What's weird is that if you go back and watch the first quarter again, Manning was more or less fine. The run game was fine. The WR didn't have to do much, but they looked okay. Even the OL was doing its job most of the time (except Stroh, who still managed to fall on his ass every third play). The offense didn't cover itself in glory, and it was disconcerting that they weren't demolishing UTEP, but it all looked okay.
But at the beginning of the second quarter the offense was in the red zone. Only about 5 yards to go. Manning misses a wide open shot to Wingo - he just throws it too far and to the outside. One of those throws that you want back, but whatever. The very next play is the one where he has Livingstone open, won't throw the ball, scrambles for like 8 seconds and then throw across his body for a pick.
It was 4th and 3, so it didn't make a huge difference, but that was when it all fell apart for the offense. Arch wasn't the same after that, and the rest of the team just seemed to feed off of that lack of confidence.