BevoAbyss

For the Cotton Bowl, if Fred had come out of halftime with Morschell as QB the entire 2nd half, we would have won the game scoring at least one TD and one FG or two FGs. Wouldn't have been pretty, but Georgia was 100% jacked up to stop Rick. 15 to 10 or 16 to 10 final would have given us another NC. Y'all are both correct. Dredging up some bad Longhorn memories. Man, that was a massively bungled game: 2 missed FGs, 2 INTs, 4 fumbles (2 lost), muffed punt, and Fred's overall offensive conservativism and indecisiveness. McIvor lit up the Aggies (45-13), but was wildly inaccurate in the Cotton Bowl (8 for 26). If Moerschell plays QB in the second half, UT wins. Moerschell was clutch. Watched that game on a small portable TV at the furniture store (long out of business) where I worked part-time that year. Since my UT girlfriend was in California visiting her parents, after work I think I wandered into to Chuy's on Barton Springs and drowned my sorrows in margaritas and fajitas. Haven't lived in Austin 30 years, anyone know if that Chuy's is still there?

As I have said elsewhere: the goal for Abbott, MAGA, and the GQP is a violent, fascist, evangelical theocracy. This has been the goal since Reagan and Falwell laid the foundations in the 1980s. Everything else is a smoke screen, always has been. The aim is overturn godless secularism: to create an America ruled by the sacred scrolls. It's happening right before our eyes in the Lone State State and America, experiencing a massive, long-term intellectual collapse among 40-45% (or more) of the citizens/voters. We see the outright celebration of lies, idiocy, conspiracy, and anti-science on epic scales, a culture going backward by decades and centuries. Hell, we are still watching these no-mask, no vaxx idiots enable a medieval-style mass death via Covid. Just look at Abbott, Paxton, Cruz, and their legions of hateful, ignorant fans/voters. Apparently, most Texas voters are okay with fascism and mass death (92,000 Texans dead from Covid). Their votes show that. Beto never had a chance against Abbott. The elephant in the room is not mere "extremism," it is fascism and theocracy, at least according to any dictionary not tossed out of the library of a Texas high school.

Don't forget this book from around the turn of the millennium. Not exactly Sovereign Citizen, more like Sovereign Capitalist. -- The book has had a couple of different subtitles, the latest with "Information Age" promises of technological sovereignty beyond the nation-state (note: the new intro by Peter Thiel). Sovereign Citizen and Sovereign Capitalist (and Sovereign Crypto) are all from the same general utopian dream born of 1960s libertarian philosophy, cyber-utopians of the 1980s-1990s, and the rise of the internet.

Saw these bands many times in Austin and Dallas, too (if my memory is correct). Club Foot was great for new wave/electronic music, many groovy new wave women wearing 80s-style ankle boots. Hole in the Wall for drinks and shooting pool on week nights when you blew off going to the library.

For MAGA-GQP, isn't a violent society their real goal? Of course, they will deny it. Yet, it's no less true. I'll be even more precise—ultraviolence is their ultimate social and existential goal. A terrorized and militarized society, armed to the teeth, living in fear and existential dread. That's the Fox News playbook. Anthony Burgess and Stanley Kubrick saw the ultraviolence coming in A Clockwork Orange. What else are these random mass shootings other than extreme ultraviolence? Schools, grocery stores, night clubs, movie theaters, college campuses, military bases, fast food restaurants, and many other locations — all subject to random, senseless, mass shootings. Hell, the American mass shootings far exceed the ultraviolence in Burgess’s novel and Kubrick's film As described by Burgess, “ultraviolence” is the random, senseless, excessive, and unjustified violence that terrorizes a neighborhood, a city, a society, a nation. Teen gang leader Alex and the “droogs” unleash ultraviolence (fights, beatings, rapes, murders, mayhem, and general chaos) at random times upon random people — passersby, shop owners, people at home, couples in remote cottages, and so on. Ultraviolence is all kinds of acts of violence (large and small) to instill fear and terror. Though some droogs are quick-witted and fast with the insults, they are little more than deranged brutes and angry bullies who enjoy deploying random violence to terrorize those they outnumber or those who are weaker victims. In the novel, droogs also become police officers and ascend to other positions of authority in a violent future with failed education and mental health systems, all powered by collapsed systems of meaning and morality. America is like A Clockwork Orange on steroids. Uvalde, El Paso, and mass shootings galore. Blowing up power stations, burning donut shops, the attempted violent coup d’etat on January 6, overturning Roe, and even anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers unleashing microscopic Covid pathogens in public spaces to violently invade others lungs. These are some of the many obvious and subtle forms of ultraviolence being unleashed in a dystopian America, apparently collapsing into a fascist future. What else are all those AR-15s for? Protection? Or to impose the fascist theocracy once valid elections are no longer obeyed? A society living in existential fear is a society that turns to sacred scrolls for answers, turns to QAnon to connect the dots, turns to Inquisitions to defend their "truth" and "morality," turns to killing machines to feel strong and impose their will—and turns to authoritarian leaders to worship amid the madness. There is no end in sight for ultraviolence or the overall madness. The Texas government's response to Uvalde showed that.

