I've got two thoughts about what you've said - not really complete arguments, but I want to put them out there.
1. A coin flip has even odds (50/50) of coming up heads or tails, but if you flip a coin ten times the odds of it coming up heads every time is 1/1024. It's not as simply as looking at the odds for each individual coin flip - you have to look at the series. That's what football seasons usually feel like to me. It's not just the individual games, it's the entire season of them.
2. The argument that we should beat every team that we're more talented than flies in the face of our history as a program, and the proud CFB tradition of more talented teams losing to less talented teams. It happens every year, in every conference, and it happens a lot.
I'm not sure how those thoughts fit into this conversation, something about math and history, but I would assume that is why Vegas had us at 9.5 wins instead of 11.