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Vintner

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Everything posted by Vintner

  1. Mine did this for me. Just about everything down. Mexico, Europe, South Korea (although there may be more at work than tariffs there). I’ve been thinking about this for some time. So my question is … if you think tariffs are simply a technique/playbook for creating negotiating leverage for the current president for whatever reason (maybe it is reducing fentanyl and immigration…who knows ..threatening tariffs on Denmark for Greenland seems to be a thing) then maybe these threats either go away or get resolved in a few months/quarters after whatever goal is achieved….and thus is this really the time (or maybe in the near future when sentiment really gets bad) to double down? If the tariffs get implemented and are “long lived” then my losses are just that. Probably not worth doubling down and hoping for long term reversals. Playing out the “long lived” theme … inside the US borders I expect that materials will get more expensive (following the earlier logic presented by several other posters). US materials suppliers margins would increase but will their volumes hold up? And then, whether industrial manufacturers can pass that along or they just have to eat all/some of their input cost increases…. How this plays out in the (larger) service sector and in conjunction with the deportation policies/activities isn’t quite as obvious to me. Then there are the “unintended” consequences of retaliatory actions … although not every country will be willing/able to retaliate. History shows us that agriculture is vulnerable and may even get some kind of double whammy from retaliatory tariffs and a potential labor crunch (but hey if China isn’t buying soybeans why contract the labor to pick them … oversimplified thinking I know). Are there other ways/industries to retaliate against and would the objective be? Interesting times.
  2. National guard got deployed in our neighborhood pretty quickly after the fires here in SD some 15 years ago. I imagine the same will happen here as soon as the immediate danger has passed. Of course they don’t stay around forever but I wouldn’t recommend shooting anyone while they are around. They may not know you’re the good guy.
  3. @Sbbruin @Foosters Thoughts are with you more than you know right now. Wanted to pass along some insights from our experience through a multi-day Santa Ana driven fire down here in San Diego a few years ago. a. Weird things happen in neighborhoods. Fire jumps around leaving some houses fine. Don’t give up hope. b. Not that you need more things to worry about right now but if you are concerned about losing your house it’s been my experience that rentals are going to double and triple in the next few hours/days. I don’t know the areas you are in but it might be wise to spend a few minutes on trulia/zillow looking at rentals in suitable locations and find some possible spots you’d be able/willing to stay for a while. Repairs/rebuilding was a multi-year experience for many people down here. We had hundreds of homes lost which resulted in a lot more time than you would think to get insurance issues sorted plus contractors will be in short supply. Not trying to be a downer but just trying to share what we observed.
  4. I just sold our Land Cruiser. Maybe that was a mistake given how well this one held up?
  5. Roth 401Ks are goldmines for the crowd under 35. At least do the company match but the best advice is to contribute all that you can. It’s hard to see the benefit when you are early in your career, because it’s taking away from your discretionary spending aka “fun budget”. The first $100K is the hardest but that will grow and the next $100K comes faster (barring financial crises…but that’s when things get cheap and markets will recover) and eventually the annual growth of your investments exceeds your contributions. Keep the pedal to the metal if you can but I will say that as your earnings increase throughout your career you may choose to shift some to traditional 401K in order to moderate/minimize current taxes. Regardless of your vehicle keep making the biggest contribution that you can afford and keep it all invested in something. Most companies 401K managers have crappy money market vehicles.
  6. My sophomore year. I was walking across campus to the aerospace building (Woolrich I think?) for class (I was an aero major). As I was walking past the tower, some other student came running across saying something about the space shuttle exploding. I thought it was a joke. I got to the building which was eerily quiet and almost no one was in the stairwells which was odd for 5 mins before class. In the classroom I found out it was no joke. I don’t remember who told us, but word got around that the professor was cancelling class. Somebody said the he apparently knew a couple of the astronauts. I went over to the student union to watch the news. It was a very sad day. Hell the next few weeks were grim in that building.
  7. my kind of shirt for a linebacker coach….really any longhorn defensive coach.
  8. Any Weber kettle smokers out there? I am wondering what you do to measure the cooking temperature? I’ve been smoking using a slow and sear. Coals on one side, brisket on the other. I position the lid so the vent is over the brisket. That puts the thermometer over the coals so I don’t trust that reading. I’ve been putting my second probe on the grill next to the brisket to monitor temp (250ish). I still seem to be cooking hot because I hit the stall temp after around 2.5 hours. Any advice from other kettle smokers?
  9. SIAP I used to follow a twitter account called “Jomini of the West” last year but he went silent in September. No clue who he is but has nice maps and analysis. Just saw he posted again the other day. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1620626767366209537.html
  10. Thank you to everyone who has contributed to this thread. Pretty much the first thing I read every day. Best thread in the many years I’ve been reading. Glory (and victory) to Ukraine!
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