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Everything posted by BevoAbyss
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My name's not BevoAbyss for nothing!
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The GOP Dilemma, how to win without the loyal Racist base?
BevoAbyss replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
The GOP and Religious Right have been attacking science on ever-more fronts over the past 40-50 years, perhaps since the Apollo moon landing. Since the Reagan-Falwell marriage of Republicans and religion, the long-term goal has always been a fascist theocracy to rule America. Always. Everything else is a smoke screen. That's why, as troph made clear, the GOP and theocrats want (evidence-free) creationism on equal intellectual standing with evolution and the 13.75 billion year evolution of the observable universe, for which there exists massive, overwhelming evidence. (Don't forget the "intelligent design" nonsense of the 1990s.) To equate any creationist claims and beliefs with the empirical evidence of evolution and the expansion of the universe is laughable ... and dangerous. To achieve the theocracy, American intellectual standards must crater and collapse, which is happening right before our eyes. Doublethink is running amok across America (But what about ...). This leaves the field open for creationism and conspiracy theory, which are essentially two sides of the same coin that pretend to make sense of the world. There is no way to satisfy a MAGA, creationist, or conspiracy theorist with logic or evidence. They both believe all-knowing unseen hidden forces control the world (God, the Devil, Communists, the Trilateral Commission, etc.). All that matter are the sacred scrolls, from Bible passages to QAnon drops. All that's left are myths, lies, and violence, such as Bible-thumping patriots armed to the teeth, election conspiracies, and the attempted coup on January 6. The list goes on: the attacks on people of color, women's reproductive rights, and LGBTQ+ community are straight out of the fascist theocrat playbook. I'll say it again, the GOP goal is a fascist theocracy. To deny and not confront that fact is dangerous. That's why American democracy is in deep deep trouble. -
The GOP Dilemma, how to win without the loyal Racist base?
BevoAbyss replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
Since Reagan and Falwell merged religion (fundamentalist, evangelical) with the Republican Party in the 1980s, the long-term goal of the GOP and Religious Right has always been a fascist theocracy. Always. Just look at the makeup of the Supreme Court. Look at the theocratic ideology that the GOP uses to rule Texas. (Of course, the GOP apologists and true believers will remain in denial.) -
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To say this game was BIG is an understatement. It was freaking EPIC. One of the biggest in all college FB history. -- ABC moving the game to the last week on the chance that #1 and #2 would be the match-up. The prototype for BCS play-off games. No other competing games on TV, no cable, no internet, no streaming. Cold weather over much of America. Massive national TV audience, dwarfing UT-USC. Nielsen rating of 52, with an even higher share of TVs turned on. -- The Texas wishbone on 18-game winning streak, Arkansas at 14 games (I think). -- I was a little kid (now with PhD UT degree), but my dad was a UT alum and we watched the game on new color TV. The entire DFW suburban neighborhood was stoked, especially since Arkansas transplants lived down the street, along with Catholics from Boston who were Notre Dame fans. -- Later in life, I met older UT alum who told me this: A lunch of UT dorms had low ceilings and when Peschel caught the pass, many jumped up raising their arms and accidentally punched holes in the ceilings. True or not, I don't know. -- If I recall, the Street-Peschel pass was named Play-of-the-Decade by some college FB media people. -- Nixon showing up and correctly predicting Texas would win during half-time interview. -- Amazing that Royal and Street pulled out the win, despite 6 turnovers!
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Same thing was said about Mackovic after McWilliams. Same thing was said about Herman after Strong. Keep on dreamin'. Maybe it will come true. I hope it does. Correct.
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I never said we should go back 25+ years. I said that Sark is Mackovic 2.0 or worse (McWilliams). Supposed offensive whiz, great wins, inexplicable losses, baffling game plans, and so on. Watching the last two years is like going back 25-30 years. And we will repeat that era all over again for the next few years.
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Always great to beat Baylor. Always. Especially with the 4th quarter running game featuring Bijan. Why did it take so long to come up with that plan? But, for those who attended UT in late 1980s-early 1990s, we have seen this before. — 13-11 after two years suggests Sark will end up somewhere between Mackovic (best-case scenario) and McWilliams (worst-case). This season has a total Mackovic feel: great victories and inexplicable, bumbling losses. Mackovic was supposed to be offense whiz. — Sark has 3 more wins than last season, but only 1 more than Herman’s last season. So the longer-term improvement is not 3 wins, but 1 win across two years. Almost exactly like Mackovic following McWilliams. — Sark has 5 wins and 8 wins, which averages to 6.5 per year, which rounds to 7. As in 7-Win-Steve. The history repeats because we ignore it and do the same thing again ... and again ... and again. All while hoping for the best despite what is right before our eyes. Feel free to ignore or slam me with my references to actual Texas football history.
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Anyone who thinks the officiating will be better or more "neutral" in the SEC is delusional.
