They're not wrong, but it also depends on the kid and on context. Some of the big, late flips in the '22 class were because of coaching changes. I don't think we can depend on that this season. When Hill committed to A&M in '23, I was still optimistic about our chances - the Aggies are a shitshow and I just didn't see them hanging on to a prospect wasn't a complete fucking moron. Are those kinds of shifts going to happen again this season? Do we want to bank on LSU or Oregon tripping at the finish line?
My point isn't that you or anyone else is wrong when they say that there is still a lot of time until signing day and that Sark has been good at closing late in the game. Those are reasons for optimism. But I don't think that means there isn't any cause for concern either. It seems inarguable that it is better to have a guy committed to Texas at the start of the season than committed elsewhere - it's easier to hold onto guys than it is to flip them.
I don't have any facts to back this up, but it also seems like NIL has reduced the amount of late season craziness. I don't know if they're signing contracts or it's just "a bird in the hand," but prospects feel like they're more locked into their commitments over the last few cycles.