So this is a big game for Texas and Sark from a national standpoint and reputation standpoint for Sark. There's the narrative that Texas can't get over the "Georgia" hump and that Sark is 0-6 against Deboer, Day, Kirby. There is also everything on the line for this season. Let's break it down.
Against teams with good defenses (Bama, Auburn, Florida) UGA scored 21, 20, 24. The only teams to put up over 30 points on UGA were Ole Miss and Tennessee, yet both lost. Georgia is effective in running the ball, their QB is one of the most efficient passers in CFB, and they are clicking in all phases of the game right now. Then factor is Kirby working the refs and UGA getting all the calls against our last 2 games against them and against the rest of the SEC. Georgia also doesn't lose at home.
Texas on the other hand has struggled to put up more than 20 points on all the P4 teams we have played until Mississippi State. Our offense has looked good really through 4 quarters this entire year. 4th quarter against Mississippi State and first 3 quarters against Vanderbilt. Neither defense has the athletes, bodies, talent, or schemes that UGA, Ohio State, Florida, and ou have. Texas has also played 4 road games, 2 losses and 2 OT wins against Kentucky and MSU.
Look at this match up, I will be utterly shocked if we can run the ball. UGA has a good run defense but terrible pass rush. I think Sark has to look at what Ole Miss and Tennessee did and what Georgia Tech has done against them. I would throw play action out the window against UGA. I would simplify everything for this offense in hopes of staying in 3rd and short. Arch is going to need to run the ball when he can to get 3-4 yards and slide just to keep positive momentum on offense. I would run zone read and limit the pass options. I would attack their secondary and I would lean on Arch to throw it 30+ times. We are going to have to win this game on Arch's shoulders. I have no confidence in this OL, no confidence in our WRs, and no confidence from our TEs. We don't have a #1 WR that can go and make a 50/50 catch outside of Mosley. I hope that this is the Mosley's coming out party, and he can win 1 on 1s. Wingo is the least physical WR I have seen in a Texas uniform since Malcolm Epps. Against a team like UGA, I'm not expecting much of anything from him. Moore is a not elite in anything and will be good for 3 catches and 40 yards likely. I think we're going to need Livingstone and Mosley to have big games and win their match ups. Endries will need to have the best blocking game of his life this Saturday. Baxter is going to need to play a lot to run inside and for his blitz pick up.
Defensively, I like how we match up against UGA for the most part. We need to take away what they are going to do, which is run the ball. We need to keep them in 3rd and 7 or longer. As much confidence I have in our pass rush and run defense, our secondary has reverted back to its usual self. Outside of last year where we had an experienced and extremely talented group, this secondary has been pretty average to bad every year PK has been here. The pass rush is going to have to get pressure without breaking contain on Stockton and not hope our secondary is going to hold up for 4 seconds. Hopefully having Taaffe back fixes our issues on the back end. If I'm PK, I attack their 2 true freshman OL. The bend but don't break defense is not one I would roll in with into this game. We need turnovers, we need UGA to feel out of rhythm and we need to for them to win this game on Stockton's arm. If they get ahead early and control the clock, this will get ugly.
If our defense can do the above and if we can get ahead of UGA to start the game, we have a chance. The reality of it is this team has yet to put together a complete game in all 3 phases. We are undisciplined in penalties, struggle to run the ball, do not pass block well and generally start slow and play catch up in all of our big games. Given the above my heart says we win 23-21. My head says we lose 20-13 with UGA being up two scores most of the game and us making it close at the end but never really being in it.