Let’s momentarily interrupt football philosophers with some philosophy on football. The following explains Jones and the Cowboys being worth $5 billion and hugely popular, despite not winning anything important for over 25 years. Jones and the Cowboys are the champs of “hyperreality,” the term coined in the 1980s by French philosopher Jean Baudrillard to describe key features of our 24/7 mediated world. — If you have seen The Matrix, then you have seen a copy of Baudrillard’s most famous book, Simulacra and Simulation. Early in the film, Neo has it on a bookshelf and opens it to retrieve a some computer disks for the dude and hot chick who knocked on his door. “Knock, knock, knock…” “Hyperreality” is where the signs and symbols of the real have replaced the real, thus creating an artificial reality that consumers, users, fans, and followers consider superior to the real empirical reality. Hyperreality is filled with "simulacra," copies that have replaced the originals, now no longer present, needed, or perhaps even desired. In hyperreality, Jones can swagger around, preening and pretending to be a “winner” and still make bank. Of course, he is a winner at the bank, not on the field. Keep in mind, hyperreality is not merely a “fake reality,” for it exists in many forms in our world: theme parks, hotels in Las Vegas, football stadia, virtual reality, and video games; even much of social media and conspiracy theory can be understood in terms of hyperreality. To paraphrase Baudrillard, hyperreality is more real than real, more true than true, more beautiful than beautiful. Why else gaze at screens all day? In effect, the NFL is one giant hyperreality. Of course, the Cowboys are simulacra for the real cowboys—who once existed and became part of American mythology—no longer present in industrialized cities like Dallas. Of course, there are still many dudes wearing big cowboy hats, big belt buckles, and big boots and driving big trucks in the big cities of the big state of Texas (and America), but they are not real cowboys. The cowboy is one of the biggest myths in American pop culture. (And "Old Gringo" is the coolest brand of Cowboy boot.) Similarly, Jones and the Cowboys are also simulacra of winners, with all the mythic signs and symbols of winning, without winning any titles for over 25 years. Famed lone star on the helmet, swank futuristic stadium, fawning media—and loyal fans watching games on TV and dropping big bucks at the games and for caps/jerseys. For the Cowboys, winning the Super Bowl is well in the past, a feat no longer present or even possible with Jones at the helm. Nevertheless, the Cowboys are now worth over $5 billion, making it the most valuable sports franchise in the world. In 1989, Jones purchased the Cowboys for $140 million, which is the equivalent of about $330 million in 2022. As we all know, the Cowboys won three more Super Bowls by 1996, primarily because Jimmy Johnson built a powerhouse team. Jones and Switzer got lucky. Since then, the Cowboys have won two playoff games and have not sniffed a Super Bowl. Of course, Jones has been the owner and general manager the entire time. Yet, despite such a colossal failure, the Cowboys franchise has skyrocketed in value all the way to the top of the sports world. The mere fact that all this has happened with a dressed up Arkansas hillbilly billionaire running the show in Big D pretty much proves the accuracy of Baudrillard's insights. TL/DR: Jerry Jones is one of the kings of The Matrix. As Morpheus said: "Welcome to the desert of the real."

My name's not BevoAbyss for nothing!

The GOP and Religious Right have been attacking science on ever-more fronts over the past 40-50 years, perhaps since the Apollo moon landing. Since the Reagan-Falwell marriage of Republicans and religion, the long-term goal has always been a fascist theocracy to rule America. Always. Everything else is a smoke screen. That's why, as troph made clear, the GOP and theocrats want (evidence-free) creationism on equal intellectual standing with evolution and the 13.75 billion year evolution of the observable universe, for which there exists massive, overwhelming evidence. (Don't forget the "intelligent design" nonsense of the 1990s.) To equate any creationist claims and beliefs with the empirical evidence of evolution and the expansion of the universe is laughable ... and dangerous. To achieve the theocracy, American intellectual standards must crater and collapse, which is happening right before our eyes. Doublethink is running amok across America (But what about ...). This leaves the field open for creationism and conspiracy theory, which are essentially two sides of the same coin that pretend to make sense of the world. There is no way to satisfy a MAGA, creationist, or conspiracy theorist with logic or evidence. They both believe all-knowing unseen hidden forces control the world (God, the Devil, Communists, the Trilateral Commission, etc.). All that matter are the sacred scrolls, from Bible passages to QAnon drops. All that's left are myths, lies, and violence, such as Bible-thumping patriots armed to the teeth, election conspiracies, and the attempted coup on January 6. The list goes on: the attacks on people of color, women's reproductive rights, and LGBTQ+ community are straight out of the fascist theocrat playbook. I'll say it again, the GOP goal is a fascist theocracy. To deny and not confront that fact is dangerous. That's why American democracy is in deep deep trouble.

