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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    I take back anything nice I said about DDHQ - their main guy is on twitter claiming Nevada is 100% going for Trump because "there's not many ballots left to be dropped off in Clark" - when THE guy in Nevada just went on TV and said there's a gigantic backlog of mail in Clark County, waiting to be processed. Be careful, y'all - people are going to interpret (or misinterpret) data as they see fit today. Lot of hot takes for pre-noon turnouts, which are traditionally more GOP-leaning. Don't fall into the Wasserman's dooming about 12pm turnouts that turned around pretty quickly by the end of the day (ended up being a 10k, 3.5% loss, versus Dave dooming it would be a blowout)
  2. Js1
    And a state famous for it's 24 hour industries. Like put all the casino people into tabulating ballots. It would be done in a day.
  3. Js1
    It sounds like the backup is with the county office processing them and inputting them into the spreadsheet, not the postal service. They are in the county office, but there's not enough staff or machines to process.
  4. Js1
    Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected - Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao. Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish.
  5. Js1
    One thing for sure - Everyone flipped out about O'Malley-Dillon saying something yesterday that results in one state do not translate to other states. A lot of people thought she was talking about the Selzer poll and just because Harris may do well in Iowa, it may not translate to Wisconsin/Michigan/Penn. I took it the other way, like 2020 and 2022 - Florida will count fast, and could go for Trump by a larger margin than 2020, and we will know early, but Florida's vote is not at all indicative of how GA/NC/MI/WI/PA will go. We saw this in 2022 - DeSantis won that race by like a billion points and Dems still had a great night across the upper midwest, NV, AZ, etc. Same with 2020 - Trump won by FL by 2x his 2016 margin, but that did not translate into winning MI, WI, PA, NV, he lost AZ, he lost GA, his NC margin was cut in half from 2016.
  6. Js1
    Don't look at the early numbers there. Woof. But granted, it's early. But if the GOP is just sinking votes in FL at the expense of northern states becoming bluer, I'll take it.
  7. Js1
    I know some people get mandatory time off to vote on E-Day only (my work doesn't give time off for early voting, just E-Day).
  8. Js1
  9. Js1
    Vance interviewed going into his polling place, sounded nervous af
  10. Js1
    Helio. Duh
  11. Js1
    It’s Guam so….
  12. Js1
    Wut
  13. Js1
    Jonathan Martin (Politico) was on MSNBC and said he’s heard of similar private polling in Iowa that’s not far off from Selzer.
  14. Js1
    Her polling is also expensive af, which is why she only dropped 3 general election polls in 5 months.
  15. Js1
    Yep. Women are going to crawl through broken glass in hell to vote today, regardless of weather. The voters Trump needs to turn out are gonna see rain and lines and just fire up a bowl and play COD instead
  16. Js1
    It does look like yesterday’s PA mail updated this morning. 419k (D-R) and hit 507k with the indies (if they split 70-30)
  17. Js1
    115k votes in the first hour in Philly. They gotta show up big and that’s really good.
  18. Js1
  19. Js1
    I encourage you all to do the following between now and 6pm est: Take a nap Go work out or something to calm yourself down Get your snacks (and alcohol) ahead of time Charge your devices to max
  20. Js1
  21. Js1
    Well my brothers and sisters, it’s been a hell of a ride with y’all. Let’s see what happens today.
  22. Js1
    It’s a small rural town almost in Canada. It’s super weird, period. It’s just fun
  23. Js1
    They always have the fastest results and make the quickest calls.
  24. Js1
    Dixville Notch is 4 registered GOP and 2 indies. So she won the indies and stole a crossover vote!
  25. Js1
    They tried to incorporate early and mail exits in 2020 and they sucked then too 2012 all over again! Book it

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