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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. So livestock slaughter runs continued to decline with cattle down to 72K, and yesterday was revised 4K lower to 72K, and hogs were down 12K to 271K, so we are about to 60% on cattle run rates, and almost 50% on hogs. So no instant impact from the defense production act, it does sound like worker turn out is starting to improve which should start to show some improvement soon.
  2. So for your morning livestock update, fresh pork values were slightly lower with loins dropping off sharply. I'd anticipate the PM report shows gains as the loins looks fluky. Beef prices continued to skyrocket, with choice almost to $350, and showing no signs of a peak yet. I'd guess we will at least test 375 there.
  3. I have issue with the stimulus check, and wouldn’t have an issue with unemployment matching prior pay, but giving an effective raise To stay home isn’t a great incentive to help phase back in.
  4. Beef finished the days on new highs again, moving past $330, with pork still holding below $90. The number of boxed beef loads was 99, so were off about 10% from last week which isn't as much as the run rates has went down, likely reflecting some heavier animals with the back up, which is a least at little offset, we should be seeing the same in hogs too.
  5. So on the putting animals down front, a client that farrows for Smithfield said they told him that they won't take any hogs with flaws for sure to finish out of the current groups by mid-May, so that he probably out to start shooting the ones that won't make weight now so he doesn't have to do it at the last minute.
  6. Varies from plant to plant. For example JBS beef in Grand Island has about 800 positives out 3600 workers so far. Tyson in Dakota City is about 400 so far out of 4000. Smithfield in Crete is about 150 of 2000 so far. Crete was announced as to be idled yesterday, but they reversed course and are going to run half days now, which I don't know what good that will do, but I suppose now that their ordered to do something that's something. The general reaction of the meat industry sees this more as the gov't providing a liability shield for the packers, than actually doing anything constructive as far as restoring production.
  7. So the cattle runs slid to 76K today, with yesterday revised down from 81K to 77K which is a new low for this outbreak, hogs fell to 283K from 303K yesterday(revised down from 313K) both are now closing in on 60% of capacity. I was hoping we could get back above 90K and 350K week, but it's going to take a couple of big reopenings and no further losses. We will see if the executive order does much, but this is a labor issue, and unless they want to make them work at gun point, it's going to stay tough sledding for awhile. Best case is probably that we got 25-50% runs out of some of the closed plants next week.
  8. It's cool and damp, and everybody works shoulder to shoulder, and go home to multi-family living situations.
  9. Rumor is that the President is going to invoke the defense production act to force the packing plants open. I don't know how were are going to do that with the amount of sick workers in the idled plants, but we'll find out.
  10. For your AM livestock update, fresh beef values continue to surge as choice moves past $325, and select past $315, fresh pork is just short of $88, with everything up but hams. Hog futures have continued to surge as the fund money angles towards putting ready hogs down, and better value on June contract and out, while cattle futures remain flat, but will probably see short covering whenever we can start ramping packers back up now that we've defended the lows, but the April contract in delivery could be real squirrelly with what cash has traded being well above the board and needing to converge.
  11. It’s my one time to shine during this, and given the terrible takes I see on subject(especially on Texags, who should have somebody who knows better for fucks sake) I feel like the people here should know what’s going on.
  12. The only good thing for a lot of those guys is that they don’t own the pigs or chickens anymore. I’d be sweating bullets if I was in the Pipestone or Maschoff systems though. My Uncle that finally quit farrow to finish in 2018 has to feel pretty good right now especially since Crete is just down the road.(Ex-Farmland Plant that my Grandpa helped place there with all of the co-op stuff he did)
  13. Something like that. The biggest thing for this is guys can’t put forth the physical effort to keep up with pace while sick, and there’s not enough spare workers to fill the needed gap. The good news is the burned through plants will probably have herd immunity
  14. We’re short 40k kill on cattle a day, and 150k a day on hogs. A lot guts might like to do that but it’s not going to make any sort of difference
  15. Right, but it’s still going to lead to weirdness. I’ve got guys grassing steers until July that should be placed now, and given that March was the lowest placements ever, and April will probably break that, leverage is going to flip hard on the packers at some point. Best thing pork and chicken can do is put down the ready animals and stick in a hole, that way stuff doesn’t get too fucked on the backend.
  16. They need to open this week or were super fucked on hogs in the western corn belt. JBS Worthing needs to come back too before we lose Madison too. On the cattle front, Tyson is parking ready cattle in one my coworkers family’s feed lot by Dakota City, that should have been going to Joslin, Illinois instead ahead of their supposed restart later this week.
  17. Now it turns out that maybe it’s not closing in Crete, the mayor says it is, the Union head says they ain’t told him shit, and Smithfield is keeping quiet right now.
  18. And I was wrong Smithfield pulled the plug on Crete before Tyson did on Madison so we keep shedding pork capacities faster than I hoped. If the can get Sioux Falls up soon it’ll be a big relief
  19. They're pretty well shoulder to shoulder. Not really another way to do it.
  20. Smithfield hasn't shut Crete down yet, they pulled two in Illinois instead. Tyson-Dakota City is still supposed supposed to restart this week, and JBS in Grand Island is supposed have turned the corner. I'd just Tyson in Madison will go down before Smithfield in Crete does.
  21. Haven't checked, but probably hitting record levels like everything else.
  22. So on the afternoon livestock front, cattle packing plant runs were down 5K week on week, so we are killing about 40K less a day than we need to, some of the plants that were supposed to be back today were delayed until later in the week, hogs were down about 43K from last week, and about 150K less than we need to.
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