Since Reagan and Falwell merged religion (fundamentalist, evangelical) with the Republican Party in the 1980s, the long-term goal of the GOP and Religious Right has always been a fascist theocracy. Always. Just look at the makeup of the Supreme Court. Look at the theocratic ideology that the GOP uses to rule Texas. (Of course, the GOP apologists and true believers will remain in denial.)

To say this game was BIG is an understatement. It was freaking EPIC. One of the biggest in all college FB history. -- ABC moving the game to the last week on the chance that #1 and #2 would be the match-up. The prototype for BCS play-off games. No other competing games on TV, no cable, no internet, no streaming. Cold weather over much of America. Massive national TV audience, dwarfing UT-USC. Nielsen rating of 52, with an even higher share of TVs turned on. -- The Texas wishbone on 18-game winning streak, Arkansas at 14 games (I think). -- I was a little kid (now with PhD UT degree), but my dad was a UT alum and we watched the game on new color TV. The entire DFW suburban neighborhood was stoked, especially since Arkansas transplants lived down the street, along with Catholics from Boston who were Notre Dame fans. -- Later in life, I met older UT alum who told me this: A lunch of UT dorms had low ceilings and when Peschel caught the pass, many jumped up raising their arms and accidentally punched holes in the ceilings. True or not, I don't know. -- If I recall, the Street-Peschel pass was named Play-of-the-Decade by some college FB media people. -- Nixon showing up and correctly predicting Texas would win during half-time interview. -- Amazing that Royal and Street pulled out the win, despite 6 turnovers!

Same thing was said about Mackovic after McWilliams. Same thing was said about Herman after Strong. Keep on dreamin'. Maybe it will come true. I hope it does. Correct.

I never said we should go back 25+ years. I said that Sark is Mackovic 2.0 or worse (McWilliams). Supposed offensive whiz, great wins, inexplicable losses, baffling game plans, and so on. Watching the last two years is like going back 25-30 years. And we will repeat that era all over again for the next few years.

Always great to beat Baylor. Always. Especially with the 4th quarter running game featuring Bijan. Why did it take so long to come up with that plan? But, for those who attended UT in late 1980s-early 1990s, we have seen this before. — 13-11 after two years suggests Sark will end up somewhere between Mackovic (best-case scenario) and McWilliams (worst-case). This season has a total Mackovic feel: great victories and inexplicable, bumbling losses. Mackovic was supposed to be offense whiz. — Sark has 3 more wins than last season, but only 1 more than Herman’s last season. So the longer-term improvement is not 3 wins, but 1 win across two years. Almost exactly like Mackovic following McWilliams. — Sark has 5 wins and 8 wins, which averages to 6.5 per year, which rounds to 7. As in 7-Win-Steve. The history repeats because we ignore it and do the same thing again ... and again ... and again. All while hoping for the best despite what is right before our eyes. Feel free to ignore or slam me with my references to actual Texas football history.

Anyone who thinks the officiating will be better or more "neutral" in the SEC is delusional.

Thatguy: I was writing about turnarounds, not title seasons. The existence of Joe Freaking Montana has nothing to do with the three strategies deployed in UT turnarounds, the only successful turnarounds. FYI: Montana was a great QB. But Texas lost three huge fumbles in that loss to ND, who drove a total of 161 yards for all five TDs, while Texas drove 150 yards for its 10 points. Plus, Akers stayed too conservative on offense, foreshadowing his ultimate doom.

