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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. The EC ensures that is the case, has nothing to do with Trump or Russia. Unless you're implying Trump is going to rig the 2024 election, despite not having the levers of power nationally or in 6/7 swing states. When he couldn't even do it as POTUS in 2020.
  2. 10-0 run to close a set is a lot, but I've seen teams go 6-0 or 8-0 to close a set while facing a set point.
  3. Kiggans won by 3.4 in a much redder environment (R+ 2.7 nationally). We are seeing generic congressional numbers around D+3-5, so it could flip. It's currently a lean R race according to Cook. As I posted in the House thread, the lack of district-level polls means we are prime for some "wtf" kind of upsets in November since no one polled them.
  4. I think maybe it was post-debate and pre-Harris. It is not now. It's funny, post-debate, Biden's campaign basically was "can we defend MN/VA/NH and just win MI/WI/PA and eek out a win?" and now it is basically Howard Dean "we are winning AZ and NV and GA and MI and WI and PA and NC!!!! yeahhhhhhh!" while the Trump strategy went from "oh man, we can pick off NM, VA, MN, NH and easily win back GA, MI, PA, WI and win this going away" to "oh fuck, we have to defend NC and try to win back P and GA or we are fucked"
  5. Also worth mentioning with Trump pulling out of NH, MN, VA - downballot effects of not having a campaign presence, money or ads: NH governor race (open), NH-01 (even) and NH-02 (D+2) MN-02 (D+1) VA-02 (R+2), VA-07 (D+1), VA-05 (R+7, but local Republicans want to write in Bob Good, who lost the primary)
  6. I mean, "raising money," sure, but they raised less than July last month. Granted, July was a big month (assassination attempt, Biden dropping out, RNC), but they only managed $137.5m in July and $130m in August. They couldn't even use the rage baiting of the DNC/Walz's selection to gin up money. Harris raised nearly Trump's August amount from the 24 hours after Walz was announced ($36m) and the 4 days of the DNC ($82M). She's going to have a huge August haul when she announces, and then you will have the debate haul. 2 of Act Blue's biggest donation days in 2020 were the debate + day after (and the day after RBG died).
  7. So I need a $10m/yr salary, got it.
  8. Looks like a YTTV 3 week trial offer is up. Hopefully this DTV/Disney slap fight can be resolved in less than 3 weeks, but at least I have some option.
  9. So 6 year degree to work at a daycare, but a HS graduate who served in the military (so probably has massive PTSD) can be a K-12 teacher without a college degree or any formal training. Got it.
  10. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/05/sport/ugandan-olympian-rebecca-cheptegei-dies-intl/index.html Rebecca Cheptegei, a Ugandan marathon runner who competed in the Paris Olympics last month, has died days after she was burned by her boyfriend, the country’s athletics federation confirmed on X, formerly known as Twitter, Thursday. “We are deeply saddened to announce the passing of our athlete, Rebecca Cheptegei early this morning who tragically fell victim to domestic violence,” the Uganda Athletics Federation posted. “As a federation, we condemn such acts and call for justice. May her soul rest In Peace.” Cheptegei, 33, who lived in Kenya, had been in a critical condition after suffering burns on 75% of her body following Sunday’s attack at her house in the western Trans Nzoia County. Her death was also confirmed on X by the Kenyan Olympic Team. Cheptegei finished 44th in the women’s marathon at the Olympics weeks ago. Trans Nzoia County police commander Jeremiah ole Kosiom said earlier this week that the athlete had been doused in petrol by her boyfriend, Dickson Ndiema, who stormed her house with a jerry can of gasoline and set fire to her after a disagreement over land. Ndiema, who was also burned, is being treated at a hospital in the city of Eldoret. Cheptegei is the third elite female athlete to be killed in Kenya in the last three years.
  11. Well the big thing was that there were some questionably-reputable polls showing VA with a Harris +3 lead (Biden won it by 10.1 and this signals those polls were pretty awful. Also that in 2016, MN was Clinton +1.5 and Virginia was Clinton +5.3 Not surprising Trump is going all-in on GA/PA and defending NC. Not even mentioning AZ or MI/WI means his campaign knows he has one path and one path only.
  12. Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC.
  13. Allan Lichtman has issued his prediction - Kamala Harris will win the election in November. He has predicted every election correctly since 1984, with the exception of 2000, which - come on, Gore won. SCOTUS stole it from him. She holds the edge with 8 keys, Trump in 3, with 2 not yet decided (foreign policy successes/failures) https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-kamala-harris-prediction/ I like him because, even though he (correctly) predicted Trump would win in 2016, he thinks Nate Silver is a doofus.
  14. Probably going to be a lot of “woah who saw that coming!!?!?” On election night
  15. It was a poll of 3000 Latinos. I buy this poll more than the tiny subsamples of 100 or so
  16. Unidos poll of Latinos - Harris 59, Trump 31. On par with 2020 Mexicans go for Harris 59-30 and she’s tied at 47 with Trump with Cubans. Puerto Ricans go 57-31 Harris
  17. Typically you’re supposed to raise more each month until the election. Trump is going backwards. He also raised like $210m in August 2020, soooo this blows for him
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