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locodos

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Posts posted by locodos

  1. 16 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

    Couple things:

    Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
     

    Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

    in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
    So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

    1) are the polls exactly right?

    2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

    3) who do they vote for?

    The norf cakalaki hillbillies are enraged and incensed that the US government hasn't rebuilt their houses, roads, and bridges yet.  Some of them didn't even have food or water given to them (checks notes) the day after the storm they were warned about for days in advance.  They think their hurricane relief funds (totally not socialist) have been given to Ukraine!

    They weren't going to vote for Kamala, but the storm made things worse for her there.

    15 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

    Look there's a thread for talking about 8-man rural Nebraska football and this isn't it. Get you shit together dipshitman.

     

    14 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

    The past is littered with people who followed their conscience.  Robert E Lee for example.

    History will be the judge.

    Hey and they should have hung Lee like he was Arnold fucking Palmer

    • Haha 1
  2. 7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Remember, they did media studies that the more negative she went on Trump, the more it hurt her numbers.  Voters responded way better to her positive ads.

    I assumed that was the case, but I think it is a HUGE mistake.  Don't normalize his awefulness.  That allows the BOTH SIDES crowd to feel ok about being a horrible person by voting for a horrible agenda.  Make grandma pull the lever for a rapist.

    • Like 1
  3. 6 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

    15 days away.  My estimated odds of various outcomes:

    Harris >319 (I breathe a sigh of relief and unclench my butthole for the first time since 2015): 3%

    Harris 319 (Harris sweeps swing states, I beat off 3 times): 10%

    13% chance of jacking it... Nice

    All the pictures of the dogs with the voting sticker made me think of Kristi Noem.  The sticker is probably where she shot her doggo.  Fuck Maga

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Haha 3
    • Rage+1 2
  4. 47 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

    Disagree. The middle class is not interested in saving anything and programs and policies don't work because the middle class has a culture problem. Plenty in the middle class could save and build wealth like years past, but they would rather get the giant truck they don't need, the 5000 square foot house they don't need, 3 kids all on travel youth sports teams, etc.

    Why save money when that doesn't get any engagement on Instagram?

    The middle class struggles because they are stupid with their money. Not because of a lack of opportunities.

    You're not talking about the middle class. 

    Anyone household with < $170k income isn't buying big SUVs while paying a mortgage/tax/insurance on a 5,000sqft house and travel league for 3 kids, and if they are, I'd think of them more as a financial genius than a slacker.  Yesterday, I walked by a SUV Costco was displaying for their car buying program.  Sticker was $52K  ...  for a fucking Kia!

    In 2022, the national middle-income range was about $56,600 to $169,800 annually for a household of three 

    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/16/are-you-in-the-american-middle-class/

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 3
  5. 1 minute ago, Bama Llama said:

    Read this when you have 15 minutes.  It will make you sober, make you vomit or make you drive to a battleground state and go door to door for Harris and Walz.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/20/us/politics/trump-scandals.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&tgrp=ctr&pvid=E65CE658-FDE0-4E8E-BD5F-7F72157E46BB
     

    This immoral, arrogant, dishonest stack of smegma must be deposited in the dustbin of history where he belongs.

    I don't need ANY additional motivation.  I've been working on friends and family in swing states.  My point was just that people view the world through their lens.  Those of us that can't imagine even 30% of voters pulling the lever for Trump will tend to view events and data from that perspective. 

    apropos of nothing...  I'm in S. Florida and there's a corner near my house that Trumpkins gather waive flags, signs, and I assume shoot puppies.  They've been doing it off and on for YEARS.   Yesterday I was driving by and saw the Trumpkins up ahead at the corner. It seemed like a pretty big group and I was thinking what I always think fuck these assholes and I need to install a hailer on my truck.   When I got closer I could see the flags and they were for Harris / Waltz.  Felt good to see.  But I don't think any Trumpkins will be dissuaded or converted in the same way the Trumpkins only pissed me off.  I'll feel better if there's a fucking blue wave... and whole rafts of Trump enablers and fuckbois are ostracized and mocked openly.

    • Hook 'Em 5
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  6. 3 minutes ago, Underdog said:

    Cliff notes? Too busy watching/laughing at the Ref shitshow in Austin. 

    Gata rb plows into the line 2yds out…. Huge pile up, no call, then the lights go out and fireworks…. I think they convinced the refs he made it in…. Replay inconclusive because it was just a huge pile of bodies.so the td call stands

     

    these down markers fucked up on tv no?

    • Haha 1
  7. 24 minutes ago, Zeus said:

    Dude that’s on Napier too

    RB runs all the way down the field to the 1 and you run QB sneak and fumble. Fuck. 
     

    Also coming out to win it by going for 2, then lining up in swinging gate and then kicking the FG. What a pussy. 

    I hate Napier…. He’s a shitty Muschamp 

     

    and there goes our best cb….fuck

  8. 10 minutes ago, Zeus said:

    Dude that’s on Napier too

    RB runs all the way down the field to the 1 and you run QB sneak and fumble. Fuck. 
     

    Also coming out to win it by going for 2, then lining up in swinging gate and then kicking the FG. What a pussy. 

    I hate Napier…. He’s a shitty Muschamp 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 25 minutes ago, Underdog said:

    UF with another score and the ass kicking has commenced... 27-6... BUT, Cats get 6 off KOR, 27-13 UF. 

    Ez wit that shit…. If anyone can fuck this up it’s the Gata.  That kick return was amazing 

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