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Thatguy: I was writing about turnarounds, not title seasons. The existence of Joe Freaking Montana has nothing to do with the three strategies deployed in UT turnarounds, the only successful turnarounds. FYI: Montana was a great QB. But Texas lost three huge fumbles in that loss to ND, who drove a total of 161 yards for all five TDs, while Texas drove 150 yards for its 10 points. Plus, Akers stayed too conservative on offense, foreshadowing his ultimate doom.
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About turnarounds at UT. There have been three successful turnarounds since Royal was hired in 1957. All three centered around stud running backs, not superstar QBs. Sark had a stud running back on hand. For two years. — 1968. The most famed turnaround was the one Royal did on himself. After three straight 6-4 seasons and feeling serious heat, Royal (and Emory Bellard) installed the Wishbone and proceeded to win 30 straight games and two MNC. Key point: The offense was developed to feature the three stud running backs: Worster, Koy, and Bertelsen. — 1977. Akers took over Royal’s 5-5-1 team, ditched the Wishbone, and installed offense to feature Earl Campbell. Texas goes 11-0 and Earl wins Heisman (though they blow MNC by losing to ND in Cotton Bowl. Grrrr). Key point: Akers created offense to feature superstar running back. — 1998. Brown took over Mackovic’s 4-7 team, installs offense that featured Ricky Williams, and Ricky gets Heisman, Texas goes 9-3, and wiped out Sherrill’s Mississippi State 38-6 in the Cotton Bowl. Key point: Brown (and GDGD) installed offense to feature superstar running back. Both of Texas’s Heismans happened in turnaround seasons. With backup QBs who replaced the injured #1 QB. Akers and Brown did not need a superstar QB to turn things around and win Heismans. They deployed the star running back on hand. Sark takes over Herman’s 7-3 team and goes 5-7. Inherits Bijan Robinson, who most agree is a potential Heisman winner. Sark apparently chooses not to develop an offense that centrally featured Bijan. Two years in a row. — Considering the Heisman history at Texas, this seems like a massively blown opportunity. (Whatever the excuses that blame Herman's OL recruits). — 12-11 with Bijan in the backfield? Akers went 11-1 with Earl, Brown went 9-3 with Ricky. Neither had 5-star or 4-star QB.
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Sure, over the past four decades, OU has many more 10-win seasons, Big 12 titles, and Heisman Trophies (VY and Colt were robbed). Here's why. The stark difference between Texas and OU since Royal’s golden era: Hiring "the Guy." The Guy (Great, transformative coach who wins titles) — Since 1972, OU hired TWO great college coaches (Switzer, Stoops) and one very good coach (Riley, likely to be great). — Post-Royal 1976, Texas hired ZERO great college coaches, one very good coach (Brown), and one good coach (Akers). Not the Guy (Can't get it done, for whatever reason, no excuses) — OU had three: Gibbs (5 years), Schnellenberger (1 year), and Blake (3 yrs). Total years: 9 years. (Possibly Venables, too) — Texas had four: McWilliams (5 years), Mackovic (6 years), Strong (3 years), and Herman (4 years). Total years: 18 years (23 including Mack's last four and Sark's 2021 train wreck). It’s that simple, yet so complex. OU lucks into Stoops who finds Riley, while UT stumbles along with Strong, Herman, and now Sark. We point all the fingers, BMDs, no real search, blah blah blah. Bottom line: UT made more bad hires who had to be fired. Absurd, but true. —It’s that simple, as some of you have stated here. It's hiring the Guy! There is no full-proof "science," to it. No a priori formula. Just assemble evidence, references, and insights as best you can and hope like hell you hire The Right Guy. If not, keep trying.
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Correction to my previous post. Mackovic and Texas lost to Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl, not the Fiesta Bowl, which was the next year (an embarrassing loss to Penn State after the "Roll Left" win over Corn).
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Beware the illusion: “10 wins” and we’re back scenario … after which the coach reverts to his mean and is fired. We've seen that 3 times in 32 years. — McWilliams went 10-1 in Year 4 ("Shock the Nation"), then faced the 46-3 annihilation by Miami in the Cotton Bowl. Reverted back to his mean by going 5-6 the next year and resigned (or was fired). — Mackovic went 10-1-1 in Year 4, then had embarrassing loss to Va Tech in the Fiesta Bowl (plus the whole Weaver-McElvey 40-year-old safety on the team. Lulz). Reverted to his mean over next two years, 8-5, 4-7, and was fired. He went from "Roll Left" to "Rout 66" in 12 quarters. 12! — We all recall Herman going 10-4, then reverting to his mean, and being fired two years later. In each case, the previous mean was the true measure, not the 10-win outlier.
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Here’s some more data stretching across 65 years of Texas football. Make of it what you want. Games Lost With 10-Point (or More) Leads. —Royal: 6 in 20 years —Akers: 0 in 10 years —McWilliams: 2 in 5 years —Mackovic: 2 in 6 years (both to OU) —Brown: 1 in 16 years (aggy) —Strong: 1 in 3 years —Herman: 2 in 4 years Sarkisian: 5 in 2 years, almost equaling Royal’s record in 20 years.
