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Horn of Gabriel

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Everything posted by Horn of Gabriel

  1. Why would China go in opposition to their biggest ally Russia to get more rare earths, of which they are the world leader in today?
  2. Agree. I know enough of these people and what isn't helpful is calling them idiots, racist, etc - that just drives them harder into MAGA's arms. What I mean is that it makes people within this board feel really good but it's not a winning formula politically.
  3. There are many out there who do believe this. And they voted.
  4. Did you even read my post? I did NOT vote for Trump. I did in fact vote for Harris, not that it's your business. I'm as disgusted with Trump as anyone, especially today. People are rightly angry. You need to separate your anger. Understanding what Trump tapped into is not the same as justifying it, making excuses for it, normalizing it, or accepting it.
  5. I'm all for it; I just doubt Europe's resolve once the U.S. drops out. Easier to just let Russia take Ukraine, Moldova, etc. They'll grasp their pearls but other than Poland I'd be surprised if they put troops down there to act as peacekeepers. They've already donated their spare gear and are just now spinning up their military industrial base.
  6. So next steps now, there is no way Zelenskyy stays in office, right? His relationship with Trump and necessity of U.S. support for Ukraine precludes it. Playing out the chess game, Ukraine's moves are: He stays as President and capitulates to Trump's demand for subjugation and sells out mineral rights and accepts whatever shit deal Trump cuts with the Russians. Or, He stays as President and remains steadfast in a "fair" deal for Ukraine, and sees Trump sell him out vs. Russia and withdraw all U.S. support going forward. His only play here would be to backstop U.S. support with EU support, I don't think there is enough to go around to make up the gap. Or, He resigns under pressure from the Ukranian parliment. Either through appointment or election he is replaced by a new personality, probably more malleable to Trump and more friendly. Takes whatever deal he can get, or as Lindsay Graham says "He knows his place."
  7. I'm libertarian/conservative. I didn't vote for Trump. Right now I'm going through all the emotions, but mostly I'm just sad. Sad, embarrassed, and angry. It's apparent on its face that Russia invaded Ukraine. Even if one of my kids is doing the "I'm not touching you I'm not touching you" to the other, when the other hits them, that's on them. Fuck Russia. For the U.S. this is a terrible look in every way: we look every part of the bully, we're cozying up to Russia/Putin, we're denigrating a democratic partner, we're selling out an ally, we're abdicating any type of leadership role and moral authority, we're taking advantage of the weak and stealing their wealth. We're so far from the "shining city on the hill" that Reagan described, it's sad. I'm sad. And I get why people voted for Trump. They feel marginalized, overlooked, like the economy left them behind. They see DEI as quotas reborn and are told that if they're white, male, or straight that they are essentially evil. Trump tapped into that anger and rage. What I can't square is how they overlook all the stuff above because it's their guy. "Yeah he's an asshole and he's hurting me, but he's my asshole and he's hurting everyone I hate more."
  8. I don't doubt that relegation and promotion would be super cool in college football or that it would drive interest across all levels. I agree that it would. I just can't get over the suspension of disbelief it takes to create a world that would allow it to exist. A short list, probably incomplete of changes to the current status quo to create promotion/relegation: An actual unified governance structure for the different leagues participating in the pro/rel process. Like the NCAA but with actual centralized power to set rules and teeth to enforce them. Won't happen because: the member institutions of the NCAA don't actually want enforceable rules on themselves, they want the facade of rules and a bad guy they can turn their fans against whenever they don't want to do something ("we'd do it but the NCAA will say...") A structure with clear leagues at the top, middle, and bottom. Won't happen because: the B1G and SEC would both want to be that league at the top and neither will go away willingly. In a merger only one set of leaders will get retained so it's in both their interests to keep things status quo. Same with Big12/ACC. Same with AAC, Sunbelt, WAC, etc. A CBA a player's union that sets out enforceable rules for contracts and transfers. Won't happen because: neither the players or the schools want a union or CBA right now. The schools don't want to admit they are employees, the players like having free agency twice per year and unlimited contracts with no salary cap. An anti-trust exemption from Congress. If there is a pro/rel structure governed by a NCAA-like organization, and it covers the majority of CFB teams, they will create a monopoly on the sale of their TV rights and get sued like the NFL did until they got their antitrust exemption from Congress in 1961. Why it won't happen: Congress's inability to agree on anything at all, let alone pass it. Buy-in from the current B1G and SEC universities. Won't happen because: they're in the catbird seat right now. What's their incentive to change? Major changes to existing contracts. Coaches, and soon players would need relegation clauses added to their contracts that reduces their comp if relegated. Won't happen because: Jimmy Sexton ain't signing off on that. I'm sure there are many others. As cool as pro/rel would be, I just can't see going from where we are to that, at least not in my lifetime (I'm in my 40's).