About turnarounds at UT. There have been three successful turnarounds since Royal was hired in 1957. All three centered around stud running backs, not superstar QBs. Sark had a stud running back on hand. For two years. — 1968. The most famed turnaround was the one Royal did on himself. After three straight 6-4 seasons and feeling serious heat, Royal (and Emory Bellard) installed the Wishbone and proceeded to win 30 straight games and two MNC. Key point: The offense was developed to feature the three stud running backs: Worster, Koy, and Bertelsen. — 1977. Akers took over Royal’s 5-5-1 team, ditched the Wishbone, and installed offense to feature Earl Campbell. Texas goes 11-0 and Earl wins Heisman (though they blow MNC by losing to ND in Cotton Bowl. Grrrr). Key point: Akers created offense to feature superstar running back. — 1998. Brown took over Mackovic’s 4-7 team, installs offense that featured Ricky Williams, and Ricky gets Heisman, Texas goes 9-3, and wiped out Sherrill’s Mississippi State 38-6 in the Cotton Bowl. Key point: Brown (and GDGD) installed offense to feature superstar running back. Both of Texas’s Heismans happened in turnaround seasons. With backup QBs who replaced the injured #1 QB. Akers and Brown did not need a superstar QB to turn things around and win Heismans. They deployed the star running back on hand. Sark takes over Herman’s 7-3 team and goes 5-7. Inherits Bijan Robinson, who most agree is a potential Heisman winner. Sark apparently chooses not to develop an offense that centrally featured Bijan. Two years in a row. — Considering the Heisman history at Texas, this seems like a massively blown opportunity. (Whatever the excuses that blame Herman's OL recruits). — 12-11 with Bijan in the backfield? Akers went 11-1 with Earl, Brown went 9-3 with Ricky. Neither had 5-star or 4-star QB.

Sure, over the past four decades, OU has many more 10-win seasons, Big 12 titles, and Heisman Trophies (VY and Colt were robbed). Here's why. The stark difference between Texas and OU since Royal’s golden era: Hiring "the Guy." The Guy (Great, transformative coach who wins titles) — Since 1972, OU hired TWO great college coaches (Switzer, Stoops) and one very good coach (Riley, likely to be great). — Post-Royal 1976, Texas hired ZERO great college coaches, one very good coach (Brown), and one good coach (Akers). Not the Guy (Can't get it done, for whatever reason, no excuses) — OU had three: Gibbs (5 years), Schnellenberger (1 year), and Blake (3 yrs). Total years: 9 years. (Possibly Venables, too) — Texas had four: McWilliams (5 years), Mackovic (6 years), Strong (3 years), and Herman (4 years). Total years: 18 years (23 including Mack's last four and Sark's 2021 train wreck). It’s that simple, yet so complex. OU lucks into Stoops who finds Riley, while UT stumbles along with Strong, Herman, and now Sark. We point all the fingers, BMDs, no real search, blah blah blah. Bottom line: UT made more bad hires who had to be fired. Absurd, but true. —It’s that simple, as some of you have stated here. It's hiring the Guy! There is no full-proof "science," to it. No a priori formula. Just assemble evidence, references, and insights as best you can and hope like hell you hire The Right Guy. If not, keep trying.

Correction to my previous post. Mackovic and Texas lost to Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl, not the Fiesta Bowl, which was the next year (an embarrassing loss to Penn State after the "Roll Left" win over Corn).

Beware the illusion: “10 wins” and we’re back scenario … after which the coach reverts to his mean and is fired. We've seen that 3 times in 32 years. — McWilliams went 10-1 in Year 4 ("Shock the Nation"), then faced the 46-3 annihilation by Miami in the Cotton Bowl. Reverted back to his mean by going 5-6 the next year and resigned (or was fired). — Mackovic went 10-1-1 in Year 4, then had embarrassing loss to Va Tech in the Fiesta Bowl (plus the whole Weaver-McElvey 40-year-old safety on the team. Lulz). Reverted to his mean over next two years, 8-5, 4-7, and was fired. He went from "Roll Left" to "Rout 66" in 12 quarters. 12! — We all recall Herman going 10-4, then reverting to his mean, and being fired two years later. In each case, the previous mean was the true measure, not the 10-win outlier.

Here’s some more data stretching across 65 years of Texas football. Make of it what you want. Games Lost With 10-Point (or More) Leads. —Royal: 6 in 20 years —Akers: 0 in 10 years —McWilliams: 2 in 5 years —Mackovic: 2 in 6 years (both to OU) —Brown: 1 in 16 years (aggy) —Strong: 1 in 3 years —Herman: 2 in 4 years Sarkisian: 5 in 2 years, almost equaling Royal’s record in 20 years.

Did I change my mind? Speaking for myself: When I realized Sark had already lost 11 games in two years, I got curious and decided to see what the records were for previous UT coaches. Fact is: all UT coaches since Royal have been fired soon if the 10th loss came in Year 2 and 20th loss came before or during Year 5. Seems to me, that's a lot of data stretching across 65 years of Texas football. Make of it what you want.

