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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Royalfan5

  1. 19 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    You're making this sound appealing.

    $250 would be on the lower end around here, but there are folks paying that.  Back in 2012 there were guys chucking around $500.  You still see big hog integrators that need land to spread manure pay over $350.  This current swing + last year's subsidies have absolutely pushed our rent averages up.

    Actual land sales tend to hang in anywhere from $8500-$12,000 per acre up here consistently.  Depends on ground quality and how many swinging dicks want the farm.

    NE Kansas is possibly the best spot to farm because you still get the Kansas discount, but your pretty close to Iowa yields and rains, without Nebraska's property tax, +right on the river for export along with access to multiple soybean crushers and ethanol plants, + specialty corn buyers if you are so inclined. 

  2. 46 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    Lotta truth to that.

    What are average land ownership costs in Kansas?

    Varies widely, but top end irrigated ground that can push 280 bu corn, is still below 250 cash rent for the most part. You have better property taxes than neighboring states too. You get out west and your cash rent is in the 30-50 per acre range, and irrigated is still in the low 100's for stuff that will push 200 bpa. 

  3. 29 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    Absolutely.  $70/acre for 160 bu is more bu per rent dollar than what you'd see around here.

    Weather variance makes Kansas an interesting place to farm because the ground is priced for the shitty weather years, but it's pretty much good enough dirt that the good years can blow away anyone else on returns. Of course, you're socially obligated to grow wheat, milo, and have cattle though. 

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  4. 23 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:


    Just to point out the difference in corn potential, 160 bu/acre would be an abject failure for us and most farmers in my area.

    Yeah but when your cash rent is 70 bucks an acre it’ll do just fine 

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  5. 55 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    When my spouse was an undergrad in Lincoln he had to come up with a marketing plan for an underutilized grain or something along those lines. He got outvoted (group project) in favor of an amaranth cookie but I always loved his idea: a cereal called Captain Milo. Nestle already made a product called 'Milo' that was derived from malted wheat so his idea got the downvote. IIRC, sorghum doesn't need as much irrigation as corn.

    Milo does well in dry conditions and China loves it. Usually trades at a discount of 30-50 cents to corn, currently is at 90-140 premium. The rub is that if it’s dry you’ll raise 90 bushel milo and 60 bushel corn, but if it’s good you’ll raise 100 bu milo and 160 bu corn. Also it’s really itchy and prone to create enough dust to blow up a grain elevator. 

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    • Like 1
  6. 24 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    That's definitely true.  Those fringe acres likely wouldn't shift without it.  I was surprised last summer when I went out to Yellowstone and saw corn planted all the way to the foothills of the Black Hills.  When I made that drive as a kid, you shifted to wheat as soon as you crossed the Missouri.

    I'm just talking about what's going on where I'm at.  We're more well suited for corn production than anywhere else in this country save for parts of Illinois.

    That's why it's always fun for me when my Iowa clients bitch about weather and what not, to tell them about what my Kansas guys have to deal with. 

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  7. 4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    Part of the issue here is that corn is a crop which is much more easy for farmers to profitably manipulate across a variety of weather and soil conditions.  Soybean yields are much more weather sensitive, and even at the current market positions, you can make more money per acre growing corn.  If it's too wet, soybeans develop mold.  If it's too dry, they burn up.  Corn varieties can continue to thrive in wet years if you keep hitting them with fertilizer, and the drought resistance of modern varieties is pretty damn impressive.

    You could eliminate direct subsidies and insurance, and in most years we make more money growing corn.  You grow soybeans to make a better margin off the next year's crop and hope they can break even or make you a little money.

    To get people away from growing corn, you have to have a profitable replacement.  That doesn't really exist right now in the corn belt.  We aren't growing corn because of direct subsidies.  We grow corn because it's the most profitable crop to grow in this environment.  It would likely take direct subsidization of alternative crops or increased CRP rates to push people away from growing corn.

    Even then, if direct subsidies and indirect subsidies like ethanol go away, you'll still see a lot of corn acres to keep up with livestock feeding demand.  Less than now, of course.

    I get that. That being said, the current corn set up gets corn acres in parts of the Western Corn Belt that should be heavier on beans or sorghum in NE, KS, SD, and CO that the one size fits all stuff in the farm program shifts to corn. 

  8. I'd also like to point out the main piece of subsisdation that keeps your corn acres up is that by and large the crop insurance program and how it's subsidized and set up is more lucrative for corn even in a supply environment that is crying out for more soybean acres. 

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  9. 31 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

    Lol probably not happy watching everyone gladly drive across the state line to hit up the CO dispensaries 

    The real bitch is Colorado's on one side with the weed, and Missouri's on the other side with the good fireworks. 

    • Haha 4
  10. 17 hours ago, Underdog said:

    They'll just have him stuffed and parade him all over the country. 

    Reminds me of when I was in Bangkok after the King had died, and our guide causally mention that they shoved a large stick up the King's ass to keep him propped up for the mourners filing by. 

  11. 7 minutes ago, Atxracer said:

    I kinda feel like in Austin/Houston, it’s pretty close to a necessity.  

    That’s probably fair. I’ve always filed pools with the floats of the triple FFF approach to buying, and not given it a second thought

  12. 19 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

    What?  Yeah add yet another job to firefighters.  Those trucks are not designed for a plow and they already cost an arm an a leg.  
     

    They mount them here for record snows here. Not every time, but when you’ve got a situation they can do in a pinch.

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  13. 1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

    I assume they have road temp sensors for that elevated roadways since everyone knows they freeze first. 

    Spraying saltwater 2 days earlier is ridiculous. That would have worn off by the time of the freeze. Should have been treating and retreating through the overnight and morning hours. Or they should have shut of that section until they could get salt and sand there. 

    In cold weather climes, cities enlist garbage trucks and Parks Department vehicles to aid in sanding/salting.  There is more than one way to approach a solvable problem. 

     

    Fire trucks can push a plow too

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  14. 8 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

    I really don't see the strategy working with a commodity, but I'm very interested in seeing how it goes. If it works, I have half a mind to set up r/farmsteeetbets.

    I’ll just note their are massive fund longs in pretty much every Ag commodity right now, with corn and soybeans inverted and wheat nearly there. 

  15. 25 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

    Some rumbling about the Reddit boys pulling a short squeeze on silver this time. Online silver retailers are claiming to be sold out of anything that is not already marked up as collectible. Regular bars and common coins not to be found on selling sites.

    Maybe they all have secret second families in East Texas to support 

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