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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Royalfan5

  1. 7 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


    I can speak for Minnesota and ND... both are doing twice the daily testing compared to all of April. ND isn’t growing too much besides Fargo area. Minnesota is has seen days And nearly triple since last week.


    Feel like April was just a waste of time data wise as we couldn’t get tests to absolutely everybody who needed it.

    In Lincoln we’ve went from 115 a day available to 300 a day, and they’re getting through the packing plants now too. It seems like we probably peaked in raw numbers this week too. 

  2. 11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Meat packing plants out in the panhandle. They bus a bunch of people from Amarillo out there. 

    On the viral load and meat packing plant note, the areas with packing plants with all sorts of folks testing positive aren’t seeing a huge surge in hospitalizations after the first wave. Likely because it’s a generally younger and fit workforce with the older workers in less strenuous roles. The Grand Island area saw a surge at first but it also had nursing home our breaks, which I’m sure tied together because cleaning staff at the nursing homes and the plant labor force overlap at home 

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  3. For your afternoon livestock report, cattle runs through packing plants were off slightly but still ahead of Wednesday's low with a slightly bigger Saturday run expected, and with bigger cattle production should be past the low point if sustained. Hogs were down slightly from yesterday, but 20K off the low, with a bigger Saturday run expected as well. The Tyson Plant in Dakota City, NE continues to make JBS in Grand Island like they've done a good job with 670 of 4000 workers testing positive in the past week. They are expected to run on Monday after being idle the last two weeks. 

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  4. So for you AM livestock note, fresh pork values were up another 5% this morning, mostly because bellies went apeshit, they are now more than triple what they were two weeks ago, which was record lows, other cuts are flattening out. Beef values worked a little higher, but they are still about 40% higher than the old record and seem to be flattening a bit. Loads have ticked up so they backed up cattle are closing a little of the gap with heavier carcasses which should mostly find a home as hamburger. 

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  5. 14 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

    https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/30/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

    The latest turns in Minnesota's outbreak seems to be focusing on nursing homes and meat packing plants. The bug has also gotten into Gold n Plump's poultry plants in Willmar and Cold Spring. JBSin Worthington is opening enough to start killing hogs but not processing them. 

    Two more weeks of stay-at-home. Thanks to those who won't follow guidelines, we now have orders. 

    All of Nebraska's a pretty well packing plant tied at this point too. Killing hogs at Worthington will help take some of the pressure off the barns at least, I'd rather they sacrifice the ready hogs than the young ones so we minimize the echo shortage later on. I also should have noted we sold a lot of pork for export to China last week too, so it appears we are going to be pretty committed to cleaning out cold storage the greatest extent possible. 

  6. So the packers showed some improvement today, cattle hit 80K for the first time this week, up 10% from yesterday, hogs are up about 22K from yesterday, about 10% better as well. Getting back towards 2/3rd of normal run rates. Still leaves a big hole but if we improve into the weekend the worst may be past there, still probably be hit and miss on certain cuts through to mid to late May. 

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  7. For your AM livestock report, fresh beef prices slowed their rise but are still moving higher with focus on reports that fast food is trying to secure as much grinding meat as possible, fresh pork is just about to $100 with freezer stocks getting drawn down more by non-traditional buyers. Doesn't seem like a lot of movement on the plant front but I've got guys able to ship steers for the first time in a month to Dodge City so hopefully that's a good sign. 

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  8. So livestock slaughter runs continued to decline with cattle down to 72K, and yesterday was revised 4K lower to 72K, and hogs were down 12K to 271K, so we are about to 60% on cattle run rates, and almost 50% on hogs. So no instant impact from the defense production act, it does sound like worker turn out is starting to improve which should start to show some improvement soon. 

    • Like 1
  9. 11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    The problem is twofold.   First, there is no easy way to distinguish between people economically impacted by covid, those inconvenienced by it, and those not affected at all.  You can’t simply look at a paycheck and see the full picture of that person’s living situation and whether covid has caused them to incur additional expenses that normally wouldn’t be present (additional expenses that unemployment would not cover).  .  

    Second, much like the tax rebate(s)or whatever back in 2008, and this is what the leadership in D.C. wants, the stimulus checks aren’t just about hose unemployed, it’s about getting people spending and keeping businesses afloat.   In theory, it could help some who would be unemployed or underemployed as a result of covid, or at least their employers.   Reality is a different story for many.   

     

    I missed no in front of issue when I typed that. 

  10. 2 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

    how many is that?

    Varies from plant to plant. For example JBS beef in Grand Island has about 800 positives out 3600 workers so far. Tyson in Dakota City is about 400 so far out of 4000. Smithfield in Crete is about 150 of 2000 so far. Crete was announced as to be idled yesterday, but they reversed course and are going to run half days now, which I don't know what good that will do, but I suppose now that their ordered to do something that's something. The general reaction of the meat industry sees this more as the gov't providing a liability shield for the packers, than actually doing anything constructive as far as restoring production. 

  11. So the cattle runs slid to 76K today, with yesterday revised down from 81K to 77K which is a new low for this outbreak, hogs fell to 283K from 303K yesterday(revised down from 313K) both are now closing in on 60% of capacity. I was hoping we could get back above 90K and 350K week, but it's going to take a couple of big reopenings and no further losses. We will see if the executive order does much, but this is a labor issue, and unless they want to make them work at gun point, it's going to stay tough sledding for awhile. Best case is probably that we got 25-50% runs out of some of the closed plants next week. 

    • Like 3
  12. For your AM livestock update, fresh beef values continue to surge as choice moves past $325, and select past $315, fresh pork is just short of $88, with everything up but hams. Hog futures have continued to surge as the fund money angles towards putting ready hogs down, and better value on June contract and out, while cattle futures remain flat, but will probably see short covering whenever we can start ramping packers back up now that we've defended the lows, but the April contract in delivery could be real squirrelly with what cash has traded being well above the board and needing to converge.  

    • Like 3
  13. 6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Just want to say I appreciate the continuous updates on the animal slaughter markets even if most don’t. Thanks for teaching me something I didn’t know. 

    It’s my one time to shine during this, and given the terrible takes I see on subject(especially on Texags, who should have somebody who knows better for fucks sake) I feel like the people here should know what’s going on. 

    • Like 9
  14. 16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

    Oh I agree, and I hope you don't think I'm downplaying the seriousness of this. I'm saying hog and chicken farmers are fooked.  Hog guys maybe twice.  You gotta think they're backing down their feeder pig production, and that might lead to pig supply problems late this year.

    The only good thing for a lot of those guys is that they don’t own the pigs or chickens anymore. I’d be sweating bullets if I was in the Pipestone or Maschoff systems though. My Uncle that finally quit farrow to finish in 2018 has to feel pretty good right now especially since Crete is just down the road.(Ex-Farmland Plant that my Grandpa helped place there with all of the co-op stuff he did)

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