TLDR: Texas coaching history suggests Sarkisian is not the guy. Why? Since 1957, the five Texas coaches with 10 losses by Year 2 were soon fired for failing to win enough or turnaround the Horns. No need for comparisons to Lincoln Riley, Sonny Freaking Dykes, or anyone else. Texas itself provides the data.
Apologies for the long post, but I am sure some will want to see the data backing up my observation. I added a few lines for flavor and context.
TRIGGER WARNING: Some bad memories mixed with epic title wins.
Analyzing the Timing of the Coaches' 10th and 20th Losses.
— Of the eight coaches hired since 1957, their success can be clearly predicted by looking at when each coach had their 10th and 20th losses. If the 10th loss happened in Year 2, the coach was fired within 1-4 years. If the 20th loss came before or during Year 5, the coach was fired within one year. McWilliams and Strong’s 20th losses both came in two of the most infamous defeats in Texas history. All data from TexasSports.com
10th Loss
— Royal and Akers: 10th loss in Year 4.
— Brown: 10th loss in Season 3, next to last game.
— McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, Herman, and Sarkisian all had their 10th loss in Year 2.
20th Loss: Year 8 or 9
— Brown, Year 9. Record to that point 84-20. National title in 2005 in that game we all cherish.
— Royal, Year 8. Record 75-20-3. National title in 1963 with major beatdown of Navy. Just missed by a single score on two other undefeated seasons and possible national titles, 1961 and 1964.
— Akers, Year 8. Record 75-20. Missed on two titles after undefeated regular seasons ending ranked #1. Damn that fumbled punt. Yes, Akers and Royal both had 75 wins when they hit 20 losses.
20th Loss: Year 3, 4, or 5
— Mackovic, Year 5, Record to that point 32-20-1. Beats Corn for “Roll Left” Big 12 title. Fired the next year for going 4-7, including Rout 66. Going 4-7 with Ricky Williams!
— McWilliams, Year 4. Record 26-20. The 20th loss was the 46-3 Miami beatdown in the Cotton Bowl. Fired or resigned the next year after going 5-6.
— Strong, Year 3, Record 16-20. The 20th loss was the infamous Kansas game, fired one game later.
— Herman fired at 32-18. (No doubt the 20th loss would have come in Year 5, likely at the State Fair in overtime or with walk off game-winning TD.)
Comparing 20th Loss Records
— Mack, 84-20, Royal and Akers, 75-20
— Mackovic, 36-20, McWilliams 26-20, and Strong, 16-20.
— The data is unmistakable by the 20th loss. Brown, Royal, and Akers had 40-50-60 more wins.
Turnarounds
— Year 1: Royal, Brown, and Akers (see caveat* below)
— No turnaround: McWilliams, Mackovic, Strong, and Herman.
— Of course, Royal famously did a turnaround on himself after three straight 6-4 seasons. Installed the Wishbone, won 30 straight games, and won two more national titles (and revolutionized college football offenses for 10-15 years).
— Keys to the Akers and Brown turnarounds were installing offenses that featured Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams, enabling them to win Heismans and signal the Texas turnaround. Sark's offense did not feature Bijan and a Heisman chance was lost.
— *One might say Akers did less of a turnaround than just keeping the Royal machine going (5-5-1 in Royal’s final year, but 10-2 in year prior), until Akers's winning collapsed and he was fired after Year 10.
Beware the Illusory Turnarounds or "Texas is Back" seasons
— The 10-2 “turnaround” season in Year 4. Mackovic in 1995 and McWilliams' “Shock the Nation” in 1990 (went 5-6 the next season and was fired).
— The Big 12 championship with so-so record. Mackovic 8-4 in 1996 and was fired after the next year.
— The big bowl victory: Herman winning Sugar Bowl, with Bevo nearly goring Uga and Sam declaring “We’re Back.” Herman fired two years later.
Have at it everyone. I am sure someone is eager to shred this somehow or just disregard it. Or launch some ad hominems.
About the author: Two grad degrees from UT-Austin. Dad also a grad from UT.