I do wonder if this is an inflection point and something we look back on as Pre-Silicon Valley and Post-Silicon Valley as an era, from a business, tech, VC, start-up and culture perspective. The death knell of what was already happening, even.
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When the stakes are so high, and the perceived opportunity space increasingly narrowed, every decision becomes a Prisoner’s Dilemma — and, in retrospect, what happened to Silicon Valley Bank becomes inevitable. Moreover, it probably won’t be the only bad outcome of this new environment; it’s hard to understand the value of trust until it’s gone, and the full accounting of what has been lost will take years.
The irony in this loss of trust is that the ultimate driver is tech itself. What made the Silicon Valley Bank run unique was (1) the ease with which its customers could execute withdrawals and (2) the speed with which news of Silicon Valley Bank’s impending demise spread. Just to put the scale of this collapse in context, a total of $7 billion in depositors’ assets was lost in The Great Depression; $7 billion then is $161 billion today. Silicon Valley Bank, meanwhile, processed $42 billion in withdrawals in 24 hours. It was the speed, fueled by zero distribution costs for both rumors and withdrawals, that was so destabilizing for an entity predicated on arbitraging time.
That destabilization and resultant loss of trust, meanwhile, is everywhere around us, from our politics to business to every aspect of media. This increased uncertainty and destabilization has and will continue to drive demands for more government intervention — and, like this weekend, it may not even be wrong! More government, though, means replacing trust with more rules, regulations, and restrictions, which will have a long-term effect on innovation. This, perhaps, is the inevitable outcome of tech having set disruption as its objective function: the ultimate casualty may be the Silicon Valley that once was, not just its bank.