  9. There is a ton to talk about in here and I agree with some of it, but disagree with the conclusion. On the point about the anti-trust nature of the Power 2, and the feelings of exclusion that the KState's of the world have, you're right. But KState was never going to win a national title under any permutation of the playoff, and I'm certain that the SEC and B1G have a legion of lawyers specifically designing the changes to the CFP to preserve just enough access to everyone else to either keep them out of court or swing a decision in their favor. The facts are that the Power 2 now cover the vast majority (like around 70%) of the brands and eyeballs that care about college football. There won't be enough momentum from the Washington State's of the world to change the system. Regarding graduation rate, not enough people care about it to matter anymore. And it will matter even less when the facade of the "student-athlete" is finally dropped. I think most Americans are pretty honest about college football being a semi-pro sport at this point: star players making millions, etc. The world where they were paid in a great college education with room and board is a fading memory. I'm not sure what you mean by "publicly funded support for college sports," do you mean schools other than Texas using student fees and the academic side sending money to the athletics side? Because Texas' AD is totally self-funding and actually sends money to academics. The Georgia NIL thing is a political loser for anyone other than hard-core Georgia fans. If I were a non-Georgia fan in that state I'd be pissed: if they get an exception, why not me? Seems like the kind of thing that drives people to vote a politician out, but we'll see... A lot of people miss the regional nature of college football. I think this venerating the past without seeing its flaws. Yes it was nice to have a conference that was largely in the state of Texas in the SWC. The old Big 12 also had a few bright points at its moment in history. But they also had rampant cheating, Texas and OU carrying the water, and conference mates who detested the rich big boy coming to town and would jihad Texas. And it gave us home schedules of TTech, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Rice, etc. Today we lost the regionality but regained 2 important rivalries, entered a conference where every other game is a marquee brand and it shows up in our schedule, plus we get a ton more money for our effort and are part of one of the only 2 relevant conferences now. I'll take that tradeoff. On being in the SEC and NIL being a cheat code for Texas - BRING IT ON. In my lifetime we've had one generational player who drug his coach to the title. We've watched Bama, Georgia and others pay under-the-table blatantly for decades and Texas was "too good" for that. Rather than a cheat code, look at it as finally, FINALLY a level playing field where an aligned death star in Texas is fully armed and operational. I hope this era never ends and it takes the NCAA and congress a few decades to get their shit together. The current time is awesome for Texas.
  10. Mississippi State is a SEC cellar dweller and great candidate to examine for relegation. This article shows that MSUs FY2024 revenue was $127MM against expenses of $134MM (deficit due to a COVID loan repayment). Football created $43.7MM. This number is ticket sales, sponsorships, concessions, etc. The SEC TV deal sent MSU $52.5MM, a number expected to grow significantly in coming years. Currently MSU fields teams in Men's: Football, Basketball, Baseball, Golf, Tennis and Track and Field, plus Women's Basketball, Cross Country, Soccer, Softball, Tennis, Track and Field, and Volleyball. All sports other than football ran a deficit. Let's say MSU gets relegated to the Big12, or something like it. Last year the Big 12 distributed $470MM to it's member schools. They did an unequal split for the new members that will equalize in coming years but if you average it, that's $29.4MM per school - and that's before the SEC revenues really kick into high gear when they add another game or play-in tournament for the CFP. That gap is not going to shrink. If you take just the football TV revenue alone, MSU would lose $23MM/year. The reality would be much worse than that, because a moribund MSU fan base is not showing up for a football team that just got relegated and is now hosting a home schedule of Baylor and West Virginia. Their ticket revenues would crater as well, let's be generous as say that they only dip by 30%, which is half of the dip that Premier League teams take when relegated (even including parachute payments). That's a loss of another ~$14.5MM. The original AD budget of $127MM is now down to $89.5MM. What gets cut? MSU is relatively poor, they don't have a Boone Pickens to make up the gap. Student fees can only cover so much. And don't forget Title IX, you can't just cut women's sports. They'd scrap everything except football, baseball and (maybe) men's BB and the bare minimum women's sports they'd be required to keep. Even then, all those sports would take huge cuts. Are these solvable problems? Sure, and soccer shows the way: ADs could negotiate relegation clauses in contracts, the NCAA could figure out the player employment legal jumble and work with the players to create a CBA that would allow for buying/selling player contracts, that same currently non-existent player's union could work with the NCAA to create conditions for transfer so that a relegated team doesn't immediately lose all of its players to the portal, conferences could setup parachute payments, etc. If there's a will there's a way. The problem is there is no will. Nobody is beating down Sankey's or any commissioner's door for relegation/promotion. In fact, it would be actively opposed by any team in the SEC or B1G today for obvious reasons. So yeah, relegation is a total and complete fantasy in college football.
