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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. On a meat note, beef prices are now within $5 of the recent spike high, #hogs with $13, with a big jump in bellies today. JBS has 20K a day plant down in Minnesota now for hogs, and it looks like we will be close to 70% capacity on runs to start the week. Short term there still shouldn't be major issues with meat supply, it's the back end where it will get wild especially on hogs because backed up cattle can be slowed down on gain, and hogs will probably have to be gassed or shot if they can't find processor space, and that will leave a hole this fall.
  2. There not as bad. If it gets into a plant it's bad news, but some plants haven't been hit at all so far like Smithfield in Crete, and Cargill in Schuyler
  3. Well my point is that it's going to rip through those super fast which we creates a big population of spreads super fast, and you tie that to locals not taking it seriously it'll blow up. The Plants are churches on steroids when it comes to spreading, and you have a ton of multi-generational homes among the plant workers. If you don't have the plants, you wouldn't have near the problems, you'd look more like Gage County where it got into the nursing home in Adams, but not near the community spread.
  4. It's the packing plants blowing up in those two counties, same with Dawson
  5. I think they're trying to. The big spike day was when a multigenerational household all tested positive, and it seems like the bulk that isn't the same house hold, is either 20 year olds or 60 year olds
  6. So the effects of this on voting coming forward, based on mail in requests so far for Next months primary in Nebraska turnout will blow away a normal primary, and there ain’t shit on the ballot this year except Democratic primary’s, which are usually irrelevant here.
  7. For a comparison sake, the city of Lincoln which around 285k, the gov’t says we can test 150 per day with 2 day turnaround, and that about 60-65 a day have been turning up for testing. Been averaging about 4-5 positives a day.
  8. That last sentence is why it’s going apeshit in packing plants
  9. One side note to all the meat packing stuff, Cargill’s unionized plants have been solidly kicking everyone else’s ass on production and keeping workers healthier so far.
  10. https://www.omaha.com/news/crime/feds-nebraska-pharmacist-virginia-drug-dealer-plotted-to-blow-up-rival-pharmacy-in-auburn/article_1639dc7f-55b9-545f-ba2a-35770ac28389.html Pill slinger in small SE Nebraska town tries to hire guy off the “dark web” to blow up the other pharmacy in town because he assumes that he will be able to claim the business to disguise the amount of opioids he had going out the back door, and it goes comically wrong
  11. Pork values climbed again today, so we've got the cutout back to $60, recent high was $80 so we're not seeing extraordinary numbers at this point there. Cattle values were up 3 bucks, and about 15% on the week, but we're still about 15% off the recent high.
  12. For your daily livestock update, cattle runs slipped a little to about 75% of capacity, but we are expected to see about 40% run tomorrow on overtime shifts, hogs slipped to about 80%, but about a 45% run tomorrow to make up some difference. Cash values of processed meat weren't reported due to USDA tech issues.
  13. For your daily livestock update. Cattle slaughter held steady around 80% capacity with beef values continuing their rally, we are about 5% below the recent high there, and not out of line for normal this time of year. Hogs stayed steady around 85% capacity, with pork values up solidly this AM, but well off the recent highs with bellies leading. CDC is in Sioux Falls trying to help Smithfield get going again.
  14. One last bit on the meat for today, pork cutout values were slightly lower with belly values down the most of anything, beef values were up decently, but still well of the recent high. If we can get some of the shackle space back next week, the current losses should be offset for the most part with heavier carcass weights.
  15. Especially when people have seen empty coolers recently in the first wave of panic buying.
  16. There are disruptions because we aren't running the plants hard enough to kill the amount of animals that need to be, so animals are backing up and less meat is being processed on a daily basis. We came into this with very burdensome stocks of meat, especially of pork so we have a lot of runway on that end. The company that is in the crosshairs for having the largest plant go do has a lot of incentive to scream about disruptions to get help. The meat chain isn't well understood by the general public or the media, and lends itself to a lot of stories like this. I get called by Bloomberg and Reuters fairly often to talk about meat stuff, and the reporters just aren't very well versed in the stuff, so a lot can get lost in translation in these stories too.
  17. It's mostly the packing plant blowing that up, and a large packing plant related birthday party that spread it from JBSwift in GI, Lovett's in Hastings, and now Tyson in Lexington. Cold conditions and shoulder to shoulder in the plant is the accelarant.
  18. Shouldn't be for now. Assuming we can keep plants running at these levels we won't back up too bad, and the biggest thing will be re-orienting food service into retail channels for the time being. In Nebraska, they're now allowing restaurants to sell food out of storage as groceries to help the stranded food too.
  19. For your livestock update, cattle packing plants fairly level with yesterday around 80% of capacity with Cargill cutting a shift in Colorado on top of the other issues. Hogs were inline with yesterday at about 85% of capacity, so we are holding up much better after the big down day on Monday. Beef values are still moving higher, while pork has remained pretty flat.
  20. We are still swamped with pork to the point of pork working into export channels for the cost of packaging. We rebounded sharply slaughter runs yesterday as well, even with that plant down.
  21. I’m much more interested in knowing if we are going do anything useful for public health with the money we’re not sending the WHO.
  22. On a bacon note, belly values are up 16 bucks over the last 5 days, but remain very cheap for this time of year. The rebound in run rates was good news today, but will need to hold for the next few days to make everyone feel better. My hunch is that some of the slowdown is semi-wild cat strikes, and the packers are going have open their wallets to keep it going.
  23. Nebraska having an outlet mall attempt to re-open next week. https://www.omaha.com/money/owner-of-nebraska-crossing-outlets-plans-to-reopen-mall-this-month-amid-pandemic/article_f603e94f-87db-585b-8933-fd56b99a6865.html
  24. So on the livestock worries front, Cattle slaughter jumped from 70% of capacity to close to 80% today, hogs from 60% to about 85%, so decent progress on that front.
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