I think the Covid senior thing has really brought home something that I should have already realized - super veteran QBs are a cheat code in CFB. Before Covid it was unheard of for there to be a guy on his 6th or even 7th year in CFB, but then we got to see what several teams look like with that kind of player running things. Obviously the talent level is lower, or the QB would be in the NFL, but the experience is a game changer. Vandy has one of the most veteran QBs in all of FBS. The dude literally established legal precedent for how long one can tease out the college career. Pavia makes Vandy dangerous.
That being said, I just don't think Vandy has the horses. I will be shocked and impressed if they can win even 1 of the three games you mentioned. If they win 2, then they deserve to be in the early CFP conversation. Personally, I don't see it. Pavia maximizes what they can do, but they are still a scrappy underdog at best. When push comes to shove, the team talent will be too much for them to overcome.
This is an excellent point, not just about what we need Arch to do in order to win, but also about what we want Arch focused on. If he thinks he has to look like superman in order for us to win games, then he starts pressing again and we see him start to hesitate on open guys and throwing more worm burners. He needs to just focus on picking up yards and avoiding bad plays. I get @Codaxx's concerns about the defense, but I think the defense is still more than good enough to carry us through 99% of our schedule.
I understand your worries about Guilbeau - he is definitely the weak spot - but our IDL is so much better than it was last season. In fact our entire front 7 is better than it was last season. Losing a guy like Barron was always going to make the secondary a bit worse, he was just a rare talent and football brain. But we are so much stronger in the box that I think it more than makes up for that loss. Edge, DT, and LB are all elite, and a good pass rush makes the DB's job easier. I tend to focus on that and just hope Guilbeau can be competent (which is what he seems to be).
The OL is definitely worse than last season, but by how much? And for how long will it be worse? By getting the right guys out there and giving them time to gel, I think the are only a small step back. And if Baxter is healthy then I think our RB room is better and will look closer to how we looked in '23 than we looked last season. Not trying to rag on you for your concerns, but I think you are focused on the negative.
In the ven diagram of pants pissing, you and I are most aligned about what the run game will look like going into Red River. I don't know if a bye week and Florida will be enough time for the OL to get its shit together. So I agree that the run game could still be a WIP by then. But I doubt it takes longer than Vandy or otherwise we really need to worry (even more) about what the fuck Flood is doing with that room.