  11. This has been impossible since the OU v NCAA tv decision in the early 80’s and probably before even then. If you’re Texas…heck if you’re TTech, your whole athletic department is funded off football. Football is funded by TV money. Can you imagine being the AD whose budget goes from $70MM to $35MM or from $25MM to $4MM because the football team got relegated? At that point not only are you gone, you probably have to cut almost all sports. Promotion/relegation is a message board fantasy.
  12. Apparently people w/ DVT are prone to more in the future. But there is medication to help...who knows, if on a scale of 1-10 a sprain is a 1 and Greg Oden's knee/foot issues are a 10, this is probably a 5?
  13. As has been shown time and time again, people root for those cinderella's, and they may pick them in a bracket...but they don't watch those games. Unless it's super close and they tune into the last 2 minutes, maybe. Having the SD State Aztecs make the F4 was not great for ratings. Ratings drive money, and money drives both realignment and the CFP structure. Why is anyone surprised by any of this?
  14. That's awesome. Very happy for him and for your family! What is his plan with RTF? Production? Director, editor? It is a tough road right now. I did RTF(graduated 2000) and only know a handful of people who actually went into the industry. One of my best friends was actually very successful, and went from PA, to 2nd 2nd AD, to 2nd AD to 1st AD and even a few director gigs. But he also was never able to build a family (6 months in one city, 9 months in the next city will do that), and nowadays he says for the studios it's not a question of "if" they produce overseas, it's "which overseas country are we filming in that is the cheapest?" The US production market has gotten priced out and he hasn't had a production gig in 2 years - especially since post-COVID the streaming services overproduced a ton of content that they're just now getting through releasing.
  15. That's better bye week timing.
  16. I think Rodney Terry should be available soon, Spurs should give him a call. ...ducks
  17. Yeah I haven't ever seen him interviewed until now. Very eloquent guy, team focused over individual stats. Exactly the type of fit you want to see. GSG
  18. Looks like the trade isn't finalized yet b/c Chicago has to make room and waive or trade 2 players. Likely earliest to see Fox will be Friday vs. Charlotte.
  19. I feel like we are always good for one last blast of winter. Sometimes it comes mid-February other times even March. But it will come.
  20. ok so that comment wasn't actually intended as Sochan slander. I have plenty of other comments for that. I know I've seen small ball lineups this year and last where Sochan slid down to guard the five? Not arguing that we're not getting better in this trade (we are, a lot), but there are still obvious holes to plug. A team with Barnes-Bassey-Mamu as their bigs in the playoffs...not great.
  21. We're not done. With Collins gone our centers are Mamu and...? Who else guards the other team's 5? Sochan? Don't want Wemby taking that abuse.
  22. Is this going to be one of those trades where both teams end up worse? Who plays defense on the Lakers now? Who runs offense for the Mavs?
  23. Yep, he's got the Tom Herman 1000 yard stare part down pat. Don't worry we'll soon have a stroked out 75 year old Pop back to run experiments like Sochan PG and lineups that we'll never see again as we "learn what Wemby is comfortable with." Our defense will improve marginally and we'll fight for that 10th playin spot and wait for those draft picks to pay off. Sometime around Wemby's 8th or 9th season, barring injury, we'll think about contending again.
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