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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. Some folks just can't pass up an opportunity to tell white folks they should be scared
  2. For your livestock update, cattle posted the second day in a row above 100K, with a good Saturday run week could be close to year ago levels which if sustained will start to pull cattle ahead and bring weights down helping feeders out. Boxed beef remains on a gentle decline with improved movement. Hogs failed to top 400K today, with the pace of recovery slowing down a bit, but fresh pork is popping back onto the spot market which is a good sign, and the amount of euthanized hogs may keep numbers down into summer, which could put a 425K number pretty close to the amount of ready hogs and really juice that cash market later on. Also China took a large amount of pork shipments last week, but canceled some purchases at the highs.
  3. I saw that, but the offtake rates of meat vs. fake meat when the stores got hit tells another story.
  4. For your livestock update, cattle packing runs topped 100K for the first time in 3 weeks or so, and continuing to close the gap on capacity. Beef prices found a bit of a bid, which is normal with Memorial Day coming up, but the return to normal should keep things stair stepping down. Hogs just missed cracking 400K today, with pork prices rebounding as well as we see ham restocking push the cutout up, but belly prices are basically back to normal.
  5. For your livestock update, packer runs continue to rise with cattle nearing 85% of capacity, and hogs about 83%, fresh pork continues to edge lower, but remains about 30% ahead of normal, fresh beef faded as well but looks to be getting into its plateau and roughly 80% ahead of normal for this time of year. At the pace we are recovering packer capacity, the first full week of June should have us back to 100% or so.
  6. For your livestock update, packing runs continue to edge higher with cattle almost to 100K a day vs. 120K needed from a low of 72K, hogs are back to 375K vs 470K needed, fresh pork values edged lower today but remain pretty elevated, beef prices were down pretty sharply this morning but remain near double normal, but certain cuts are getting discounted now as retailers restock depleted supplies.
  7. Noted Civility Scold Ben Sasse covered himself in glory with his covid commencement speech https://www.omaha.com/news/state_and_regional/watch-now-sasse-ridicules-people-named-jeremy-trying-to-joke-rips-thugs-in-china-in/article_115b3a24-e69d-5e47-8e4f-8730652bd785.html
  8. It was more my dad’s thing but you still have to trot it out from time to time
  9. I come from a line of dairymen and hog guys for the most part, the hat habit doesn’t get formed that way, although exceptions were made for driving around in Firebirds
  10. Minus the hat you’re not super far off, current Corona beard notwithstanding
  11. On a local to me note for comparison, Lancaster Co. Nebraska, where Lincoln is went from 300 positives last week to 188 this week, with 172 two weeks ago. The positive rate dropped from 14% to 7% this week from the two weeks before. The 11th was the first day of reopening here. That being said there’s been some fuckery with the packing plant outbreaks, just across the county line at the Smithfield plant in Crete, and the satellite ham plant in Lincoln
  12. For your livestock update, packer runs for cattle and hogs were better, with bigger Saturday runs expected, more improvement should come next week. Pork values have plateaued but have seen good support with restocking and the catch up of skilled labor in fabricating. Beef values are about 10% below the peak, with a plateau likely coming soon in the 380 to 410 range.
  13. For your livestock update, boxed beef continued to fade a bit, and packer runs were steady to slightly higher, pork spiked to new highs suddenly this AM, but packer runs continued to increase. The pork spike is likely tied to actual available supplies on the spot market and restocking with some things available again, spot beef is hitting the market as well which should ease the hamburger price spike.
  14. The afternoon beef price update finally showed trade moving lower, so I think the high should be in there, hogs prices are holding near the highs still but the worst should be past now.
  15. For your daily livestock update, pork prices continue to flatten out, and we are adding about 10K per day to our packer runs. If we can recover to over 400K by next week it should stop the euthanizing of hogs, and get cutout values back inline with normal, bellies are flattening out as well. We got cattle runs back over 90K for the first time in a couple weeks, if we can get over 100K next week, we will stop the slowing down of ready cattle for the most part. Beef values are holding the peak, but not ready to drop a ton yet.
