a P5 QB signee, put up eye-popping numbers for two years at a school with a well-established system, was essentially guaranteed he’d be given the keys in year two at the latest, but got just enough PT to burn his shirt while not getting any substantive game experience in the regular season. If McCoy was granted a sixth year somehow and decided to come back, I’m sure there would’ve been people saying GG was better in every quantifiable way…and those people would’ve been dead wrong in every quantifiable way.
I’m not saying the kid is bad, but the HS numbers you must necessarily be using to elevate Arnold in order to arrive at your conclusion, are fairly comparable to the college numbers Gabriel has been putting up practically since day one. There is simply no way to make this claim without overlooking that fundamental truth, because there is no other basis upon which you could build such an argument. He might very well be great, but we have not seen anything to suggest that is a certainty at this point.
*Note: Gilbert’s line from the HS AA game—11-22, 161 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT. Freshman regular season stats—15-26, 124 yds, 0 TD (1 Rush), 0 INT
Arnold’s line from the HS AA game—12-23, 100 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. Freshman regular season stats—18-24, 204 yds, 2 TD (1 Rush), 0 INT
I doubt Arnold is going to go 15-40 with 2 TDs and 4 INTs in the bowl game against Arizona, but he will have had a month of starter reps and the Wildcats aren’t exactly the ‘09 Crimson Tide. That said, I think it is an interesting matchup and I’m looking forward to it.