Js1

Trump campaign on CNN saying it won’t be called tonight They scared. I thought it was in the bag?

We ain’t neighbors anymore. Come and find me

I am scared of a pending deification of me when Harris wins.

Okay, handing it over to you degenerates for a couple hours

Man, I think we win this game with Mark. He's probably our 2nd best player, but our best collegiate player (since Johnson is clearly our best pro prospect player). That was a huge hole to have to fill last night.

@BamaATL Just read that Georgia is expect 1.2m as a baseline for today, instead of the ceiling

Well I can tell you this much - MAGA Election Twitter is hardcore dooming about the NV E-Day vote. And its about to flip on Polymarket to Harris

Maricopa E-Day votes (as of 9am) 40-42% R, it was 58% R in 2020 Indies are key here - almost 40% of the vote today itself, and only 2k votes behind GOP in the county so far. I think the big 2024 post-mortem is going to be: "The indies decided the elections"

Philly vote tracker says they are at 70% of 2020 E-Day vote in Clark looks like 33/33/33. It was 50% R in 2020. They definitely cannibalized their E-Day vote.

I don't think FL is going to tell us anything. It did not tell us shit in 2020 or 2022. In fact, it scared the shit out of everyone. The *only* tea leaf I might read out of FL is Duvall and Tampa - this could show further erosion of the suburbs for Trump.

As of this morning, with the early vote in and the morning turnout: I feel extremely good about Michigan I feel really good about Pennsylvania I feel cautiously optimistic about Georgia and Nevada I am leaning Wisconsin to Harris (but she doesn't need it if she wins GA/PA/MI), mostly due to the strength of organizing, Ben Wikler and Milwaukee/Dane turning the fuck out My gut says NC is going to flip, but I haven't seen much about NC turnout today.

President/GM Jerry Jones.

I believe 538, Economist and Silver Bulletin all flipped to Harris this morning/overnight.

It's already been revised up again; they are doing what they need to do. There's still 8 hours of voting in PA to go and the busiest times are first thing in the morning, lunch time and in the evening after work.

PA E-Day looks good - Philly is popping off Atlanta E-Day looks good - 30k votes already in Fulton County, halfway to what they need to hit 2020 turnout NV E-Day looks good too Michigan SOS says they are on track to break turnout records

Yeah, I am not dooming over Arizona Indies are bigger than in Nevada, and they're likely mostly young, POCs or former McCain Republicans. She is going to get a lot of crossover support from McCain Republicans who are still registered with the GOP.

From my fave nerd:

Then you haven't been on the 538 megathread today on reddit lol GOP is +300k or so on Dems in the early vote, but there's 700k indie votes sitting there. GOP is bigly outvoting Dems in Maricopa this morning, but jesus christ, it's 9am there. The old people have been awake for 5 hours already.

Alberta is the most plugged in from The Atlantic with the Trump campaign, so... Good morning and happy Election Day. The closest I'll come to a prediction: Eight years ago, I wrote about the conflict between my brain and my gut. Everything I knew (state data, demographic trends, etc) pointed to a Clinton victory. Yet everything I saw (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Clinton) suggested Trump would win. Today feels eerily similar—with the roles reversed. Everything I know (high floor, erosion within the Dem coalition, good environment) points to a Trump victory. Yet everything I see (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Trump) suggests Harris will win. My brain has told me, since springtime, that Trump is the favorite. That didn't change when Harris took over the ticket; I told audiences throughout September and part of October that I thought he'd win. But my gut—especially over these last two weeks—keeps saying Harris, and maybe even Harris by a comfortable margin. Bottom line: a massacre in the suburbs would realign the electorate more than any shift among urban non-whites. Trump may well improve in Detroit, but if he loses Oakland County by 20 points it ain't gonna matter.

The big thing is whether the GOP did truly eat into their E-Day votes this time around. And it looks quite possible, which is likely why Ralston predicts Harris wins the state. The dooming over AZ is something to behold - yes, the GOP has a massive edge, but this is the state of McCain Republicans. And indies are 700k early votes.

Personal training. Not work training. I'm going to let some guy kick my ass for an hour to blow out the anxiety.

Also nobody needs to do a welfare check on me between 10:45 and noon (central time) - I have a nice hour long training session with my phone in a locker and then running to the dispensary and Target to load up for tonight.

Philly is popping off today as we approach 10:30am on the east coast. Estimated day of turnout: 262,883 Estimated total turnout so far: 441,085 out of 2020's 749,000

The media may not call anything before Thursday, but we will know, likely by tonight. If Trump just blows out his 2020-margins in GA/NC and wins both, he probably won. If Harris flips NC, she won. If she wins GA and he wins NC, we will know the winner based on Michigan, who will report most of their votes tonight. She wins Michigan, it's Joever for him.