I don't know how seriously to take the House vote from 2022. First there was a massive ten point Republican swing in Texas in the House elections.
But the Democrats did not even lose a seat and none of their incumbents were even seriously threatened. This happened at least partially because the 31st, 26th, 25th, 19th, 11th, and 6th were all unopposed and they weren't in 2020. And a few were previously pretty competitive in 2020. The 6th, 25th, and 31st previously had Democratic challengers with more than 40% of the vote.
So we seem to have gotten a 10 point swing in the second most populous state in the Union in a way that led to not a single Democratic seat being lost. To me that is partially, or even mostly, because six seats that previously were contested, were not.
So how can we just take the House vote in 2022 as some kind of evidence for anything? Trump isn't running unopposed in any states.
If we go across the whole country were unopposed seats well balanced in such a way that that number can be taken as evidence for this year?