  16. https://www.omaha.com/news/local/fewer-nebraska-voters-turned-up-at-the-polls-but-more-than-usual-voted-in-tuesdays/article_ca4e0646-d57c-5e04-9409-c7902768d579.html#1 So in how Covid-19 effects democracy story. It’s Nebraska’s primary today. Mail in ballots are going to handily except last times total turnout by themselves. (Story says 360k, last update had it up to 391k) The only contested primaries are on the Democratic side in a heavily blue state. (Except state senate with is officially non-partisan). In person voting will wrap up at 8, but the numbers at the end of this should show if two of the electoral votes for Nebraska are in play as Omaha has went blue before, and if Lincoln is in play, Omaha’s probably a lock for blue.
  17. Depends if you already have the ground beef. I think we will see a step up in grinding so it should improve in availablilty and price, just might be more short oddball cuts that get ground
  18. For your afternoon livestock update, fresh pork declined , and belly values collapsed $50, with packer runs improving again. If the packers improve tomorrow and pork pulls back again it should confirm a high with elevated values likely to remain for awhile. Beef edged higher on choice with select off a bit with more packer improvement. The beef peak is likely very close as well.
  19. For your AM livestock update, pork prices edged higher, with bellies off about 10 bucks, with reports of fresh pork being available on the spot market for retailers for the first time in a couple week with plant reopenings going smoothly so far. Choice beef surged higher again, but select was flatter as we see the choice select spread widen, which is too be expected with the packing plant games going on, with Kansas cash sales 15 better than Texas.(Usually they are within a buck of each other) We will see what the packer runs say this afternoon, which is the biggest key right now.
  20. They're building the animal biodefense lab right next to Bill Snyder Family Stadium too.
  21. Livestock runs continue to improve, cattle are up about 12-15% on the week, and about 78% of normal now, hogs are about 30% ahead week on week, and about 75% of normal as well. We look to be tracking to be back towards 85% of capacity by the end of the week, which should probably get fresh beef and pork trending a little lower in the stores next week assuming the gov't purchase program doesn't screw things up. Milk futures continue to climb as well as the dairy processors have adjusted better/not seen the slow down the packers had, mostly because it's much much less shoulder to shoulder labor.
  22. For your AM livestock update, fresh pork stayed just below the highs, bellies are now nearly 5 times the April low, but the other cuts are flattening out pretty good. Beef made a new high on choice values, but select was slightly lower. We are supposed to have 5 pork plants restart today, but we will see when we get the inspections numbers this afternoon. The gov't is supposed to start their food bank buying this week, so the program announced at the lows in values to help producers will end up profiting packers exclusively with buying at the high, while producers still suffer from the lack of capacity.
  23. https://www.omaha.com/news/state_and_regional/im-scared-to-return-nebraska-meatpacking-workers-and-their-families-speak-out/article_d9d8c573-a1f9-5f23-b480-c20bb0ba3ab0.html#1 This is a pretty decent primer on the happenings inside the packing plants as they turn into hot spots.
  24. For your afternoon livestock update, cattle runs held steady at 85K, with a slightly smaller Saturday run expected but we made good progress there this week. Unless there is a late surprise today or Monday it looks like the boxed beef high is pretty close to being in. Packers paid up this week, so I think it is a combination of progress in slowing cattle on feed down, and packers wanting to keep good will with feedlots and the DOJ for setting formula prices. (I talked to Bloomberg News about that today, you can look under their ag news later today for more discussion there if you want. Mostly I just want to name drop that Bloomberg uses me as a source) Hogs improved more, and had yesterday's run revised higher, pork prices should stay sideways, but the belly run should be easing back soon. Two big plants are supposed to be back next week, which could help a lot. The big question will be how much of a hole this will leave on the backend, which could make things squirrely late in the year.
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