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Did I change my mind? Speaking for myself: When I realized Sark had already lost 11 games in two years, I got curious and decided to see what the records were for previous UT coaches. Fact is: all UT coaches since Royal have been fired soon if the 10th loss came in Year 2 and 20th loss came before or during Year 5. Seems to me, that's a lot of data stretching across 65 years of Texas football. Make of it what you want.
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Texas's own coaching history has all the data we need. Just look at when the 10th loss occurred. That’s the key to predicting a "turnaround" and long-term success. Of the eight coaches hired since Royal arrived in 1957, if the 10th loss happened in Year 2, the coach was fired within 1-4 years for not winning enough. Sarkisian is at 11 losses. 10th Loss — Royal and Akers: 10th loss in Year 4. — Brown: 10th loss in Season 3, next to last game. — McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, and Herman all had their 10th loss in Year 2. This alone suggests Sark is not the guy. In my previous post (#3670, page 74) in this thread, the same striking patterns are evident when the 20th loss occurred. If the 20th loss came before or during Year 5, the coach was fired within one year. McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong.
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TLDR: Texas coaching history suggests Sarkisian is not the guy. Why? Since 1957, the five Texas coaches with 10 losses by Year 2 were soon fired for failing to win enough or turnaround the Horns. No need for comparisons to Lincoln Riley, Sonny Freaking Dykes, or anyone else. Texas itself provides the data. Apologies for the long post, but I am sure some will want to see the data backing up my observation. I added a few lines for flavor and context. TRIGGER WARNING: Some bad memories mixed with epic title wins. Analyzing the Timing of the Coaches' 10th and 20th Losses. — Of the eight coaches hired since 1957, their success can be clearly predicted by looking at when each coach had their 10th and 20th losses. If the 10th loss happened in Year 2, the coach was fired within 1-4 years. If the 20th loss came before or during Year 5, the coach was fired within one year. McWilliams and Strong’s 20th losses both came in two of the most infamous defeats in Texas history. All data from TexasSports.com 10th Loss — Royal and Akers: 10th loss in Year 4. — Brown: 10th loss in Season 3, next to last game. — McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, Herman, and Sarkisian all had their 10th loss in Year 2. 20th Loss: Year 8 or 9 — Brown, Year 9. Record to that point 84-20. National title in 2005 in that game we all cherish. — Royal, Year 8. Record 75-20-3. National title in 1963 with major beatdown of Navy. Just missed by a single score on two other undefeated seasons and possible national titles, 1961 and 1964. — Akers, Year 8. Record 75-20. Missed on two titles after undefeated regular seasons ending ranked #1. Damn that fumbled punt. Yes, Akers and Royal both had 75 wins when they hit 20 losses. 20th Loss: Year 3, 4, or 5 — Mackovic, Year 5, Record to that point 32-20-1. Beats Corn for “Roll Left” Big 12 title. Fired the next year for going 4-7, including Rout 66. Going 4-7 with Ricky Williams! — McWilliams, Year 4. Record 26-20. The 20th loss was the 46-3 Miami beatdown in the Cotton Bowl. Fired or resigned the next year after going 5-6. — Strong, Year 3, Record 16-20. The 20th loss was the infamous Kansas game, fired one game later. — Herman fired at 32-18. (No doubt the 20th loss would have come in Year 5, likely at the State Fair in overtime or with walk off game-winning TD.) Comparing 20th Loss Records — Mack, 84-20, Royal and Akers, 75-20 — Mackovic, 36-20, McWilliams 26-20, and Strong, 16-20. — The data is unmistakable by the 20th loss. Brown, Royal, and Akers had 40-50-60 more wins. Turnarounds — Year 1: Royal, Brown, and Akers (see caveat* below) — No turnaround: McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, and Herman. — Of course, Royal famously did a turnaround on himself after three straight 6-4 seasons. Installed the Wishbone, won 30 straight games, and won two more national titles (and revolutionized college football offenses for 10-15 years). — Keys to the Akers and Brown turnarounds were installing offenses that featured Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams, enabling them to win Heismans and signal the Texas turnaround. Sark's offense did not feature Bijan and a Heisman chance was lost. — *One might say Akers did less of a turnaround than just keeping the Royal machine going (5-5-1 in Royal’s final year, but 10-2 in year prior), until Akers's winning collapsed and he was fired after Year 10. Beware the Illusory Turnarounds or "Texas is Back" seasons — The 10-2 “turnaround” season in Year 4. Mackovic in 1995 and McWilliams' “Shock the Nation” in 1990 (went 5-6 the next season and was fired). — The Big 12 championship with so-so record. Mackovic 8-4 in 1996 and was fired after the next year. — The big bowl victory: Herman winning Sugar Bowl, with Bevo nearly goring Uga and Sam declaring “We’re Back.” Herman fired two years later. Have at it everyone. I am sure someone is eager to shred this somehow or just disregard it. Or launch some ad hominems. About the author: Two grad degrees from UT-Austin. Dad also a grad from UT.
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