Texas's own coaching history has all the data we need. Just look at when the 10th loss occurred. That’s the key to predicting a "turnaround" and long-term success. Of the eight coaches hired since Royal arrived in 1957, if the 10th loss happened in Year 2, the coach was fired within 1-4 years for not winning enough. Sarkisian is at 11 losses. 10th Loss — Royal and Akers: 10th loss in Year 4. — Brown: 10th loss in Season 3, next to last game. — McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, and Herman all had their 10th loss in Year 2. This alone suggests Sark is not the guy. In my previous post (#3670, page 74) in this thread, the same striking patterns are evident when the 20th loss occurred. If the 20th loss came before or during Year 5, the coach was fired within one year. McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong.

TLDR: Texas coaching history suggests Sarkisian is not the guy. Why? Since 1957, the five Texas coaches with 10 losses by Year 2 were soon fired for failing to win enough or turnaround the Horns. No need for comparisons to Lincoln Riley, Sonny Freaking Dykes, or anyone else. Texas itself provides the data. Apologies for the long post, but I am sure some will want to see the data backing up my observation. I added a few lines for flavor and context. TRIGGER WARNING: Some bad memories mixed with epic title wins. Analyzing the Timing of the Coaches' 10th and 20th Losses. — Of the eight coaches hired since 1957, their success can be clearly predicted by looking at when each coach had their 10th and 20th losses. If the 10th loss happened in Year 2, the coach was fired within 1-4 years. If the 20th loss came before or during Year 5, the coach was fired within one year. McWilliams and Strong’s 20th losses both came in two of the most infamous defeats in Texas history. All data from TexasSports.com 10th Loss — Royal and Akers: 10th loss in Year 4. — Brown: 10th loss in Season 3, next to last game. — McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, Herman, and Sarkisian all had their 10th loss in Year 2. 20th Loss: Year 8 or 9 — Brown, Year 9. Record to that point 84-20. National title in 2005 in that game we all cherish. — Royal, Year 8. Record 75-20-3. National title in 1963 with major beatdown of Navy. Just missed by a single score on two other undefeated seasons and possible national titles, 1961 and 1964. — Akers, Year 8. Record 75-20. Missed on two titles after undefeated regular seasons ending ranked #1. Damn that fumbled punt. Yes, Akers and Royal both had 75 wins when they hit 20 losses. 20th Loss: Year 3, 4, or 5 — Mackovic, Year 5, Record to that point 32-20-1. Beats Corn for “Roll Left” Big 12 title. Fired the next year for going 4-7, including Rout 66. Going 4-7 with Ricky Williams! — McWilliams, Year 4. Record 26-20. The 20th loss was the 46-3 Miami beatdown in the Cotton Bowl. Fired or resigned the next year after going 5-6. — Strong, Year 3, Record 16-20. The 20th loss was the infamous Kansas game, fired one game later. — Herman fired at 32-18. (No doubt the 20th loss would have come in Year 5, likely at the State Fair in overtime or with walk off game-winning TD.) Comparing 20th Loss Records — Mack, 84-20, Royal and Akers, 75-20 — Mackovic, 36-20, McWilliams 26-20, and Strong, 16-20. — The data is unmistakable by the 20th loss. Brown, Royal, and Akers had 40-50-60 more wins. Turnarounds — Year 1: Royal, Brown, and Akers (see caveat* below) — No turnaround: McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, and Herman. — Of course, Royal famously did a turnaround on himself after three straight 6-4 seasons. Installed the Wishbone, won 30 straight games, and won two more national titles (and revolutionized college football offenses for 10-15 years). — Keys to the Akers and Brown turnarounds were installing offenses that featured Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams, enabling them to win Heismans and signal the Texas turnaround. Sark's offense did not feature Bijan and a Heisman chance was lost. — *One might say Akers did less of a turnaround than just keeping the Royal machine going (5-5-1 in Royal’s final year, but 10-2 in year prior), until Akers's winning collapsed and he was fired after Year 10. Beware the Illusory Turnarounds or "Texas is Back" seasons — The 10-2 “turnaround” season in Year 4. Mackovic in 1995 and McWilliams' “Shock the Nation” in 1990 (went 5-6 the next season and was fired). — The Big 12 championship with so-so record. Mackovic 8-4 in 1996 and was fired after the next year. — The big bowl victory: Herman winning Sugar Bowl, with Bevo nearly goring Uga and Sam declaring “We’re Back.” Herman fired two years later. Have at it everyone. I am sure someone is eager to shred this somehow or just disregard it. Or launch some ad hominems. About the author: Two grad degrees from UT-Austin. Dad also a grad from UT.