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wackawacka

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Everything posted by wackawacka

  1. wackawacka
    Not a defense of SVB, but no regional bank could withstand $54b? in withdrawls so there is merit to the run of the bank argument. With that said, it does not mean the bank was mismanaged and potentially insolvent which is seen in no other bank wanting to buy their assets. Every bank even GS wanted to own SVB but not one of them is willing to acquire their (toxic) assets because as you look into their loan portfolio then you quickly discover how quickly the bank is under water as it was essentially run as a leveraged PE fund.
  2. wackawacka
    This is categorically untrue. Globally systematically important banks have to mark their portfolio to market and have liquidity requirements that SVB and other regional banks who have assets under $250b do not. The liquidity requirements alone would have triggered a change in their portfolio approach. Additionally, it would not allowed them to be surprised by loses on long dated treasury as those loses were only realized when sold vs GSIBs have to make their portfolio to market.
  3. wackawacka
  4. wackawacka
    Every national retailer wants a banking licenses but blocked due to political reasons. Let retails (e.g., Amazon/Walmart) buy these regional banks.
  5. wackawacka
    it changed the threshold from $50b in assets to $250b this was predictable and comical how the regulators have backed themselves into this corner.
  6. wackawacka
    Pointless degrees are finally going away. https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-students-are-turning-away-from-college-and-toward-apprenticeships-15f3a05d
  7. wackawacka
    I grew up in Houston! You can encourage population density and reverse urban sprawl. It just requires zoning and regulation which I know is heresy in Texas
  8. wackawacka
    it needs to have the reach to support local commuters. the issue is how it is sold as likely won't pay dividends for decades as the light rail in houston doesn't actually go anywhere. the problem with most of these plans is longer-term investment so usable for local commuters. if you showed that total cost, it would never pass. it is clear that more roads aren't the answer but politics won't allow for the investment needed for large scale public transit. we should increase gas tax and use that to fund public transit. look at any tier 1 city and notice all the places people want to live or visit has a huge network of public transit. the us has way under invested in that which results in shit hole cities like Houston and LA.
  9. wackawacka
    mass transit is a public good - it doesn't have to make economic sense. i rather burn tax dollars than have our city look like the katy freeway More lanes = more demand and same level of congestion. only way cities can solve traffic is investing in public transit.
  10. wackawacka
  11. wackawacka
    On a client briefing call with a major bank (e.g., JP, GS), they are ripping SVB.
  12. wackawacka
    People keep shitting on Thiel (founders fund) but there was a number of VC funds that pulled all their money and told all their PortCo to do the same. (YC, Coatue, Union Square to name a few...)
  13. wackawacka
    Most of the deposits is VC money....
  14. wackawacka
    No-CR: There is no political appetite for bail-outs
  15. wackawacka
    https://www.ft.com/content/ebba73d9-d319-4634-aa09-bbf09ee4a03b
  16. wackawacka
    This wasn't to save SVB but the potential run on regional banks that were expecting huge outflows Monday AM. Lots of noise from law firms and large banks on safety of regionals to FDIC had to do something to stop the Lehman moment.
  17. wackawacka
    are we here yet?
  18. wackawacka
    1234
  19. wackawacka
    While I am not concerned about depositors mostly if not full whole, this is the short-term issue. Loan docs from VCs are circulating to fund payroll in many circles to help with short-term issue but that assumes you are on good terms with your VC or they are vultures when many are.
  20. wackawacka
    I would expect 2 or 3 regional banks to also fail after this...all near to SVB customer base.
  21. wackawacka
    Lulz Crytpo being taken down another notch by a bank failure.
  22. wackawacka
    - FT Not sure why people are advocating for bail out unless they were caught on the wrong side the trade.
  23. wackawacka
    The floor has been set per Bloomberg
  24. wackawacka
    City hasn't bounced back. I usually feel a vibe shift when this comes to town. The city actually feels more dead than usual
  25. wackawacka
    Venture analysis: ~67% of deposits easily covered 30% hard to market loans would need to be a haircut of 5%-10% for the deposits to be under water Most expect worse case that deposits take max 10% haircut but believe if not rapid sell off of loan portfolio then deposits will be made 100% whole. Issue is more timing of selling HTM loan portfolio

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