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Royalfan5

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Posts posted by Royalfan5

  1. 19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

    Aren’t they at like 2 deaths/>1000 cases between the worthington and smithfield breakouts? Not to say 2 is great news but in a data driven society we’re in, it gives us a good IFR. Granted I’m sure most employees are middle aged or younger.

    Something like that. The biggest thing for this is guys can’t put forth the physical effort to keep up with pace while sick, and there’s not enough spare workers to fill the needed gap. The good news is the burned through plants will probably have herd immunity 

  2. 15 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

    I'd bid out on animals in lieu of wasting them - buy a whole pig, chickens, etc. and get a cheap freezer.  Not sure it's a viable market, but I'd love to see it happen.  I know lots of guys that would buy 1/2 or 1/4 cow and process it themselves.  

    We’re short 40k kill on cattle a day, and 150k a day on hogs. A lot guts might like to do that but it’s not going to make any sort of difference 

  3. 14 minutes ago, Parliament said:


     

     


    Cattle are a bit easier because supply chain from calf to hamburger isn't as specific as hogs and chickens. They're euthanizing chickens in Minnesota already. Hogs will soon be getting it too.

     

    Right, but it’s still going to lead to weirdness. I’ve got guys grassing steers until July that should be placed now, and given that March was the lowest placements ever, and April will probably break that, leverage is going to flip hard on the packers at some point. Best thing pork and chicken can do is put down the ready animals and stick in a hole, that way stuff doesn’t get too fucked on the backend. 

  4. 3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

    SD Governor says they'll reopen this week.

    North Dakota gonna announce their plans to lift the quarantine tomorrow.

    They need to open this week or were super fucked on hogs in the western corn belt. JBS Worthing needs to come back too before we lose Madison too. On the cattle front, Tyson is parking ready cattle in one my coworkers family’s feed lot by Dakota City, that should have been going to Joslin, Illinois instead ahead of their supposed restart later this week.

  5. 4 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

    No idea how processing plants are laid out and staffed, but I image they are not spacing people out 6' from one another.  I have seen other assembly lines (different industry) space the employees out 6'  and this will cut throughput, but keep the employees somewhat safer and I have not seen the drastic levels of infection.

    They're pretty well shoulder to shoulder. Not really another way to do it.

  6. 7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

    A JBS beef plant in Wisconsin and a Smithfield pork plant in Nebraska are going on shutdown.  However, it sounds like the Sioux Falls pork plant will restart this week.

    Smithfield hasn't shut Crete down yet, they pulled two in Illinois instead. Tyson-Dakota City is still supposed supposed to restart this week, and JBS in Grand Island is supposed have turned the corner. I'd just Tyson in Madison will go down before Smithfield in Crete does. 

  7. 13 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    How do these prices roughly convert into prices for cuts of meat we would be familiar with? Ribeye, brisket, pork tenderloin, etc?  Is there any way to put this in context?  If I have to pay $9.99 a lb for a choice brisket it will be a good thing everyone is wearing masks because I may hold up an HEB. 

    https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2452.pdf The USDA breaks it up by the main cuts and the values are figured on 100lb basis on the link there. 

    Same for pork https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2496.pdf

     

  8. For your AM livestock update, choice beef blew through the $300 barrier for the first time to 307.75, and select is just below $295, fresh pork moved above $80 for the first time since this got started with bellies leading but some pressure in ham and picnics. Tyson continues to fuck up at a variety of plants and that might be the biggest pinch point at the moment. 

    • Like 4
  9. 8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Serious question as I’ve never had a family in a nursing home:

    does anyone check out of nursing homes? Or is this strictly a place where you go for care until such time as you die?  What’s a typical stay in a nursing home run (ie how long is the average person in there?) 

    I think a few people check out when recovering from something like a broken hip or something like that, but otherwise not really. One of my grandfathers went in after he lost his first leg to diabetes, and subsequently lost his other. He was in for about 8 years, my other Grandfather went in with Parkinson’s, heart failure, macular degeneration, diabetes, and bladder cancer, he lasted 6 weeks, but that’s more of a testament to my grandmother’s stubbornness and home health aides. My other grandmother spent about 18 months in with increasing dementia before passing. 

    • Like 1
  10. 10 minutes ago, Native Horn said:

    Had never heard of Runza until this thread.  Checked out the menu - I say GOTDAMN, the Spicy Jack Burger looks great.

    The burgers are better than the Runzas. They’ve got really good crinkle cut fries too. That being said the Runzas are still good just not quite them same if you grew up around Germans from Russia 

  11. 1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    I might risk COVID for some frings and a burger or a cheese runza from Runza.

    Maybe, but it is being funded by outsiders, may also be picking up the Trump Rally caravaners not to mention the roving right wing groups like the Proud Boys, etc. So, the violence may be a potential, but if I understand correctly, there are a number of people who are not from the areas where the protests are occurring.

    We still have friends back in Wisconsin, I need to reach out to them and see what's up. We haven't talked since Christmas.

    The Runza Drive thrus never closed. Had Swiss cheese mushroom runza and fries with French onion dip last night 

  12. 9 minutes ago, Tuco said:

    So Pete Ricketts just announced they are reopening restaurants in Nebraska at 50% capacity on May 4.  Nebraska's numbers are still accelerating and our tests/capita are one of the lowest (40th/50 states) in the country.  I'm not thrilled. 

    Also churches with no offering or communion and family groups 6 feet apart, and hair places with masks + elective surgeries 

  13. One more livestock note the monthly cattle on feed report had the lightest placements of feeders on record showing the backing up in that part of the chain even as well pulled fats forward last month. That placement number will likely only last one month which will leave a hole in ready cattle this fall in all likelyhood. Same thing is happening in hogs but we don't get another report on them until June. 

    • Like 1
  14. For your livestock update cattle slaughter rates stayed steady, off 1K from yesterday with Tyson temporarily stopping a plant in Washington for test, and work that'll restart in Dakota City on Monday. Beef prices hit new highs on the morning run, but leveled off a bit. If plants start coming back on Monday as advertised it should goose beef production pretty good.

    Hog slaughter runs were up about 12K from yesterday, and we are at about 83% of last year's runs right now. Fresh pork worked higher but still below the spike highs which might hold if we can get back over 415K or so by the first part of the week. 

     

    • Like 5
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