Here is what Bill Connelly / SP+ predicted before the Bama game in 2023:
Current line: Bama -7 | SP+ projection: Bama by 12.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.8
Source: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38346795/college-football-week-2-texas-bama-texas-miami-bets-picks-more
I like Connelly and I like SP+, but his model struggles early in the season. Same as FPI, same as literally everyone. There is not enough data to go on, especially for a week 1 game. I'm picking Texas and I think this game will look more like Michigan in 2024 and less like Bama in 2023. We have the QB advantage and we have the better defense. Those two factors alone decide 90% of college football games. Our secondary is going to make reading the field and making safe throw hard on the inexperienced (although clearly talented) Sayin, and he isn't going to have much time to do his job with our DL crashing down on him. OSU's best bet will be to lean on their run game, but that neutralizes their biggest asset in WR Jeremiah Smith.
I don't know what to make of our OL at this point, which makes it hard to predict how well the offense will do as a whole. But I'm pretty sure we can run block even if our pass block is deficient due to injuries. We definitely have the better stable of RBs. We can lean on our run game if we need to, which is a cornerstone of Sark's offense anyway.
Maybe I'm too much of a homer, but there it seems like everything lines up favorably for Texas. OSU is clearly an excellent team with a talented roster, but styles make fights and, at least at this point in the season, I think we are a terrible match up for what they want to do.